Wintermute’s analysis describes a market that is steady in price but unsettled in tone, with bitcoin hovering near the range but repeatedly failing to reclaim the $70,000 level. Jasper De Maere, a trading strategist and over-the-counter (OTC) trader at Wintermute, frames the environment as one defined by light positioning and limited conviction.

According to the researcher, the post- liquidation reset two weeks ago ushered in a period of new price discovery, but without meaningful spot demand, leverage has taken the wheel. De Maere notes that this dynamic has led to sharp, erratic swings in both directions, with traders reacting quickly to macro data rather than building longer-term exposure.

The Wintermute report essentially highlights a split macro narrative: stronger-than-expected January nonfarm payrolls pushed Treasury yields higher and pressured rate-cut expectations, while a softer January CPI reading at 2.4% year over year eased inflation fears and sparked a short-lived relief rally. Still, De Maere stresses that exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows remained under pressure, limiting follow-through.

Beyond crypto, Wintermute sees a broader cross-asset rotation underway, with investors trimming artificial intelligence (AI) and growth exposure in favor of cyclicals and value plays. De Maere argues that this shift, driven partly by valuation fatigue and fiscal-year earnings results, hits crypto in a brutal fashion.

“ Crypto, at the highest-beta end of the growth spectrum, gets hit hardest when that happens,” De Maere explains.

Technically, the Wintermute strategist points out that bitcoin has found support near its 200-week moving average, historically a key long-term level. Yet resistance near $70,000 persists, and De Maere cautions that rangebound trading carries a downward bias unless macro clarity improves.

As Wintermute puts it: “Positioning is light, conviction is absent, and until macro clarity returns, every rally will be perceived as an opportunity to derisk vs momentum to chase.” De Maere maintains that while a recovery into the second half of 2026 is possible, it will require patience that many market participants have already exhausted.

• What is Wintermute’s current view on bitcoin?
  Wintermute says bitcoin is rangebound below $70,000 with light positioning and limited conviction.
• Who provided the analysis?
  The outlook comes from Wintermute, including commentary from trading strategist Jasper De Maere.
• What macro factors are influencing crypto?
  Strong U.S. jobs data, softer CPI, shifting rate expectations and cross-asset rotation are shaping price action.
• What technical level is key for bitcoin?
  Wintermute highlights the 200-week moving average as a major long-term support zone.

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