Written by: CertiK

The CertiK "Skynet Prediction Market Report" has been released, analyzing the current growth drivers, technical architecture, security risks, and regulatory environment of the prediction market. The report shows that the global prediction market has officially entered the mainstream, with trading volume expected to jump from approximately $15.8 billion in 2024 to $63.5 billion in 2025, an increase of up to 4 times.

It is noteworthy that while the trading scale is rapidly expanding, the prediction market still faces significant challenges in terms of infrastructure safety, compliance consistency, and long-term sustainability.

Weekly Trading Volume of Prediction Markets by Public Chain (Source: Dune)

Market Landscape: Triangular Dominance and Structural Rotation

The prediction market has now formed a situation where Kalshi, Polymarket, and Opinion are the three main players, collectively accounting for over 95% of the global prediction market trading volume, but showing clear divergence in compliance paths, user structure, and ecological dependencies.

Top-Ranked Prediction Market Platforms According to Skynet

The above judgments come from the Skynet Top Board evaluation system under CertiK. Unlike market rankings primarily based on market capitalization or trading volume, this list focuses more on the overall risk structure and long-term stability of segmented projects, comprehensively assessing multi-dimensional signals such as code security, fundamental health, operational resilience, community trust, governance capabilities, and market stability, helping the market differentiate projects that not only perform actively in the short term but also possess long-term development resilience:

• Kalshi (Skynet Score: 92.72): Solidly defends the U.S. market under a compliance framework, leveraging the U.S. elections and NFL events, and integrates with Robinhood to reach 24 million retail investors.

• Polymarket (Skynet Score: 89.88): Despite facing geographic restrictions in the U.S., it remains the top choice for globally crypto-native users, with its probability data becoming a significant reference source in mainstream media.

• Opinion (Skynet Score: 89.02): As the fastest-growing platform, it capitalizes on BNB chain ecosystem incentives, capturing about 30% of the market share in just a few months.

It is noteworthy that liquidity is undergoing a "structural rotation": the activity on the BNB chain has significantly surpassed traditional leaders like Polygon by early 2026, absorbing the largest share of weekly capital flows.

Shadows Under Prosperity: False Trading and Infrastructure Vulnerability

However, rapid growth has also amplified security risks. While trading volumes hit new highs, our research reveals the risks the industry faces:

• Manipulative trading is rampant: During the peak of airdrop incentives, the estimated proportion of false trading volume on some platforms reached as high as 60%. Although this has not yet compromised the accuracy of prediction probabilities, it has severely distorted liquidity indicators.

• Web2.5 hybrid risks: The December 2025 hack of Polymarket's identity verification provider indicates that even if the smart contract itself is secure, the Web2 access layer (such as email login) is becoming the weakest link in the prediction market.

• Admin privilege risks: Even in a decentralized framework, many platforms still retain admin privileges to pause markets or upgrade contracts. If these privileges are abused or compromised, it could not only endanger user funds and market fairness but also weaken the overall security perimeter of the system, creating systemic risks.

Regulatory Landscape: Global Fragmentation and "Localized Governance"

Regulatory Status by Region

The high fragmentation of the regulatory environment is considered another long-term challenge faced by the prediction market. The report outlines policy differences across various jurisdictions:

In the United States, although the Kalshi v. CFTC case's victory established federal legitimacy, state-level restrictions in states like New York and California may lead to a "fragmented" compliance environment.

In the European Union, Portugal and Hungary have banned some platforms for operating unauthorized gambling; although the EU's MiCA legislation has come into effect, the gambling exemption clause provides regulators with legal space to ban prediction markets.

In contrast to the tug-of-war in Europe and the U.S., Hong Kong, Dubai, and Singapore are actively establishing clear regulatory frameworks for prediction markets. The report predicts that Hong Kong is expected to clarify relevant rules soon, incorporating prediction markets as compliant financial products.

Future Outlook: How Will Security Technology Define the "Second Half"?

The prediction market platforms that can survive in the long term must simultaneously meet three conditions: maintain liquidity across multiple jurisdictions, build safe infrastructures to attract institutional funds, and break free from a high dependence on incentive-driven trading volume, forming a sustainable business model.

Security Risk Assessment Heatmap

As prediction markets evolve from retail speculation platforms to "uncertainty pricing infrastructures," their security and reliability are becoming key factors determining the industry's direction. The security challenges faced by the industry have expanded from a singular smart contract risk to encompass systemic issues involving oracle mechanisms, admin privilege management, and the hybrid architecture of Web2 and Web3.

Currently, prediction markets manage institutional-level funds, but their infrastructures have not yet been stress-tested under such volumes. In response to these risks, CertiK has launched targeted solutions including smart contract auditing, Skynet real-time monitoring, oracle security reviews, and Web2.5 penetration testing to assess and mitigate potential security vulnerabilities on the contract, privilege, and infrastructure levels.

The report concludes that as institutional funding and regulatory attention increase simultaneously, security capabilities are gradually becoming the basic condition for prediction market platforms to gain long-term trust and ensure sustainable development.

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