The last day of the weekend is still consistent with expectations, as the continuation of the war has caused the price of $BTC to remain volatile. The geopolitical conflict between Iran and the United States does not seem likely to end in the short term, and Iran's resilience has exceeded the imagination of many partners. Meanwhile, Trump continues to jump back and forth on the line of "making moves," and today he stated that Iran's next supreme leader must obtain approval from the United States, which further fueled Iran's resistance.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has significantly reduced oil transportation, with oil output from southern Iraq dropping from about 4.3 million barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day. Although the United States has consistently indicated that the rise in oil prices is temporary, as long as the war does not end or the United States does not sell reserve oil, it is estimated that oil prices will be difficult to decrease, and the rise in oil prices leads to an increase in U.S. inflation.

On Monday, we will see the reaction of Asian investors when the CME opens, and by the time U.S. stock markets open in the evening, we will see the reaction of U.S. investors. I wonder if after the market opens on Monday, the price of U.S. oil will surge to $100. If that happens, it won't be good for the overall risk market.

Looking at Bitcoin's data, liquidity on Sundays is generally the lowest of the week, and today is no exception. The most comforting thing is that Trump didn't create any trouble this weekend. Although the war continues, its impact on the risk market is not significant, or rather, the impact should be observed through oil prices on Monday.

A low turnover rate does not naturally affect the structure of the chips. Today, the most discussed topic among friends should be the issue of the credit crisis. From the current situation, although the bad debts in credit are increasing, and institutional short selling of credit ETFs has reached historical highs, overall, we have not yet entered a situation of credit collapse, and there have been no issues with repayments from firms like BlackRock and Blackstone.

This is roughly how the first half of the year has been; even with three months remaining, we are still looking at the second half with caution.

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