Original Title: "The Hunter's Sense: a16z Bets $2 Billion on the Next Dawn of Web3"
Original Author: Eric, Foresight News
While the entire crypto industry is still shivering in winter, and countless VC firms choose to hold back, the so-called "most aggressive venture capital in Silicon Valley," a16z, once again lifted its shotgun.
According to Fortune magazine, a16z crypto is raising approximately $2 billion for its fifth fund, planning to complete the fundraising in the first half of 2026. Although this figure is half the size of the $4.5 billion "behemoth" from 2022, it is still enough to catch the attention of the entire industry in the current market environment. The similarly significant VC in the Web3 industry, Dragonfly, announced the size of its fourth fund to be only $650 million on February 17.
a16z's investment style in the Web3 industry is unique and has nearly predicted all the hot tracks. According to Fortune magazine, this time a16z's fundraising plan is very rushed, with only 3 months left in the time window and only investing in blockchain-related projects.
We can't help but ask: What exactly do they see?
A Venture Capital Revolution by Two Programmers
To understand a16z's choice today, we must return to that winter of 2009.
The shadow of the financial crisis had not yet lifted, and the air in Silicon Valley was filled with pessimism. Two already financially independent techies, Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz, decided to establish a venture capital firm at this worst possible time. Their first fund aimed for $300 million, with both of them committing $15 million.
How did the VC circle view this back then? "It's a stupid idea, absolutely shouldn't do it." This was how Ben Horowitz later recalled the comments from peers.
In addition to being seen as overly aggressive for a $300 million size, a16z's fundraising memo included a line that made peers laugh out loud: "We believe that technical talent is the primary resource, and therefore we will build a platform team to serve founders." Peers at the time believed this move would increase expenses and hurt returns, going against the traditional VC rule of "small but elite."
Today, almost all mainstream VCs are mimicking this "stupid idea," and that is a16z's gene: daring to say "yes" when others say "no."
In 2009, a16z participated in the acquisition of Skype with $65 million. At that time, eBay was engaged in a patent lawsuit with Skype's founders, and everyone said the risk was too high. Less than two years later, Microsoft acquired it for $8.5 billion.
In 2010, Benchmark partner Matt Cohler mocked a16z for buying shares in Facebook and Twitter on the secondary market as "speculating on pork futures." What was the outcome? Groupon went public at $17.8 billion, Facebook at $104 billion, and Twitter at $31 billion.
In 2015, a New Yorker journalist conveyed peers' skepticism: a16z wants to achieve 5-10 times returns for its first four funds, which requires the total valuation of the portfolio to reach hundreds of billions of dollars. Marc Andreessen made a dismissive gesture: "Nonsense. We are here to hunt elephants, to chase the big ones!"
Today, the total value of a16z's first four funds has reached $853 billion, far exceeding the initial threshold. Hunting elephants later became one of the classic phrases in the VC industry, and a16z's founders continuously use their experiences to inspire entrepreneurs: truly innovative ideas often look very stupid at first.
This is the hunter's sense.
Advance Layout in the Crypto Track
In 2013, when most people still regarded Bitcoin as "a geek's toy," a16z had already led the Series B financing for Coinbase. At that time, Ethereum had not yet been born.
Eight years later, Coinbase went public on Nasdaq, with a market value reaching $85.8 billion at one point. After cashing out $4.4 billion, a16z still holds 7% of the shares.
This is not luck, but foresight.
In 2018, the cryptocurrency market experienced its first bear market, with Bitcoin dropping from nearly $20,000 to over $3,000. At this time, a16z officially launched its first crypto fund, Crypto Fund I, with a size of $300 million.
This time, no one questioned their aggressiveness or model. The fund's choices were enough to silence doubters of Web3. Between 2018 and 2021, a16z's investments through its crypto fund included: MakerDAO (now named Sky), Compound, Uniswap, Solana, Avalanche, NEAR, dYdX, Dapper Labs, OpenSea, and Axie Infinity.
According to DefiLlama data, the TVL of the three DeFi projects, Sky, Compound, and Uniswap, exceeded $11.4 billion, accounting for nearly 12% of the overall DeFi project TVL. Although many names we were familiar with four or five years ago are hiding in the dust of history, you cannot deny that their past glory still influences today's Web3 world.
The first fund's holdings had already increased 11 times in value by the end of 2021 compared to the initial fundraising amount, making it one of a16z's best-performing funds. Even in 2022, when it fell by 40%, investors still profited significantly.
The success of Crypto Fund I made a16z the most attractive firm among crypto VCs. In 2020, the second fund raised $515 million. In 2021, the third fund raised $2.2 billion. In 2022, the fourth fund raised $4.5 billion. Accumulating over $7.6 billion in ammunition enabled a16z to become the world's largest crypto venture capital firm. Projects they invested in afterward, such as Optimism, LayerZero, Lido, and EigenLayer, have also become leaders in their respective tracks.
Of course, a16z also chases trends and has made investment missteps. In the battle for prediction markets, a16z also chose to double down on Kalshi; investments in Celo, Chia, Dfinity, and Farcaster, upon reflection, also exhibited some judgment errors.
In this cycle, a16z has shown a relatively negative attitude toward inscriptions and memes. Its investments of tens of millions to over a hundred million dollars in "VC coins" have faced unprecedented setbacks. However, L2, LSD, re-staking, and interoperability can indeed be said to be the only "Web3 Native" narratives, which a16z has successfully captured.
You could argue they have an elitist arrogance, but it's hard to say they are inexperienced.
The Double Life of a "Media Company"
In the Web3 field, a16z, almost like royalty, has never ceased to be controversial.
In 2015, former a16z partner Benedict Evans joked that a16z is a media company that makes money through venture capital. This statement later became a classic phrase for critiquing a16z both inside and outside the industry.
In 2021, a16z launched Future.com, a centralized media platform, attempting to create a "content empire" in the tech field. However, this project was shut down after 18 months of operation. The failure of Future.com did not deter a16z from its media strategy. On the contrary, they adjusted their direction—from building a centralized media platform to constructing a decentralized "media ecosystem."
In April 2025, a16z acquired Erik Torenberg's podcast network Turpentine. This was a typical acquisition + talent recruitment deal, allowing a16z to expand its media and network business through the acquisition of Turpentine, while Erik Torenberg joined a16z to head investment and lead the media team. Seven months later, a16z officially launched a16z New Media.
In the official article "What is New Media?", a16z stated that the goal of the "New Media" team is to create the best turnkey media operation in the venture capital field, helping founders of portfolio companies win narrative wars, and more importantly, bypass traditional media.
In the AI era, the threshold for product development has been nearly reduced to zero, but the ability to tell stories has unexpectedly seen a heightened priority. Giants like Anthropic, OpenAI, Netflix, and Microsoft have significantly expanded their communications/storytelling teams. If you've recently seen on social media that without AI, you'd be eliminated, that opinion definitely comes from some of these AI companies.
After all, in an era where products can be created in a few hours, those who can sell products and services through storytelling are the ones who will survive.
I have heard many people complain about a16z, claiming they lack real substance and often just help the companies they invest in tell their stories, waiting for the next investors to come in. It seems that this storytelling ability has become a rare commodity in the AI era. Perhaps a16z's ability to see trends ahead of others is a story that a16z tells itself, but I recently heard an interesting story:
a16z is a nerd-friendly VC that is very keen to find those who are overlooked due to a lack of social skills. These individuals are often inarticulate but have a wealth of wild ideas that seem nearly impossible to achieve to most people or are contrary to current mainstream perceptions. Their shortcomings make it difficult for them to stand out in the battlefield of human nature, but a16z has found them and brought them together.
When like-minded peers gather, a fierce chemical reaction occurs between them, allowing a16z's uniqueness to thrive.
The reasoning is simple: these individuals do not need to face complex business wars, but act as strategists behind the generals who enter battle. Visionary foresight and a calm mind always allow them to carve alternative paths. More importantly, no one initially dismisses a strange idea here, because while outsiders may think they are crazy, those within the team know that this might be the only best answer.
Where Will the $2 Billion Be Invested?
Since October 2024, the cryptocurrency market has experienced a significant correction, with over $2 trillion in total market value evaporating. In such an environment, many crypto VCs choose to scale back.
But a16z's choice is: to double down against the trend.
Chris Dixon has repeatedly stated that the assets held by a16z crypto to date represent 95% of their historical investments. They believe that in venture capital, selling high-quality assets too early is the worst decision. Dixon views blockchain as the next infrastructure of the internet, believing the crypto industry is in a long "foundational period," similar to how the neural network papers released in 1943 laid the groundwork for today's AI, with true mainstream adoption requiring decades of preparation.
"We are thinking in terms of centuries as our time dimension," a16z partner Katherine Boyle said.
From this perspective, the current market downturn actually serves as the best timing for layout. Valuations are more reasonable, high-quality projects are easier to access, and there is relatively less competition. More importantly, a16z may have seen the next track about to explode.
Fortune magazine's report mentioned some key points, such as a16z not wanting the fundraising period to be too long and only investing in blockchain-related projects.
We can roughly speculate on the information behind this: a16z has seen some new trends and wants to lay out quickly, but a few hundred million is not enough; they need at least $2 billion.
Many people speculate they will invest in stablecoins, RWA tokenization, payments, Crypto+AI, and other well-known hot tracks. But I want to say they must have seen something different, but unfortunately, we currently do not know what it is.
Although not explicitly stated, Chris Dixon hinted at some clues in a tweet on February 7:
We anticipate that financial applications will lead the way, so we invested in Coinbase, MakerDAO, Compound, Uniswap, and Morpho; however, non-financial applications will catch up eventually;
It is no coincidence that financial applications became the first; rather, it is a fundamental order issue. New applications will only emerge when a sufficient number of people enter the space;
The long absence of regulation and legislation in the crypto field has led the industry astray; once regulation is established, good money will drive out bad money;
It is precisely those chaotic years that will create the eventual brilliance, both for the internet and AI.
Perhaps a16z sees a new series of promising tracks, or perhaps this $2 billion won't go into new tracks at all; it might continue investing in projects we think are dead, or it could be like the early days of a16z collecting chips in the secondary market.
a16z is still there, continuing to do many things others cannot understand. But for you in front of the screen, will you choose to believe this time?
Believe in the Power of Belief
Is a16z the evangelist of Web3, or a savvy harvester?
This question may not have a standard answer.
From one perspective, a16z has indeed gained substantial returns from the rise of the crypto industry. One investment in Coinbase alone brought them over $7 billion in returns. But from another angle, without institutions like a16z betting early on, and without them supporting seemingly crazy entrepreneurs with real money, would the Web3 industry have developed to its current scale?
Their post-investment services have helped countless startups through their most challenging moments. Their policy lobbying has fought for a more favorable regulatory environment for the industry. Their content output has educated generations of entrepreneurs and developers.
In this atypical cycle, we have seen market resistance to VCs. a16z even once used a vast amount of UNI reserves, hoping to make LayerZero the cross-chain interoperability choice for Uniswap, but the market seemed to prop up Wormhole simply to counteract VCs.
At the end of 2021, Musk joked on X, "Has anyone seen Web3? I can't find it." Jack Dorsey sardonic replied, "It might be somewhere between A and Z."
Looking back today, these two quips hit the nail on the head. The concept of Web4.0 has already been raised, and Web3 hasn't clarified itself. Many partners of large crypto VCs have chosen to leave, many founders of crypto projects have opted to exit, and many investors have started to focus on stocks and commodities markets.
a16z has chosen to believe in Web3.
I actually have had moments of doubt over the past couple of years, but every time those tough moments arise, I recall much success advice from business leaders: pay attention to what the smartest people in the world are doing and just follow them.
Right now, the smartest group of people in the world is certainly working on AI, but a part of them continues to steadfastly believe in crypto. Like you, I do not see particularly obvious potential and hope; it seems we do not have the capability to see the future. All we can do is closely monitor the projects that the $2 billion new fund begins to deploy.
After all, over the past 15 years, this "hunter" has proven one thing: while others are still debating the existence of elephants, they have already pulled the trigger.
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