Fidelity Director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer shared on social media platform X on Feb. 13 that bitcoin’s recent decline to around $60,000 reached a support zone he had identified months earlier, signaling the likely floor of the prior phase and the potential start of a new expansion.
“Finally, bitcoin fell to $60K last week, which is in the support zone that I suggested a few months ago when I wrote that another 4-year cycle bull market had likely ended,” he wrote. “A decline to ‘only’ $60K would be relatively shallow for a bitcoin winter, but as the commodity currency matures, its ups and downs should become less dramatic.”
Timmer added: “It’s anyone’s guess whether $60K is the low, but my guess is that it is, and that after a few months of backing and filling the next cyclical bull market will get underway.” The Fidelity director of global macro further shared:
“Based on the mathematical harmony of past cycles, which of course are not a guarantee of future cycles, my sense is that any future waves could eventually take us to new highs.”
Alongside his comments, he shared two charts. The first chart, titled “ Bitcoin & Liquidity,” overlays bitcoin’s price with global money supply growth. The graphic highlights prior cycle peaks near $64,870, $68,992, $71,733, and $126,251, and marks the $60,033 area as technical support, while also showing a recent global money supply level of roughly $118 trillion.
In the second chart labeled “ Bitcoin’s Road to Maturity,” Timmer mapped bitcoin’s historical waves from early price levels near $2 and $24 to later highs above $64,000 and a projected wave 6 zone pointing toward $290,425. The model incorporates adoption curves, wallet growth, and macro variables, presenting a long-term framework that extends toward the $1 million range over time. While the forecast is described as illustrative and not a price prediction, the visual analysis suggests that, if prior cyclical patterns and adoption trends persist, bitcoin could continue progressing along a structured maturation path following the current consolidation around $60,000.
- Why does the Fidelity director of global macro see $60,000 as a critical level for bitcoin?
He believes bitcoin’s decline to around $60,000 aligns with the end of its prior four-year bull cycle, potentially marking a cyclical bottom and limiting downside risk compared to past crypto winters. - Could bitcoin’s recent pullback signal the start of a new bull market?
Timmer suggests that after a period of consolidation around $60,000, bitcoin may enter a new cyclical uptrend consistent with historical four-year market patterns. - How does bitcoin’s maturation impact its volatility outlook?
As bitcoin evolves into a more established macro asset or “commodity currency,” Timmer expects its price swings to become less extreme, which could attract more institutional capital. - What is the long-term investment thesis behind bitcoin’s cycle analysis?
Based on recurring mathematical cycle structures and continued adoption growth, Timmer argues bitcoin could reach new all-time highs over time if historical patterns continue.
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