Cryptocurrency Market News
February 13 Highlights;
1. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins: Predicts market involves overlapping jurisdiction, regulatory path still to be clarified
2. CFTC announces IAC list, several cryptocurrency industry CEOs included
3. Coinbase reports a loss of $667 million in Q4, revenue down 20% year-on-year
4. Aave Labs submits governance proposal to allocate 100% of Aave brand product revenue to DAO treasury
5. Corpay strategist Karl Schamota states: Strong non-farm data fails to halt the decline of the dollar, bearish sentiment is “deeply rooted”
Trading Insights
Short Trading Insights: 1. Trade what you can understand 2. Reflect on why a trade went wrong 3. Often, you will understand the market after the next candlestick 4. You can also pretend to place an order and then feel thankful you didn't 5. Trade trends in a trending market, trade range in a range-bound market; sometimes losing money is due to using a range strategy in a trending market 6. Only go long when a breakout and support appear 7. Finding advantageous positions on M5 Bollinger Bands leads to higher winning rates 8. Small stop losses are better than liquidation
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BTC
Analysis
Based on the data for Bitcoin, the turnover rate continues to rise, and investor sentiment continues to be tested. However, from the data of BTC moving to exchanges, the new sell-off is not substantial, but the inventory on exchanges is increasing, indicating a decline in purchasing power. The sentiment and capital flow are in disarray, indicating characteristics of a bear market.
However, URPD data indicates that the chip structure is still quite healthy, with little change among early investors and those who are at a loss from highs. Most investors' sentiment remains stable, but the lack of purchasing power and liquidity gap means even a small sell-off cannot be absorbed by the market. Attention should be paid to the evening CPI.
Buying on a dip around 62260 is advisable, with a rebound target towards 63500-64900. If it rebounds to 67350-68230, consider shorting, with a target towards 64400-62300.
ETH
Analysis
The market's sharp decline today seems to be due to expectations that Friday's CPI data will be very poor, exceeding both previous values and expectations. Even JPMorgan has released predictions, expecting the monthly inflation rate to rise by 0.4%. Given the positive economic impact of the non-farm data, inflation is the data everyone is most concerned about, and a 0.4% rise in the monthly rate likely means a broader CPI increase. Thus, today's drop may be a risk aversion behavior by investors.
This indicates that if next Friday's CPI data is indeed bad, declines could continue. Moreover, after Friday, it’s China's Spring Festival (the stock markets in China, South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, and Hong Kong will be closed), as well as a three-day holiday in the U.S. The market's liquidity will certainly drop significantly, and if something unexpected happens, it could be dire.
However, I believe short-term data is not enough to dictate the Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy. Trump does not need another Powell; the person chosen after such a long time, Waller, may surprise us or scare Trump. We will have to wait until June to know; before then, the situation may be difficult, especially with Trump’s tariffs in play.
Buying on a dip around 1818-1808 is advisable, with a rebound target around 1885. If it rebounds to 1972-1998, consider shorting, targeting 1905-1825.
Disclaimer: The above content is purely personal opinion and for reference only! It does not constitute specific operational advice and does not bear legal responsibility. Market conditions change rapidly, and the article may have some latency; if there’s anything unclear, feel free to inquire.
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