Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.27 trillion, with BTC accounting for 57.9%, which is $1.31 trillion. The market value of stablecoins is $30.94 billion, increasing by 0.5% in the last 7 days, with USDT making up 59.31%.
CoinMarketCap shows that of the top 200 projects, most are down while a few are up, including: BTC with a 7-day decline of 3.11%, ETH with a 7-day decline of 1.87%, SOL with a 7-day decline of 3.23%, DCR with a 7-day increase of 36.34%, and PIPPIN with a 7-day increase of 34.03%.
This week, the net inflow of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF is $787.5 million; the net inflow of the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF is $80.3 million.
Market Forecast (March 2 - March 8) :
BTC: $66,000-70,000 (if it falls below this, it may slide further to $60,000)
ETH: $1,880-2,050 (under extreme conditions could test $1,776)
SOL: $80-91 (if it falls below 80, the situation will deteriorate rapidly)
The current RSI index is 45.39 (neutral range), the fear and greed index is 10 (extreme fear), and the altseason index is 43 (neutral, consistent with last week).
The core narrative in the market recently will revolve around the macro game of "dual killing" between bulls and bears. On one hand, the removal of last week's "mysterious selling pressure" and strong inflows into ETFs have injected rebound momentum into the market; on the other hand, the upcoming regulatory meetings and stubborn inflation data cast a shadow of the "bull market trap" over the market. Overall, next week the market will be influenced by macro events, requiring particularly cautious operations. Until regulatory dust settles, any large bets in either direction may face risks.
Stay Informed
Review of Major Events This Week
The U.S. and Israel launch operations against Iran, Bitcoin's "safe-haven properties" again questioned
This Saturday (February 28), U.S. President Trump announced a "large-scale and sustained" military operation against Iran, dramatically escalating geopolitical risks. As a globally highly liquid asset traded 24/7, Bitcoin quickly responded to the conflict, with prices falling below $64,000, resulting in over 150,000 liquidations within 24 hours and a total liquidation amount of nearly $500 million. This decline has sparked widespread debate in the market about whether Bitcoin possesses the safe-haven properties of "digital gold," as its movement fell in tandem with traditional risk assets, while gold rose to around $5,250 due to increased safe haven demand.
Hong Kong fires the first shot in "sovereign stablecoins," U.S. dollar stablecoins face "cleanup"
This week, Hong Kong made a significant move in the stablecoin space. It was reported that Hong Kong plans to issue the first batch of a limited number of stablecoin issuer licenses in March to counter the "siphoning" of liquidity by U.S. dollar stablecoins in Asia. As groundwork, many crypto exchange stores on the streets of Hong Kong have stopped trading USDT and USDC and a "currency war" driven by legal and physical means has quietly begun. This step aims to pave the way for a standardized Hong Kong dollar stablecoin, marking a shift from being chips in a crypto casino to becoming digital tools in geopolitical financial rivalry.
Mysterious "10 AM selling pressure" lifted, Jane Street faces insider trading lawsuit
This week’s most dramatic scene was Bitcoin’s sudden surge. On Wednesday, Bitcoin soared above $70,000, while Ethereum and Solana also rose by over 10%. Market commentators connected this rebound to the insider trading lawsuit filed against market maker Jane Street Group. For several months, there had been a mysterious pattern: massive sell-offs at 10 AM (Eastern Time) every day. After news of the lawsuit emerged, this sustained "dumping" behavior came to a halt, and the market speculated that the selling pressure was related to Jane Street's algorithm, and its pause brought strong rebound momentum to the market.
Bitcoin ETF attracts $1 billion in three days, institutional “buy the dip” signal is strong
Despite the extreme price fluctuations this week, institutional funds displayed a completely different attitude. Data showed that from Tuesday to Thursday, there was a total net inflow of $1.02 billion into the spot Bitcoin ETF, ending a consecutive five-week net outflow period. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT led with a single-day net inflow of nearly $280 million. This behavior of "buying more when prices drop" was interpreted by analysts as a positive signal indicating reduced aggressive selling pressure, showing that large long-term holders remain confident in Bitcoin.
ZKsync Lite announces official shutdown, over $33 million in assets pending withdrawal
This week, the Ethereum Layer 2 network ZKsync announced that its old version ZKsync Lite (original ZKsync 1.0) will officially cease operation on May 4, at which time the network will stop block production and permanently freeze its final state. Data shows that approximately $33.9 million in assets, including a large number of stablecoins, ETH, and BTC, are still cross-chained on ZKsync Lite. The team reminds users to withdraw their assets before the deadline, as claiming them afterward, while possible, will be more complex.
Polymarket revealed insider trading scandal, insiders profited over a million
A report by on-chain detective ZachXBT sparked allegations of insider trading in the prediction market Polymarket. Data showed that within the related markets of the investigation, 8 out of the top ten profit-making addresses were identified as insider addresses, which used non-public information to accumulate profits exceeding $1.2 million. In contrast, over 50 ordinary addresses lost more than $10,000 to $100,000. This incident revealed the contradiction between transparency of decentralized financial platforms and abuse of information, raising concerns about the compliance of prediction markets.
Vitalik releases Ethereum "Strawmap" scalability blueprint
This week, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin elaborated on the Ethereum scalability roadmap on the X platform, divided into short-term and long-term parts. The short-term focus is on the "Glamsterdam" upgrade, introducing a multi-dimensional Gas mechanism to optimize costs; the long-term relies on continuous iteration of ZK-EVM and Blob data capacity, aiming to achieve data processing capabilities of about 8MB per second. This framework, dubbed "Strawmap," received support from the Ethereum Foundation and aims to shorten block times and strengthen finality in preparation for the next wave of application surges (especially AI agents).
Tether’s valuation exposed to reach $375 billion, shareholders likely to join global billionaire ranks
According to Forbes, the valuation of stablecoin issuer Tether has reached between $350 billion and $375 billion in the secondary market, with even conservative estimates at $200 billion. At this valuation, Tether's CFO Giancarlo Devasini's personal wealth is likely to exceed that of Warren Buffett, placing him among the top ten billionaires globally. This astonishing figure highlights the significant profitability of the stablecoin business currently and its core position in crypto finance.
OpenAI receives $110 billion financing, AI and crypto integration narrative heats up
AI giant OpenAI announced this week it secured new investments of $110 billion, valuing it at $730 billion, with participation from SoftBank, Nvidia, and Amazon. Meanwhile, the co-founder of Stripe stated that the combination of stablecoins and artificial intelligence will give rise to the "agent economy." Market analysis points out that AI agents, as software capable of executing tasks autonomously, require low-cost, instant settlement payment methods, making stablecoin payments based on Solana or Ethereum Layer 2 a key infrastructure. The integration narrative of AI and crypto is becoming a new market focus.
The UK advances crypto gambling payments, Hong Kong pilots real estate RWA tokenization
Regulatory and asset tokenization also saw significant progress this week. The UK Gambling Commission is assessing the feasibility of allowing consumers to use cryptocurrencies for online betting, echoing the digital asset regulatory framework promoted by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority, aiming to guide betting behavior towards legal channels. Meanwhile, Cardone Capital announced the launch of a $5 billion real estate tokenization plan, putting its multifamily residential and commercial real estate assets on-chain in the U.S. Consulting firm Deloitte predicts that by 2035, the global scale of real estate tokenization may reach $4 trillion.
Macroeconomics
On February 26, the U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending February 21 were 212,000, with expectations of 215,000, and the previous value revised from 206,000 to 208,000;
On February 28, according to CME "FedWatch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March is 6.7%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 93.3%. The probability of the Fed maintaining unchanged rates until April is 75.3%, with the probability of cumulative rate cuts of 25 basis points at 23.4% and 50 basis points at 1.3%.
ETF
Statistics show that from February 23 to February 27, the net inflow of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF was: $787.5 million; as of February 27, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of: $25.828 billion, currently holding $10.289 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $49.903 billion. The total market value of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF is: $85.825 billion.
U.S. Ethereum spot ETF net inflow: $8.03 million.
Envisioning the Future
Industry Conferences
EthCC 9 will be held from March 30 to April 2, 2026, in Cannes, France. The Ethereum Community Conference (EthCC) is one of the largest and oldest annual Ethereum events in Europe, focusing on technology and community development;
The Hong Kong Web3 Carnival 2026 will be held from April 20 to 23, 2026, in Hong Kong, China;
TOKEN2049 Dubai 2026 will be held from April 29 to 30, 2026, in Dubai, UAE.
Project Progress
Gemini will enter a withdrawal-only mode for all customer accounts in the UK, European Economic Area, and Australia starting from March 5, officially closing on April 6.
Important Events
On March 4 at 21:15, the U.S. will announce February's ADP employment numbers (10,000);
On March 5 at 21:30, the U.S. will announce initial jobless claims for the week ending February 28 (10,000);
On March 6 at 21:30, the U.S. will announce February's unemployment rate.
Token Unlocks
Jupiter (JUP) will unlock 254 million tokens on February 28, worth approximately $38.6 million, accounting for 7.94% of circulation;
Sui (SUI) will unlock 43.36 million tokens on March 1, worth approximately $38.38 million, accounting for 1.13% of circulation;
EigenCloud (EIGEN) will unlock 36.82 million tokens on March 1, worth approximately $6.82 million, accounting for 8.15% of circulation;
Ethena (ENA) will unlock 40.63 million tokens on March 2, worth approximately $4.14 million, accounting for 0.53% of circulation.
About Us
Hotcoin Research is the core research institution of the Hotcoin Exchange, dedicated to transforming professional analysis into practical tools for you. Through our "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Reports," we dissect market trends for you; leveraging exclusive segments like "Hotcoin Picks" (dual-screened by AI and experts), we identify potential assets and reduce trial and error costs. Every week, our researchers also engage with you live through live streaming, interpreting hotspots and predicting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize value opportunities in Web3.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investments carry risks. We strongly advise investors to fully understand these risks and invest within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of funds.
Website: https://lite.hotcoingex.cc/r/Hotcoinresearch
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
