While there have been developments regarding Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP), with official videos being leaked and whistleblowers being featured in congressional hearings, prediction markets don’t expect full disclosure on the issue anytime soon.

Nonetheless, recent statements have fanned the flames of believers. Barack Obama, former U.S. president, was asked by Youtuber Bryan Tyler Cohen on the topic, and his answers surprised many.

When asked if aliens were real, Obama stated:

“They’re real, but I haven’t seen them, and they’re not being kept in, what is it … Area 51.”

Obama added that there was no underground facility, unless there’s an enormous conspiracy and they have hidden all of it from the president of the United States, an opinion shared by many conspiracy theorists.

He also revealed that the first question he wanted answered after becoming president was about where the aliens were.

Prediction markets failed to react after the confirmation of the existence of aliens by someone who was, at one point, the most powerful man in the world, rejecting possible advancements regarding a disclosure movement, at least in 2026.

A Polymarket bet that tracks the chances of an official U.S. government disclosure regarding the existence of aliens barely moved after Obama’s statements, still giving only a 11% of this happening this year.

The market specifies that it will resolve positively only “if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026.”

President Donald Trump has referred several times to UAPs. In June 2024, he was confronted by influencer Logan Paul, who asked about the possibility of a cover-up hiding alien information from him. “I guess so. You have the deep state. And you do have the deep state. Certainly, they could, but I don’t think on this subject,” Trump answered.

• What recent statements have been made by former President Obama regarding UAPs?
  Obama confirmed the existence of aliens but stated he hasn’t seen them and denied the presence of any underground facilities like Area 51.

• How did prediction markets react to Obama’s comments on extraterrestrial life?
  Despite Obama’s remarks, prediction markets showed minimal reaction, maintaining only an 11% chance of official disclosure regarding aliens happening in 2026.

• What conditions must be met for prediction markets to consider U.S. government disclosure resolved positively?
  The market will only resolve positively if a member of the U.S. government definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026.

• What did former President Trump say when questioned about UAP cover-ups?
  Trump acknowledged the existence of a “deep state,” suggesting it could potentially hide information, but he doubted any cover-up on the subject of UAPs.

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