The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for profit to go! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to deliver the most valuable market information to fellow cryptocurrency enthusiasts. Welcome everyone to follow and like, and reject any market smokescreens!

After a day of fluctuations, the entire March 10th saw a high of 71777 and a low of 68391, with the whole day competing around the key point of seventy thousand. The range was not large, only maintaining around 3000 points. The fluctuation of Ether was even smaller, ranging from 2088 to 1990, which was surprisingly less than one hundred points. I believe everyone can see that the pressure position of Ether is entirely different from that of Bitcoin; the competition for Ether more often starts at the 2100 position. The most stable cryptocurrency recently has surprisingly been OKB, hovering around 95-100 points. The fluctuations of all cryptocurrencies undoubtedly indicate the end of a one-sided market, which is basically consistent with our previous predictions, and they are all in a trend of consolidating upwards. From the monthly chart, there is a clear signal of stabilization; the one-sided downward trend has lasted nearly five monthly candles, plus this month coincides with half a year, extremely matching the cyclical volatility of half a year, which is also something Lao Cui mentioned last year that the downward range would not exceed half a year.

Why is there a half-year cycle? The logic is extremely simple: the current mining cost for Bitcoin miners is maintained above eighty thousand. The latest data shows that the average cost for March has reached around 87K. Since the opening of the downward range, the overall price has remained below the cost line for two consecutive months, which is enough to destroy some mining sites. Several mining companies have chosen to liquidate Bitcoin and transition to AI data centers. Core Scientific sold about 1900 Bitcoins in January 2026, planning to transform its Texas mining site into an AI hosting facility. MARA authorized the sale of 53822 Bitcoins and partnered with Starwood Capital to build a 1GW AI data center. Cango sold 4451 Bitcoins in February 2026 for debt repayment and AI transition. Bitcoin Deer cleared its holdings while expanding its self-operated computing power to the largest in the world. After the transition of mining companies, the power resources are used for AI hosting, with a valuation premium exceeding 10 times. On-chain data shows that miner sell-offs may signal a market bottom.

Many friends feel that miner data is not worth referencing, but Lao Cui now tells everyone that throughout history, there has hardly ever been data that persists for more than half a year! Miners cannot hold on to cryptocurrencies, and the operation of the blockchain is also inseparable from miners. The heat of AI leads to the loss of miners, which in itself is a fundamental harm. Do you think that the giants' frenzied purchases are just for this wave of madness? Continuous profit or one-time liquidation, these are considerations for the leaders. Adding to this, recent news from Musk indicates that XMoney will launch Bitcoin services next month, and Musk's ecosystem for XMoney will benchmark against a certain messaging service, which means he will create a global payment system similar to that service. Do not use domestic targets as a reference; once the system is formed, it will bring an infinite influx of funds to the entire cryptocurrency market. Everyone can imagine, if your messaging service allows you to purchase any global asset, would you choose to buy?

One of the biggest advantages of cryptocurrencies is their divisible nature. While it cannot harvest capital from domestically, this is a global system building. Many things cannot be intuitively expressed in the article; perhaps Lao Cui's proposed target of eighty thousand for March seems distant to you, but please be a bit more patient. The establishment of the X system will definitely bring about the market conditions you desire. This time’s Bitcoin service is not just about looking at a K-line chart so easily. Meanwhile, since Musk's announcement, Saylor purchased $1.28 billion worth of Bitcoin through STRC, and the capital for purchases is increasing. These are all trends that need verification over time. Next, let’s talk about short-term fluctuations; many friends are worried about whether the lack of interest rate cuts in the future will allow the cryptocurrency market to take this opportunity for another round of dumping.

This lack of interest rate cuts is indeed a bearish signal. March itself does not belong to the interest rate cut category within the annual dot plot. Therefore, the probability of this forecast for no interest rate cuts is indeed high, almost reaching 99%. Starting today, we will welcome the release of this week's CPI and PCE data, and there is no need to expect that during the Asian session, it will definitely continue to be a bullish trend. As long as the news released is not favorable for interest rate cuts, it will likely lead to a market dump. Don’t think that Lao Cui sees the eighty thousand mark as a purely bullish trend; such short-term dumps will definitely happen. However, there will not be another one-sided drop like before, which fell by thousands or even tens of thousands of points. Looking back at this month’s trends, the strength of the dump is getting weaker and is not maintaining the one-sided downward trend of the previous five months; this is extremely critical. To cause a dump, one must closely watch the bottom space; subtle hints are always a capital tactic. Miners have already cleared 15,000 Bitcoins; who among you still has BTC that has not flowed out?

Focus on the on-chain data. Lao Cui has been talking about it for almost a month, yet many friends still do not pay much attention to on-chain data. Ether has maintained nearly two months of active volume; whether in contract trading or spot fluctuations, it has gradually set historical highs, yet the price has not been able to break through. The reason given by Vitalik is the diversion of data, and he listed competitive channels as the main competitors; this type of news is a typical smokescreen. None of the data indicates large whales are exiting, which can only mean that he is indeed selling. The current active volume of Ether, based on the existing circulation data, can at least correspond to a price near 3000; exchanges prefer Ether’s stock much more than Bitcoin’s, which is completely the opposite; many exchanges store much more Ether than Bitcoin funds. The key issue here is the channel issue; much of the circulation of USDT and USDC is completed through the Ether channel. Therefore, in terms of these data, the volatility of Ether this year may be more rapid than BTC.

Lao Cui summarizes: Overall, those doing contracts should pay more attention to short-term fluctuations, and today there will be a wave of market activity. This means today’s data release, and with the military conflict in mind, the direct release of data will definitely be unfavorable for interest rate cuts; thus, the emergence of this signal will lead to a short-term downward trend, which is what you all want for short selling; do not think about new lows. The depth of the decline will be controllable. This is true for Bitcoin, and likewise for Ether. The growth during the Asian session can be attributed to preparing for nighttime, making the data more supportive of the bearish side; remember not to pursue depth, just focus on profits. In terms of spot, the foreseeable trend is growth; this year there is only a path of growth, and currently the number of bullish messages is increasing; the trend of the market is basically moving in accordance with positive messages, and the lower support level remains very solid. Those with significant capital must focus on Bitcoin as the primary target.

Original creation WeChat public account: Lao Cui Speaks on Currency. For assistance, please contact directly.

Lao Cui’s message: Investing is like playing chess. Experts can foresee five moves, seven, or even a dozen moves, while the unskilled can only see two or three moves. The skilled consider the overall situation and plan for the larger trend, not clinging to one piece in one place, aiming for ultimate victory, while the unskilled fight for every inch, frequently switching long and short, just battling for a moment's short line, ultimately getting stuck frequently.

This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute buying or selling advice. Trading based on this is at your own risk!

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