Written by: Ma He, Foresight News
A miracle has occurred again on Polymarket.
With extensive surveillance, crazy betting, and over a year, a certain address earned a net profit of $100,000 purely from small profits, compounded.
The address we are reviewing, planktonXD (0x4ffe49ba2a4cae123536a8af4fda48faeb609f71), is an extremely typical high-frequency quantitative player. Since joining in February 2025, in just one year, it has generated a net profit of $106,000 through over 61,000 predictions.
In the prediction market, most people gamble on "black swans" or chase major news, but planktonXD has taken a completely different path: extreme certainty and terrifying execution frequency.
Looking at planktonXD's historical trading data, the most shocking aspect is its 61,000 predictions. From February 2025 to February 2026, it executed around 170 trades per day on average.
This frequency far exceeds the limits of human manual operation, making it certain that the player is using automated trading scripts (Bots). It is not "predicting" outcomes but is "harvesting" price differences.
An interesting phenomenon is that planktonXD's "biggest single profit" (Biggest Win) is only $2,527.4. Compared to its total profit of $100,000, this single maximum profit seems very "small" (only about 2% of the total profit).
Some retail players always hope to win big, and in their self-assured judgments, they bet all their chips.
Winning is certainly good, but losing makes it tough to return to the table.
If we take a step back, even if each ALL IN could win, just one loss could result in a big loss.
Reviewing its trading history, it never goes ALL IN on a single extreme event, nor does it bet on high odds. Its profit curve shows a perfect 45-degree angle of smooth growth, with almost no major drawdowns. This indicates that it has adopted a market-making strategy: placing orders on both sides of the order book to earn the buy-sell spread, or utilizing price fluctuations between different markets for micro-arbitrage.
It does not always hold positions long-term (Buy and Hold), but frequently enters and exits the market. This "light position, fast turnover" strategy greatly reduces single-point risk. Even if an unexpected event occurs in a prediction market (like a sudden change in election results), its total capital pool is minimally affected.
This quantitative bot does not focus solely on specific vertical markets, like weather, but places bets across various tracks, including sports, weather, cryptocurrency prices, and politics. It continuously monitors thousands of prediction markets across the platform 24/7, looking for moments of pricing inefficiency.
VALORANT Challengers is a classic practical case for this trader.
You can think of it as a "minor league" or "regional league" in the esports world. Fuego and LYON are professional teams from the Latin American region. Due to the small audience and high information asymmetry, this type of match becomes a "paradise for arbitrage" for quantitative bots.
It bought 3,664.9 shares of Fuego winning at a price of $0.1, and ultimately this trade returned $874.09, with a terrifying return rate of 23,750%!
This is a typical "small position with high odds" strategy. In markets with extremely poor liquidity or where the masses are extremely bearish on a particular option (like the results of esports matches), it utilizes Bots to monitor those options erroneously priced to nearly "zero." It does not need to predict who will win; it only needs to know that Fuego's chances of winning are absolutely more than 0.1%. Essentially, it is harvesting the "extreme emotions" and "lack of liquidity" in the market.
Speaking of emotions, cryptocurrency prices reflect this most vividly.
Will the price of SOL drop to $130 between January 12-18?
It invested about $16 at a price of $0.7 (the market believed the probability of winning was less than 1%), and ultimately took away $1,574, with a return of an astonishing 9,285%.
Why was it able to make such big money with this "almost impossible" prediction at the time?
During the severe volatility of the cryptocurrency market, mainstream predictions tend to be bullish or range-bound. planktonXD captures those options undervalued as "extremely bearish" priced at $0.1 - $0.01 around the clock. These options are regarded as worthless by the average person, but in the eyes of quantitative players, they are extremely cheap insurance. As long as the market experiences a deep spike or adverse news, these "worthless papers" can instantly surge thousands of times. Moreover, within certain price ranges (like SOL at $40), since the current price is far from the predicted price, the order book is often very thin. planktonXD utilizes automated scripts to place orders in these "no-man's lands," eating up the cheap shares dumped due to panic or erroneous operations, essentially acting as a transporter of probabilities.
planktonXD's SOL strategy indicates that in Polymarket, buying the "impossible" does not mean it believes it will happen, but because the "probability of occurrence" is underestimated by the market. It took a few dollars' worth of risk to buy a one-in-ten-thousand chance of panic, which is a classic example of "antifragile" trading.
The success of planktonXD provides ordinary retail investors with three core insights:
The power of compounding cannot be underestimated; making 0.5% per day through high-frequency trading leads to returns far more robust a year later than hitting a ten-fold cryptocurrency. Technology is the killer move; in the Crypto era, quantitative tools and API calling capabilities are standard for top players. Lastly, certainty is greater than odds. In the prediction market, finding small profit opportunities with very high probabilities (such as over 90% certainty) is easier to survive than gambling on large events with 50/50 odds.
After all, the highest-level strategy in prediction markets is not to predict the future, but to manage probabilities and liquidity.
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