┈┈➤3~4 Stages of a Bear Market
╰┈✦Stage ① of the Bear Market: Reaction Stage (Faith Still Remains)
⬩Approximately December 16, 2017 ~ October 08, 2018
⬩Approximately November 07, 2021 ~ May 12, 2022
⬩Suspected October 06, 2025 ~ January 06, 2026
During this stage, BTC is declining, but the market value of USDT is increasing.
Funds flowing out of crypto are still accumulating in some USDT, and some people should still have fantasies about the market; this is the reaction stage of the bear market, a stage where faith still remains.
It is suspected that the period from October 06, 2025 to January 06, 2026 has completed this stage.
╰┈✦Stage ② of the Bear Market: Confirmation Stage (Faith Collapses)
⬩Approximately October 08, 2018 ~ November 14, 2018
⬩Approximately May 12, 2022 ~ August 04, 2022
⬩Suspected January 06, 2026 ~ ？
During this stage, BTC may be declining or in sideways movement, but the market value of USDT is decreasing.
Funds flowing out of crypto are flowing out of USDT, the market confirms the bear market, and funds begin predominantly exiting the market; this is also the stage where faith collapses.
In 2018, there were no major bearish events, so BTC primarily experienced volatility, while in 2022, with Luna + Three Arrows, BTC primarily declined.
It is suspected that January 06, 2026 marks the beginning of this stage, as the market value of USDT starts to decrease, and various doubts about BTC begin, questioning BTC's digital gold attributes, thinking BTC will fall to the 3xxx level...
However, there are currently no signs indicating that Stage ② has ended.
╰┈✦Stage ③ of the Bear Market: Accumulation Stage (Faith Settles)
⬩Approximately November 14, 2018 ~ December 15, 2018
⬩Approximately August 04, 2022 ~ November 09, 2022
During this stage, BTC may be declining or in sideways movement, but the market value of USDT is increasing.
In 2018, due to the previous stage being volatile, this stage is characterized by decline. And in 2022, since the previous stage was primarily a decline, this stage first declines and then is mainly characterized by volatility.
Either the funds selling BTC are no longer predominantly exiting, or funds are entering the market, increasing the market value of USDT. Those with the weakest faith have exited, while those with firm faith begin to hold USDT or deposit funds, accumulating strength as faith in the market also settles into this stage.
╰┈✦Stage ④ of the Bear Market: Final Panic (Black Swan)
⬩Approximately November 09, 2022 ~ November 22, 2022
During this stage, BTC is declining, and the market value of USDT is also decreasing.
This is the final panic stage, primarily influenced by black swan events. In 2018, this stage did not occur.
╰┈✦Recovery
After BTC reaches its bottom, it may gradually move upward or may oscillate at the bottom. However, the market value of USDT is increasing, marking a stage of market recovery and faith rebuilding.
┈┈➤When to Bottom Fish
The earliest opportunity should be in Stage ③, which is the stage of rising market value of USDT, using part of the position to gradually bottom fish.
As for the optimal bottom fishing range, which is the stage when BTC crashes and the market value of USDT declines, it may not necessarily occur; there was no such stage in 2018.
For retail investors, a more ideal bottom fishing range might be on the right side, that is, the recovery stage, where the market value of USDT continues to grow, and BTC has experienced a bottom and shows stability or even upward signals.
┈┈➤Final Thoughts
By comparison, it can be seen that each cycle's Stage ① is becoming shorter, as the market reacts to bear markets more quickly.
However, Stage ② has not become shorter. Stage ② may be related to the impact of bearish events; in the first half of 2018, there were no bearish events, and even EOS and TRON went live on their mainnets. Meanwhile, the collapse of Luna and the bankruptcy of Three Arrows in 2022 made this round of Stage ② longer, with a larger decline.
Currently, we are likely already in Stage ②, as the market value of USDT is decreasing, and the current bearish event is the Iran conflict, which remains uncertain as to when it will end.
Regarding price, I believe the impact of the conflict on liquidity is relatively weak, but there is a demand for correction in the US stock market, so we are likely in a position between Stage ② of 2018 and 2022, possibly experiencing downward oscillation. Of course, the certainty of this prediction is not strong, as the uncertainties involving Trump and Iran are significant.
In terms of cycles, my speculation is that, around Trump's visit to China, geopolitical bearish sentiment may end. Because Trump's visit means he has sufficient negotiation leverage regarding countries like Iran.
However, during the process of communication and coordination between the parties, whether a black swan event will occur remains uncertain. Not to mention there are still key events such as Walsh's inauguration and Japan's interest rate hikes.
Therefore, when Stage ② will end still requires monitoring. The first wave of bottom fishing opportunities requires patience, waiting for the market value of USDT to recover after a decline. Considering that the current use of USDT is not limited to crypto trading, the changes in the market value of USDT in this round may not be very obvious. Hence, other factors such as geopolitical issues and monetary policy also need to be taken into account.
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