Bitcoin and Ethereum surged and then fell back into consolidation yesterday. Bitcoin stabilized and rebounded near 66,000, returning to around 68,000 in the morning, and now has risen again in the afternoon, nearing 70,000. Ethereum dipped after 1,930 and rebounded, and now has again risen above 2,000 in the afternoon. The market is experiencing significant emotional fluctuations due to the US-Iran conflict, and the technical aspect maintains a range-bound oscillation pattern, continuing the oscillating trend throughout the day, with attention focused on the direction from the evening ADP data.
1. Macro: Geopolitical Conflict Dominates Emotion, ADP Data Becomes Key Variable
Recently, the US-Iran conflict has been continuously disturbing global financial markets, with safe-haven and risk preferences alternating, leading to high volatility in the crypto market. The geopolitical conflict has not brought stable safe-haven buying, but rather intensified the short-term speculative capital flows, causing rapid price swings.
The current market focus has shifted to the evening US ADP employment data, which serves as a precursor to non-farm data. The strength or weakness of the data will directly affect the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. Positive data may strengthen the expectation that high rates will be maintained for a longer duration, placing pressure on the crypto market; while weaker data may boost liquidity expectations, providing momentum for a rebound. Under the dual influence of geopolitics and data, the market remains overall cautious and watchful.
2. Technical Aspect: Bollinger Bands Flatten, Clear Range-Bound Oscillation Pattern
Technically, both Bitcoin and Ethereum exhibit typical characteristics of range-bound oscillation.
The Bollinger Bands on the four-hour and daily levels are generally flat, with prices oscillating between the upper and lower bands, showing no clear unidirectional trend. Recently, the market has shown poor continuity, with easy pullbacks after highs and support during declines, belonging to a consolidation structure driven by news.
Key Levels for Bitcoin
Upper Resistance: 70,000, 71,000
Lower Support: 67,000, 65,500, 63,000 area
Key Levels for Ethereum
Upper Resistance: 2,000 level, 2,050, 2,100 area
Lower Support: 1,930, 1,900, 1,850 area
Prices are repeatedly testing between support and resistance, with no significant increase in volume, indicating that bulls and bears are temporarily in a balanced state.
3. Outlook and Trading Strategy
In the short term, the market will continue to primarily oscillate within a range. After geopolitical emotions gradually digest, the evening ADP data may become the key to breaking the current balance.
In terms of operation, it is recommended to maintain a range-bound strategy, avoiding chasing highs or cutting losses, using key support and resistance as the basis for entry and stop-loss. Before the data is released, the market will likely engage in narrow-range consolidation, with relatively limited fluctuations; after the data is released, caution is needed for potential rapid moves caused by significant breaks.
Overall, before the data is settled, the market is mainly adopting a high-sell low-buy approach with light positions, waiting for clear signals to follow the trend more cautiously.
This article is exclusively provided by Jian Crypto (real-time attention to public account: Jian Crypto), representing personal opinions only. Due to the timing of the article's publication, the above opinions or suggestions may not be timely, for reference only; for more real-time guidance, please contact me!
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