Coinbase’s fourth-quarter earnings fell short of Wall Street expectations on Thursday, but the price of COIN is surging Friday in the aftermath—and asset manager Bernstein says investors are overlooking the exchange’s resiliency.
Despite being exposed to a volatile crypto market, Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani maintained an “outperform” rating for Coinbase in a Friday note. They reiterated a price target of $440 per share after lowering it from $510 per share last month, and described the stock as “too ‘cheap’ to sell.”
On Friday, Coinbase shares rallied more than 18% from their previous close at a recent price of nearly $167 per share, recovering partially from their lowest point in 10 months, according to Yahoo Finance.
Friday's spike canceled out earlier losses on the week, with COIN showing a 0.5% rise over the last five trading days. Over the last six months, the price of COIN has fallen by nearly 50%.
“Unfortunately, with COIN fully exposed to crypto markets, there is nowhere to hide,” the analysts noted. “We would wait out the crypto volatility and take the pain here.”
Berinstein’s price target suggests that Coinbase’s stock could jump 163% from the current price as the crypto market recovers. That would fall just shy of shares’ all-time high of $444 in July.
Coinbase disclosed a fourth-quarter net loss of $667 billion on $1.78 billion in revenue. The loss largely stemmed from a $718 million hit to Coinbase’s crypto investment portfolio.
Coinbase derives a majority of its revenue from trading fees, and amid crypto’s Q4 plunge, transaction revenue fell 6% quarter-over-quarter to $983 million. In the year-ago period, transaction revenue surged to $1.56 billion amid President Donald Trump’s re-election.
Bernstein analysts described Coinbase’s balance sheet as “strong,” with $5.4 billion in net cash and digital assets. In its shareholder letter on Thursday, Coinbase underscored that the company was “deliberately well capitalized” to navigate crypto market downturns.
Falling transaction revenue could pressure Coinbase, but the firm said that it has diversified in recent years, with 12 products generating more than $100 million in annualized revenue.
For its 2025 fiscal year, Coinbase generated $7.2 billion in revenue, with trading fees accounting for 56% of that total. That was lower than 61% in 2024. The analysts noted that revenue from Coinbase’s subscriptions and services umbrella grew 23% year-over-year to $2.8 billion.
That segment includes revenue from Circle’s USDC stablecoin and staking. Despite growing 3% quarter-over-quarter, Bernstein analysts noted that growth was partially offset by lower effective interest rates on USDC’s reserves following interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
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