The current conflict in the Middle East has rapidly increased the prices of various energy commodities in the energy sector.

According to past historical experiences, once energy prices rise, they will quickly transmit to other industries and commodities, such as the most typical ones like chemicals, materials, and fertilizers, which in turn will affect bulk commodities like food.

In fact, this transmission effect is already happening now.

Sharing this transmission chain now does not imply suggesting readers invest in chemicals, materials, fertilizers, food, and other industries and commodities at this moment, but rather to express this viewpoint:

If one believes in this historically proven rule, one should not wait until now to act but should quietly and confidently lay the groundwork when they are "silent," deemed "to have no prospects," or "looked down upon."

Investing in these industries and commodities in the transmission chain now is somewhat akin to investing in precious metals—while they may continue to rise in the future, it is difficult to determine how much room there is for growth, how much potential is left, and whether the likelihood of rising is greater than that of falling, which demands a high level of personal capability.

If the skills are lacking, misjudging the situation could easily result in buying at a high price.

Conversely, if we lay the groundwork when they are "silent," we won't need to consider these concerns, and the only thing to do is to patiently wait, trading time for space.

On the other hand, if we look at the various messages and articles in the news media over the past few days, the tone is quite different, being overwhelmingly optimistic and excited.

This represents a complete turnaround from last year's end.

I will again use Goldman Sachs, which I mentioned a few days ago, as an example; they have released another report in the past few days, shifting from a bearish outlook last year to a highly bullish one.

Over the years, I have made it a point to look at the reports published by Wall Street investment banks and various domestic investment banks every year at the end of the year, paying special attention to the areas, industries, and targets they are bearish on.

Because within the things they are bearish about, there may be opportunities and potential treasures hidden.

Of course, this does not mean that I have a positive view on everything they are bearish about; for example, they are all bearish on China's real estate market for the next few years—on this point, I highly agree.

Rather, it means that among the things they are bearish on, there are occasionally things they overlook.

This is because institutions often make collective mistakes due to the "herd effect." Once an institution is swept away by this "herd effect," it is highly likely that their clients are also swept along, resulting in the market prices of their overlooked items being unreasonably depressed.

Moreover, I also pay attention to the industries and targets that some Wall Street companies and institutions are shorting.

Although some companies indeed have reason to short certain assets, there are also instances where some companies and institutions short certain targets purely because "when the wall falls, everyone pushes." They may simply be applying traditional models to inappropriate targets, further pushing down prices that are already depressed and loudly proclaiming "unreasonable prices," thus initiating their short positions.

In a relatively sluggish market, such short selling often brings about emotional effects, further driving the target's price down to unreasonable levels.

In fact, this period should present a good opportunity for real investors who understand these targets to step in.

Therefore, in times of market commotion, we should not be anxious or follow the crowd; instead, we might as well take a closer look at various fields, especially those that are currently being harshly criticized, deemed to be "finished," "hopeless," "without future," or "eliminated." Within these items, there is likely to be the next big opportunity.

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