CoinW Research Institute

Abstract

Recently, the interest in prediction markets has been rising steadily. Opinion, as one of the projects attracting market attention, attempts to convert people's judgments about real-world events into tradeable probability assets through an on-chain protocol. The project proposes the concept of "Multiplayer Internet," hoping to form a priceable and verifiable collective consensus on-chain through market mechanisms. In terms of product design, Opinion adopts an order book-based (CLOB) trading structure, combined with on-chain settlement and AI-assisted oracle mechanisms, to construct a prediction market infrastructure similar to an "on-chain event exchange." The project has previously completed approximately $25 million in financing and will complete the OPN token TGE and go live for trading on March 5, 2026. However, the market performance post-launch has been generally cautious, with the combination of high valuation and airdrop sell pressure putting pressure on token prices. At the same time, the airdrop distribution ratio, claiming mechanism, and potential regulatory issues for the prediction market have also sparked discussions within the community.

1. Project Introduction

What is Opinion doing?

Opinion is a decentralized protocol built around prediction markets. It aims to turn people's judgments about real-world events, such as macro data trends, policy outcomes, or major news directions, into assets that can be traded on-chain. In the traditional internet, opinions are merely expressed: posting, commenting, and sharing, with very low costs and difficulty in verifying whose judgment is more accurate. Opinion attempts to establish a new mechanism where when you have a judgment about something, you need to participate in the market with funds, and the market price will automatically reflect the collective probability expectations. Price becomes the digital expression of consensus. The official term for this concept is "Multiplayer Internet." It emphasizes that the internet is not only a space for information dissemination but also an economic system where multiple participants engage, compete, and set prices collaboratively. Opinions are thus quantified, verified, and ultimately settled by the market.

Technology and Product Structure

From the overall architecture, Opinion can be understood as a three-layer system: the underlying protocol defines how events are created and settled; the liquidity and matching layer is responsible for trade execution and price formation; the front-end application serves as the entry point for users to actually participate in prediction trading. Opinion has chosen a Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) matching model. Users can place limit orders like in traditional exchanges, with buyers and sellers matching orders to transact, and prices formed by real trading depth. This structure is closer to the market mechanism of centralized exchanges, emphasizing price discovery under multi-participant competition rather than relying on algorithmic curves to derive prices automatically. From the perspective of information discovery, the order book model facilitates more detailed price levels and fuller competition, making it more conducive to forming probability prices with reference value. However, it also places higher demands on liquidity, requiring continuous market-making support and active user participation.

At the event settlement level, Opinion introduces an AI-assisted oracle mechanism to help parse complex real-world information, such as policy texts and macro data releases. The outcome is not determined by AI, but instead, through technical means, turns unstructured information into clear, verifiable settlement conditions, thereby reducing disputes and ambiguities. Opinion's product approach is not merely to replicate traditional prediction markets, but rather to construct an infrastructure framework closer to that of an "on-chain event exchange": the order book is responsible for forming real prices, the protocol layer ensures clarity in settlement logic, and AI assistance lowers information processing costs.

How do opinions turn into "prices"?

In Opinion's system, an event is not just voted on, but will be split into tradeable "result assets." For example: "Will the CPI announced next month be above 3%?" This question will be divided into two result tokens: YES (will be above 3%) and NO (will not be above 3%). Since an event can ultimately only have one result, the price of these two tokens usually sums up to close to $1.

Assuming the current price of YES is $0.7 and NO is $0.3, it means the market overall believes the probability of the event occurring is about 70%. This price is formed by the buy and sell actions of all participants. When more people are willing to pay a higher price for a certain result, the market probability rises; conversely, it decreases. After the event is announced, the market settles according to the result: if the CPI is above 3%, the YES token settles at $1, and NO drops to zero; if it is not above 3%, the NO token settles at $1, and YES drops to zero. So when a user buys YES at $0.7, they are essentially purchasing an asset that may turn into $1 in the future, with profits depending on the accuracy of their judgment.

This mechanism is similar to the basic logic of prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, but Opinion emphasizes the decentralized protocol structure and on-chain settlement, hoping to become reusable infrastructure rather than just a single trading platform. Unlike liking expressions, this mechanism requires judgment to incur costs. When opinions need to bear risk, noise naturally reduces, and prices have a better opportunity to effectively reflect collective cognition.

2. Market Dynamics

Funding and Institutional Endorsement

Since its establishment, Opinion has raised approximately $25 million, reflecting strong capital recognition. The seed round in 2025 was led by YZi Labs and attracted participation from well-known Web3 investment institutions such as Animoca Ventures and Amber Group. The endorsement from YZi Labs has provided Opinion with opportunities for close collaboration with the BNB Chain ecosystem, integrating broader strategic resources into the project. At the beginning of 2026, it received support from more technically-oriented capital, including Jump Crypto and Hack VC, which have rich investment and resource integration experience in DeFi and infrastructure projects. This type of funding not only provides long-term financial support for Opinion's technological research and development but also helps it establish a relatively solid strategic network within the industry.

Heat of the Prediction Market Track: Continuously Heating Structural Opportunities

In recent years, the prediction market as a niche track has significantly increased in intensity, gradually evolving from a relatively niche play into a more serious and applicable tool. On one hand, macroeconomic data, central bank policies, etc., have become targets of interest for traders, leading to an increased demand for probabilistic judgment; on the other hand, on-chain prediction markets can convert collective judgments into price signals, a feature that many market participants value. Protocols like Opinion are attempting to shift traditional speculative prediction markets toward a more standardized, infrastructure layer, creating a more open market infrastructure. The prediction market is at a stage of transitioning from experimental plays to more mature infrastructure applications.

Airdrop Controversy

Prior to the TGE, the market had high expectations for the scale of Opinion's airdrop. Due to the project encouraging user participation in prediction trading and community activities through a points system over a long time, some over-the-counter markets even began to price the points. When the airdrop ratio was still unclear, related points in the OTC market peaked near $45/point. However, when the official announcement revealed the TGE airdrop ratio at about 3.5% of the total supply, market expectations quickly adjusted, and the points' price plummeted to around $6/point, a drop of over 80%, leading to strong dissatisfaction from community users.

Additionally, the total airdrop ratio of OPN is around 23.5%, but only approximately 3.5% was allocated for the initial distribution at TGE, with the rest needing to be gradually released in subsequent phases under various conditions. Some community users believe the initial release ratio is too low, creating a gap between expectations of early participants and contributors; moreover, the point acquisition and distribution mechanism is relatively complex, perceived by some users to have high comprehension costs. These factors have continued to spark discussions before and after the launch, affecting market sentiment to some extent.

TGE Launch and Initial Market Feedback

Opinion's token OPN completed its TGE on March 5, 2026, at 21:00 (Beijing Time) and went live for spot trading on several exchanges including Binance, Bitget, Gate, and CoinW. With the official circulation of the token, the project transitioned from the previous months of point incentives and speculative phase to the price discovery phase in the secondary market. According to the token economic model, the initial circulating amount at TGE accounted for about 19.85% of the total supply. This circulation mainly came from community incentives, Binance Launchpool rewards, and some liquidity allocation, which resulted in relatively limited tradable chips in the market initially.

Before the launch, Opinion had gained significant attention in the community based on the narrative around prediction markets, participation in Binance Launchpool, and high valuation financing background. However, in terms of actual market performance, OPN did not establish sustained buying support. After starting trading at a fully diluted valuation of about $450 million, it quickly faced selling pressure from airdrop and Launchpool users, causing the price to retrace and drop about 17.8% within less than 24 hours post-launch, with the current FDV around $370 million, and market sentiment becoming cautious.

This trend also reflects changes in prior market expectations. On one hand, incentives such as airdrops and Launchpool released a certain amount of circulation at TGE, with some users choosing to cash out their profits after the token went live, creating some selling pressure in the short term; on the other hand, discussions within the community surrounding airdrop scale, point incentive mechanisms, and matching real usage demand also affected market confidence to some extent. Under the combination of multiple factors, the market performance of OPN in the early stages post-launch was generally weak.

3. Team Background

Opinion is developed by Opinion Labs, with a team that reflects a composite structure of traditional finance and blockchain technology. The project founder and CEO, Forrest Liu, graduated from Columbia University and previously worked in corporate financing and investment at CMB International Capital, possessing experience in private equity and institutional capital markets. On the technical side, co-founders have experience in quantitative trading and large system development, with publicly available data showing that some core members have worked at institutions like JPMorgan Chase, McKinsey & Company, and Amazon. However, compared to some leading prediction market projects, Opinion's team has a relatively limited level of public exposure, and there have been discussions within the community regarding transparency issues. Overall, Opinion's team advantage lies in the combination of financial and technical backgrounds, but long-term development still needs to be further validated through product performance and data growth.

4. Token Information

OPN is the native token of Opinion, with a total supply of 1 billion units. According to the token economic model disclosed by the official team, approximately 23.5% is reserved for airdrops and community incentives (with about 3.5% released at TGE), 23% allocated to investors, 19.5% allocated to the team and advisors, and the remaining portion used for ecosystem development, foundation, and marketing purposes. The team and investor portions typically have lock-up and linear release mechanisms to reduce short-term sell pressure risks.

In terms of design, OPN is the core functional asset of the entire "Multiplayer Internet" ecosystem. It can be used to access advanced data and oracle services, such as macro data analysis, prediction signals, and on-chain analytical tools. As ecosystem applications increase, some data services and analytical tools may require the use of OPN for access. OPN also serves as a credential for ecosystem usage and permissions. For instance, holding or using OPN in certain applications can grant transaction fee discounts, VIP privileges, or advanced features. Furthermore, OPN is used for protocol governance, allowing token holders to participate in voting decisions regarding key parameters, oracle rules, and ecosystem development directions.

Overall, the project aims to bind the value of the token with the development of the prediction market ecosystem through various scenarios such as data services, platform rights, and governance.

5. Competitive Landscape

Track Benchmarking and Competition Situation

From a track perspective, prediction markets are not a brand-new concept. Over the past few years, various projects with different models have emerged, such as Augur, Polymarket, and Kalshi. These platforms are all trying to convert people's judgments about future events into tradeable probability prices through market trading.

However, in terms of positioning, Opinion's approach is slightly different. Platforms like Polymarket or Kalshi are closer to single prediction trading platforms, where users primarily engage in market trading through their front-end; whereas Opinion emphasizes the role of protocol layer infrastructure, aiming to make different applications connect to the same prediction market infrastructure through standardized event tokens and shared liquidity mechanisms. Its goal is not just to be a prediction trading website but to become an underlying protocol for prediction markets. If this model can be established, it might theoretically allow multiple applications to share the same liquidity and market structure in the future, thereby enhancing overall market efficiency. However, this also means that the project needs to simultaneously promote both protocol ecosystem and trading market growth in its early stages, making the development difficulty relatively higher.

Market Share

Opinion had already accumulated a certain level of trading activity before the token launch. The platform went live on the BNB Chain in October 2025. According to research statistics from Messari, the average daily nominal trading volume on the platform was approximately $132.5 million during the first three weeks from October 24, 2025, to November 17, 2025, with a cumulative nominal trading volume exceeding $3.1 billion. With the increase in user participation, from November 11 to 17, 2025, Opinion's weekly nominal trading volume reached approximately $1.5 billion, accounting for about 40% of the global trading volume in prediction markets during that week, briefly surpassing Polymarket and Kalshi to become the prediction market platform with the highest trading volume for that week.

In terms of actual trading volume, according to data from DefiLlama, the platform's cumulative trading volume has approached $10 billion since its launch, with about $1.2 billion traded in the last 30 days, and an open interest of approximately $31 million, with TVL around $29 million. In the current prediction market track, Polymarket and Kalshi still hold strong brand and user bases, while Opinion has gained a certain market share in a short period thanks to its point incentive mechanism. However, these trading activities mainly occur at the application layer of the platform and do not entirely reflect on-chain data for the OPN token, thus its long-term value still depends on the continuous growth of prediction market trading demand.

Risks and Challenges

Despite the unique value that prediction markets offer in information discovery and probabilistic pricing, this track still carries certain uncertainties. Prediction markets often rely on oracles to obtain real-world data, and if there are disputes over data sources or settlement rules, it could affect market credibility, hence the relevant mechanisms need to operate long-term to verify stability. Secondly, Opinion's price relies on real trading to form, and if the number of market participants is insufficient, the price may struggle to adequately reflect real probabilities, affecting trading depth. Finally, since prediction markets involve trading outcomes of political, economic, or social events, some countries and regions might regard them as gambling or financial derivatives, thus there remains a certain gray area in policy terms. Future changes in regulatory attitudes could also impact the development of the entire track.

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