A popular trader with more than 30 years of experience in financial markets and author of the 60-day cycle theory for BTC, Bob Loukas, released on Monday another outlook of Bitcoin’s price. Unlike the optimistic charts, analyses and predictions that flooded the crypto space after the weekend, his outlook can hardly be called bullish.
As Loukas writes in the caption to his outlook, despite deep oversold conditions, Bitcoin on the weekly chart "remains horrendous" and from a purely visual perspective, according to the trader, it feels as if it is "hanging by a thread" and preparing another large leg down. He also marked his price target for the leading cryptocurrency at around $49,000 per BTC.
Business cycle and halving have no effect on Bitcoin price, argues Loukas
Those who tried to argue in the replies, pointing to the business cycle indicator, were told by Loukas that the business cycle indicator is the "biggest cope" in crypto, in his opinion. In addition, he sees no signs of a front-run of the halving, and in the trader's view, the halving has nothing to do with what is happening on the Bitcoin price chart right now.
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As deeply oversold as Bitcoin is, this weekly chart remains horrendous and from a purely visual perspective, feels like it's hanging on by a thread and readying for another big leg lower. pic.twitter.com/dvNwAeoyZ8
— Bob Loukas 🗽 (@BobLoukas) March 2, 2026As Loukas believes, money moved in early because of the ETF and the pro-crypto government, as well as regulatory changes, but "beneath all of it, it has always been a bear cycle."
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At the moment, BTC is still about 25% away from Loukas's target. If his calculations are correct, this would mean that from the peak set in October 2025, Bitcoin could potentially lose a little more than 60%.
Nevertheless, in contrast to his bearish view on Bitcoin right now, Loukas also stated in a separate post today that he is "still long core positions in stocks" for now. Here he relies on the Bollinger Bands, which are tightening hard, and the longer this continues, the more it implies a breakdown possibility. However, for now, the trader remains bullish on stocks and bearish on BTC.
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