On February 13, 2026, Eastern Standard Time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the inflation data for January this year. After more than two years of high inflation, the overall price increase has, for the first time, significantly fallen back to around the "two" range in major terms. The unadjusted CPI year-on-year dropped to 2.4%, and the core CPI year-on-year also landed at 2.5%, bringing inflation closer to the Federal Reserve's target range. The cooling of inflation itself is not surprising; the real contradiction lies in how this set of "slightly below expectations, but not drastic" data will change the market's pricing for when the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates. The macro script is quietly redefining, and in this new narrative rotation, crypto assets, including Bitcoin, are being repositioned within the coordinates of "inflation," "interest rates," and "risk appetite," with roles and weights being reassessed.
Core CPI Hits Low: Inflation Cools but Does Not Trigger Emergency Shift
● Looking closely at the data structure, the January unadjusted CPI year-on-year was reported at 2.4%, slightly below the 2.5% expectation set by the market, with the adjusted CPI month-on-month at 0.2%, also lower than the expected 0.3%. This means that not only is the year-on-year growth rate retreating, but also the momentum of prices on a month-on-month basis is marginally slowing down, indicating that inflation "is a bit cooler than expected," providing foundational material for the market's imagination regarding policy easing.
● Compared to overall prices, the core CPI, which more accurately reflects mid-term inflation stickiness, also showed a significant cooling: January's core CPI year-on-year recorded 2.5% and month-on-month 0.3%, both consistent with market expectations, but this year-on-year level is the lowest since March 2021. This indicates that after excluding the volatility of energy and food, the "background noise" inflation that the Federal Reserve truly cares about has dropped from a high level to a more controllable range.
● In terms of rhythm, U.S. inflation has slid from previous highs closer to the target range of 2%, but the decline is not "cliff-like" but rather cooling at a nearly predictable rate each month. This smooth retreat reserves policy maneuvering space for the Federal Reserve - it does not require extreme rate hikes as in the early stages, nor is it insufficient to compel an immediate and rapid pivot to aggressive rate cuts.
● Therefore, the key signal released by this CPI is not "inflation collapse," but rather "sustained cooling, still resilient." This emotion suppresses the most extreme hawkish rhetoric: the case for continuing to raise rates significantly has weakened; but it also makes expectations for "immediate large-scale easing" difficult to establish. The market receives a moderately complex answer rather than a clear one-way guidance.
Interest Rate Traders React First: Short Bond Yields and Dollar Fall
● The fastest responders remain interest rate traders. After the data release, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly dropped below 3.40%, a maturity range typically regarded as a "thermometer" for future policy interest rate paths over one to two years. The decline in yields means that funds are re-betting: the future interest rate trajectory may be more moderate, and the space for a further sharp rise in the short end is compressed.
● In sync with the bond market, the dollar index fell about 20 points, indicating that expectations in the foreign exchange market regarding the U.S.'s future real interest rate advantage are also marginally cooling. When inflation approaches the target more quickly, it often implies increased space for falling real interest rates, weakening the dollar's attractiveness relative to other major currencies, prompting a reassessment of global asset allocation.
● In the logic of asset pricing, the retreat of interest rates and the dollar creates a positive spillover on global risk asset valuations through the discount rate channel - anticipating lower future risk-free rates means that the same future cash flows can be "discounted at a lower level" in today’s valuation models, thereby raising the theoretical valuation centers of equities, credit, and some alternative assets.
● However, the dominant response in this round of market reaction is clearly in the hands of interest rate traders rather than central bank officials. The Federal Reserve did not immediately signal any explicit policy shift after the data, and the market is more engaged in technical corrections to the previous hawkish pricing based on the continuity of the inflation path. In other words, this is a "fine-tuning of forward expectations," not a "complete flip in stance."
Stocks and Gold Rise Together but Do Not Celebrate: Mild Resonance of Risk Assets
● In the stock market, risk appetite was not ignited to frenzy by the single month data point. After the data release, U.S. stock futures only rose about 0.06% to 0.14%, trending stronger but far from "taking off." This limited rise reflects a kind of cautious optimism: the market acknowledges inflation is moving in the right direction but is unwilling to preemptively realize a "big market" from just one data point.
● Compared to the lukewarm stock index, gold, with more pronounced hedging and defensive attributes, reacted more directly - spot gold prices rose by over 20 dollars after the data announcement. When inflation is declining but still above target, and the future interest rate path is filled with uncertainty, using gold as a "neutral asset" to hedge against inflation and interest rate fluctuations has been reaccepted and bought by a large amount of capital.
● The simultaneous strengthening of the stock market and gold points to the market betting on a "mild inflation + potential easing" combination, rather than any extreme on either side. The stock market is pricing in the likelihood of future growth and declines in discount rates, while gold hedges against the risks at the tail end when the macro path deviates from expectations. Under this dual logic, both types of assets can benefit simultaneously.
● This also reflects the hierarchy of preferences among traditional asset investors under the current circumstances: at the stage where "inflation has clearly declined, but the macro story is not yet fully written," institutions are more willing to first increase allocations to defensive or hedging assets rather than leverage more in high-valued equities at the first instance. The optimistic sentiment in risk assets is activated but still covered by a cautious "safety net."
Bitcoin Only Rises 0.24%: Macro Narrative Has Not Changed Its Pricing Core
● Compared to traditional assets, Bitcoin's immediate response after the data release is markedly calm. Reports indicate that the price of Bitcoin only slightly increased by about 0.24% to around 67,535 dollars, contrasting sharply with the small upward movements in the stock market and significant rise in gold. For an asset known for its volatility, such an increase seems more like a "posturing response" rather than a trend declaration.
● In a horizontal dimension, stock index futures and gold offered clear directions under the same macro information stimulus, while the crypto market did not regard this round of CPI as a "complete turning point" in the narrative. The limited price increase indicates that Bitcoin at this stage is neither being wildly chased as a pure "inflation hedging tool," nor has it been re-rated on the spot due to the adjustment in interest rate expectations.
● More realistic factors lie in the current status of the crypto market: after a previous period of strong upward movement, Bitcoin's prior gain has already been substantial, and leverage and derivative positions are generally at a relatively elevated level. In this context, new macro positives are more likely to be used for "digesting chips and adjusting positions," rather than becoming fuel pushing prices to continue rising sharply; a wait-and-see approach has become a more rational collective choice.
● This also throws a question back on the table: in the current macro environment, is Bitcoin primarily viewed as "digital gold to hedge against currency devaluation," or as a "high Beta tech stock substitute highly sensitive to interest rate cycles"? The weight of different roles will determine whether the market opts for aggressive trading or regards it as a slight recalibration of the medium to long-term path in response to similar CPI events.
Saylor Urges to Buy: Clash of Narrative Machines and Official Data
● In the process of data release and market digestion, one of the extreme bulls of Bitcoin, MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor, also chose to amplify his stance on social media. According to a single source, he posted on the X platform, stating: "Invest in Bitcoin today; the currency problem will not solve itself," using the inflation issue to reinforce his long-standing asset allocation argument.
● For a long time, Saylor has continuously intensified the narrative around "fiat currency will inevitably devalue and fail, Bitcoin is the only way out." Whether inflation surges or retreats, he has incorporated it into the same discourse framework. Even in the official inflation data showing a significant retreat, he still loudly emphasizes the "currency issue," objectively intensifying the tension between macro realities and extreme bullish narratives.
● On one side, the core CPI year-on-year drops to 2.5%, the "cold statistics" marking the lowest level since March 2021; on the other side, there is enthusiastic preaching of "fiat currency must fail, Bitcoin is the only solution." These two messages can coexist, forming a dual source of sentiment in the crypto market: the official data provides a gradually cooling macro backdrop, while opinion leaders attempt to dominate the emotional premium of assets by amplifying currency anxiety.
● For retail investors and some small to medium-sized institutions, such high-decibel calls often have an oversize influence at a phase where the macro environment is marginally shifting but not fully defined. It not only amplifies expectations for price volatility in the short term but can also weaken the weight of fundamental variables such as interest rates, employment, and valuation in medium to long-term thinking, placing more decision-making in the hands of "the narrative itself," which is not entirely beneficial for the health of market structure.
Inflation Retreat Is Not the End: The Crypto Market Is Still Searching for Its Position
● In summary of this January CPI data, the key signal obtained by the market is that both overall and core inflation have returned to around the "two" range, indicating that the inflation battle has moved from a high-pressure phase into "wrapping up and mid-game break." However, this level is still quite far from allowing the Federal Reserve to turn to easing "unconditionally" and "without pressure," suggesting more about solidifying the conclusion of the rate hike cycle rather than announcing the start of the rate-cutting cycle.
● Under the same macro shock, interest rates, the dollar, stock markets, gold, and Bitcoin exhibit significantly differentiated responses: short-term U.S. Treasury yields broke below 3.40%, and the dollar index fell about 20 points, reflecting a downward pricing focus on interest rates and exchange rates; stock index futures rose slightly, and gold increased by over 20 dollars, indicating capital is re-sorting between risk and hedging assets. In contrast, Bitcoin's mere 0.24% gain shows it is still "searching for its position" in this narrative.
● Moving forward, what will truly determine the trajectory of the macro script will not be a single month's CPI, but rather a combination of subsequent inflation and employment data over several periods, along with the Federal Reserve's wording and dot plot signals in the upcoming meetings. Only when the market can more clearly lock in when interest rate cuts will begin, how much, and at what pace, will the pricing differences between assets converge into a more directional trend.
For crypto investors, a more realistic strategic insight is: when the macro story has yet to fully take shape, focus on position and cycle management rather than betting on a single data point. Configuring spot and derivatives using a layered approach, allowing for flexibility to respond to fluctuations and narrative reversals, is more critical than simply going "all in or all out" based on a single CPI. The macro environment will continue to adjust, but surviving and maintaining maneuverability is essential for participating in the next real trend driven by a shift in interest rates.
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