The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for profit! Hello everyone, I am your friend Old Cui, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to deliver the most valuable cryptocurrency market information to a wide range of currency friends. I welcome everyone's attention and likes, and reject any market smokescreens!   

The feedback from the previous articles has been quite good, receiving many inquiries from friends; although most users hold different views from Old Cui, they also find it very interesting. Currently, in the market, it is generally believed that a decline is the norm, and many friends feel that a new low is approaching, and that this year's new high may not reach the 120,000 mark again, even adjusting the prediction of the new high of 150,000 to 100,000, similar to the forecast by Standard Chartered Bank. As for Ethereum and other currencies, the predicted rebounds will not exceed one time. This makes Old Cui feel that everyone's predictions are generally following the K-line, and during the conversations, Old Cui's comments are mostly teasing; since you choose to be bearish, why not short? This is Old Cui's counterattack, and when mentioning shorting, everyone stops here, which is also something that confuses Old Cui. Many friends' reasons for bearish counterattacks are undoubtedly two: first, military geopolitical conflicts; second, data issues within the circle, believing that the downturn will inevitably wash out the bulls, and that the most thorough liquidation price for the bulls is around the 45,000-50,000 mark.

Currently, Bitcoin's quoted price is at 68,470, Ethereum is at 1,983, and the article is written at 04:37 on March 4, 2026. For Old Cui, the early morning is an extremely clear time point, and these two issues have been something he has been considering since the end of last year. With the recent concentrated outbreak of military conflicts, it has instead become a strong catalyst for Old Cui's awakening; based on military analysis, the impact needs to be analyzed broadly, where each round of military actions has been the primary factor affecting the cryptocurrency circle. That is, the first round of impacts has the greatest effect on Bitcoin, and the start of the first round of strikes has not led to a decline in the cryptocurrency market that meets Old Cui's expectations; in the articles from two days ago, Old Cui mentioned this point: normally, it should be expected to decline by around 30%, but this time the decline is insufficient. This level of decline indicates a problem, which is that the number of sellers has actually decreased; they do not dare to sell, and even if the market makers want to crash it, they need to first consider whether they can buy it back?

Everyone dares to predict this new low of 45,000, but why is there no one predicting below 30,000? The reason is simple: it is BlackRock and the American funds, and even recently you can see South Korea adding to MicroStrategy's efforts again. Unless the giants believe that after this wave of selling there will be no future for the cryptocurrency market, Old Cui has always emphasized focusing only on the occurrence of events while ignoring his own slogan. This series of bearish giants are now all buying in; then why are they still crashing the market? The military conflicts are beyond everyone’s expectations. Trump thought that resolving Iran would be as simple as Venezuela, believing that eliminating the supreme leader would stop the war. However, he did not foresee the sacrifices of the second, third, and fourth nominees, which have further solidified Iran's resolve to oppose the US. Many people talk about Trump's successes, but Old Cui only sees more and more missiles from Iran aimed at America's allies, and most friends only see Trump's data, ignoring Iran's counterattack.

We need to focus on the results. If the US does not successfully take down Iran, it is a strategic failure for them, that is, a defeat. What impact will this failure create? Just look at Japan's inflation; this is the path that the US will take. Without the plunder of Iranian oil, coupled with its own expenditures and even counting domestic tariff judgments, the performance of the US stock market has begun to decline, and the growth of national debt yields, along with the weakening of the dollar, are all blows to the US economy. The most perplexing aspect for Trump now is whether he can succeed if he continues to strike? Even if ground forces intervene, that would be an even greater failure. At this stage, we can only hope for a quick surrender from Iran, which clearly seems unrealistic. Old Cui can see and believes that Iran's leadership will not be so foolish. Iran's military depth is too great, and it won't be easily resolved; what road is left for Trump? Lower interest rates? Expand the balance sheet? Will this series of measures still come?

With the gradual clarity of the military outcomes, we can anticipate future economic measures from the US. Only by maintaining lower interest rates can there be a way out; only by continuing balance sheet expansion can domestic operations be sustained. Old Cui also believes that given Trump another opportunity, he might not choose this war. This is the confidence that military developments have brought Old Cui. Through the fluctuations of the past two days, Old Cui can also see that these whales seem to have begun to notice this, and the number of buyers is increasing. The second biggest issue is the continued sluggish data of activity in the cryptocurrency circle that everyone emphasizes; the alignment between the holdings data and liquidation data of the giants, in Old Cui's view, is essentially about the positioning of Bitcoin. Everyone only regards Bitcoin as an investment product. Old Cui thinks that a decline to 10,000 is a normal phenomenon, and even a complete ending is also normal. But if we want to elevate its status again? Will the US give it up?

The effort Trump has invested in Bitcoin is no less than that of any practitioner. From the Chen Zhi case, we can see that Trump's idea is merely to gather all the funds from black and gray industries into the US market. The current conclusion for him, and even for the benefits of the US, is a significant weakening. If we only consider the data from the cryptocurrency market and ignore its future, that is extremely unfair. Since the very beginning of the decline in the cryptocurrency market, Old Cui has defined it as allowing American capital to intervene to achieve the goal of changing the market makers. Looking at MicroStrategy, since Trump's election in November 2024, the holding of 280,000 Bitcoins has skyrocketed to the current 720,000 coins; BlackRock's data from January 2025 shows 375,000 coins, and recent data shows nearly 800,000 coins; they have not sold, and instead have been buying in lightly during the downturn. The Abu Dhabi Fund has directly purchased 1 billion US Dollars of Bitcoin through BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF; this data is almost all positive, and their holding costs are also maintained above 70,000.

Their actions compel Old Cui to broaden his perspective: what exactly are they doing? Especially MicroStrategy; everyone predicted that at 65,000 coins, they would sell, thus resolving the stock market crisis; yet in the recently exposed data, on March 2, they actually bought 3,000 Bitcoins. So now everyone has to think about a question: in the absence of selling, have the American capitalists completed the handover of market makers? Old Cui feels that this data has already provided the answer: the assets of the US in the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin, have almost accounted for over 50% of the holdings, providing sufficient pricing power for the cryptocurrency market. Now, do they need to raise the unit price even higher? And can Bitcoin maintain this price? (Regarding its value definition) When everyone is having bearish thoughts, could this be their perfect opportunity to pull the market up? After reading these data, Old Cui feels that the next round of the bull market has an unlimited ceiling feeling.

Old Cui summarizes: In a comparative perspective, at the current price level, anyone buying in will be much lower than MicroStrategy's holding cost of around 76,000; this also raises a big question for Old Cui about how long the current price can last, which is why Old Cui holds an optimistic view on Bitcoin’s price in March. Of course, resolving these two points does not mean that we can directly shatter the concept of no new low; what Old Cui wants to say is that if everyone wants a new low, there must be a piece of bearish news larger than the conflict between Iran and the US to emerge. Who exactly benefits from further smashing down? Is it to allow everyone to enter the market? Everyone needs to remember one thing: only when the market is rising will retail investors participate in buying. The current retail investors dare not invest too much; they have better choices. The giants wanting to change hands is merely to awaken those old monsters—the selling off of original wallets, which Old Cui believes is already enough. Everyone's definition of the cryptocurrency market needs a more inclusive perspective; the current market value has not yet reached the expected level for netting in.

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Old Cui's Message: Investing is like playing chess; skilled players can see five steps, seven steps, or even a dozen steps ahead, while amateurs can only see two or three steps. The skilled consider the big picture and the overall trend, not overly focusing on a single piece or a single move; they aim to win the game in the end, while amateurs may fight for every inch, frequently switching between bullish and bearish, only competing for short-term gains, resulting in being frequently trapped.

This material is for learning and reference only, and does not constitute buying or selling advice; trading based on this, the consequences are at your own risk!

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