Hello everyone, today let's talk about the market situation of Bitcoin and Ethereum. In the past two days, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have been in a weak correction state. The rebound on Wednesday that was hard to achieve has now all been retraced, and we have returned to the fluctuation range of February. In the short term, the weak pattern will likely continue. With the non-farm data being disappointing and the decline in U.S. stocks impacting the market, the market sentiment is relatively low, and it is highly likely that in the short term, the market will mainly perform weak fluctuations while slowly recovering.

First, let's talk about yesterday's trend. The rhythm of Bitcoin and Ethereum was basically consistent, both fluctuating downwards. During the day yesterday, Bitcoin was weakly fluctuating between 71,500 and 70,000 USD, with both bulls and bears lacking momentum and significant moves; by the evening, after the February non-farm data was released in the U.S., the market underwent a major change. This data disappointed significantly, with the non-farm employment number having not increased but rather decreased by 92,000 people (where the expectation was an increase of 59,000). As a result, Bitcoin quickly fell below the key level of 70,000 USD, and then fell along with U.S. stocks, with the decline further widening. Yesterday, the three major U.S. stock indices opened lower, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all dropping over 1%, which also dragged the crypto market down. Early this morning, Bitcoin fell to around 67,700 USD, completely retracing the gains from Wednesday's rebound, and then had a slight rebound, but this morning, it only rose to around 68,500 before dropping again, now fluctuating slightly around 68,000 USD without much significant movement.

Ethereum's trend was almost in sync with Bitcoin. During the day yesterday, it was range-bound between 2,050 and 2,100 USD, with no clear direction and both bulls and bears being relatively cautious; by the evening, it fell with Bitcoin and after breaking below the psychologically significant 2,000 USD level that many were watching, it continued to weaken, dropping to around 1,950 USD early this morning before stopping, and has been fluctuating slightly between 1,950 and 2,000 USD without breaking through the key resistance level. This decline also led to a large-scale liquidation in the global crypto market, with the total liquidation amount within 24 hours reaching 366 million USD, indicating that the selling pressure in the market is indeed significant.

Now let’s discuss the news context. The disappointing non-farm data has increased expectations regarding the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in June (rising from around 35% to about 50%), yet the probability of maintaining the current interest rate in March remains as high as 95%. Such expectations for easy monetary policy have not truly stimulated a recovery in the crypto market. Moreover, the "death spiral" caused by high-leverage liquidations has further intensified the downward pressure on prices, causing Bitcoin and Ethereum to not serve as traditional safe-haven assets, but instead demonstrate typical characteristics of risk assets de-leveraging.

From a technical perspective, looking at the daily chart, both Bitcoin and Ethereum's prices have returned to the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. The Bollinger Bands on the four-hour chart have flattened out, and the bearish volume of the MACD indicator has also begun to contract, indicating that the downward momentum in the short term has weakened, and there may be a need for a rebound and repair afterwards. The short-term support and resistance levels are relatively clear: Bitcoin's short-term support can be observed at the lower band of the four-hour chart, around 67,000 USD, while the resistance level is the middle band at the 70,000 USD mark; Ethereum’s short-term support lies between 1,930 and 1,900 USD at the lower band of the four-hour chart, with resistance at the 2,000 USD level and around 2,050 USD at the middle band.

It is currently the weekend, and typically, trading in the market is relatively light at this time, with fluctuations not being too large. Everyone should mainly focus on the rebound and repair situation of the market. In the short term, the two major cryptocurrencies have returned to the fluctuation range, and the weak pattern will likely continue. I suggest everyone pay attention to key support levels; if these support levels cannot hold, further declines may occur; at the same time, also monitor the strength of the rebound. After all, after such a large drop, there will be some degree of rebound. Be sure to act cautiously and manage risk well.

This article is exclusively contributed by Jayne Crypto (you can follow in real-time on WeChat official account: Jayne Crypto), representing personal views only. Due to the timing of the article push, the above opinions or suggestions may not be real-time, for reference only; for more real-time guidance, please contact me!

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