The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for the benefit! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to convey the most valuable market information to the vast number of cryptocurrency enthusiasts. I welcome all friends in the crypto community to follow and like, and I refuse any market smoke screens!
The current downtrend is almost at its end, and the market rumors continue to spread negative news. There will always be news leaks; one moment it's about Trump planning to start storing BTC at a price of 60K, and the next it's about Binance's funds selling BTC as a trigger. Overall, the current news landscape is predominantly negative, which is very unfriendly for many friends trying to buy the dip. Many friends also hope that Lao Cui can share his views on this trend; such speculation is of no benefit to the market, especially not much help for personal gains. The existence value of the crypto world has different attributes compared to traditional financial industries, and the lack of regulation means accepting human manipulation. This round of decline has not shown the previous bear market trend, which in Lao Cui's eyes is already quite conservative. You can look at the previous bear market phase, which almost dropped from 60K to around 10K, with a total decline exceeding 90%.
Even if everyone finds the main cause of this decline, it cannot change the problem at hand; a halved price is not the doing of one person. The giants we all know are all involved without exception. Especially looking at the capital fluctuations of Binance, after this wave of decline, there has been a massive outflow of BTC from Binance into cold wallets. This form seems like a profit-sharing, and the giants are already settling accounts, with the market showing signs of stabilization. Last October, the entire crypto world saw a price of 120K for the first time, and recently it has halved to around 60K. The explosion of the 10/11 event and the countless high-leverage buy-the-dip attempts recently faced liquidation can be said to be a targeted strike. Lao Cui firmly believes in the real existence of blockchain technology and decentralization, and WEB3 is the true short-term goal supporting the crypto world. In Lao Cui's understanding, the great harmony of the world cannot be separated from blockchain technology.
Under these preconditions, especially with the emergence of new technologies, the support mainly comes from young people. The characteristics of young people are very clear; they are eager to engage in speculative behavior. The contracts in the crypto world align perfectly with their ideas, with 24-hour settlements, high leverage, and casual entry and exit, all of which fit the investment mindset of young people. It is precisely because of these conditions that figures like Liang Xi and Wei Strategy emerge, turning a thousand into thirty million in just three days. In any financial market, this would become a prominent figure in positive publicity. The commonality of humanity is the desire to see extreme heroism, thus overlooking Liang Xi's outcome. People are in such debt, yet everyone only focuses on the miracle of three days. Life is more than just three days. It can be said that from them, one can see the survival logic of the crypto world; the logic of the crypto market is far stricter than any other market.
One must have the ability to control their emotions, must have their own trading logic and strictly adhere to it, and must possess ample energy to cope with 24-hour settlements. If one cannot achieve these, they will fall into a self-repeating cycle, frequently trading their own opinions, which will turn into a self-perceived path to salvation. Recently, users in Lao Cui's circle have encountered such problems. They provided almost completely correct strategies, yet the final feedback to Lao Cui was a liquidation. Lao Cui can certainly understand the emergence of such behavior, especially when faced with temptations of new lows over the past two years, combined with the high point above 120K, countless people want to go long. The reasons they give themselves are merely that there is still a possibility of doubling by going long at this stage, always fixating on the high point of 120K, making it difficult to control their hands. Thus, they ultimately overlook the fact that the short-term trend is still downward. Even though Lao Cui emphasizes that going long can only be done with spot trading and contracts can only be shorted, this emphasis has instead caused confusion for everyone.
Why can spot trading go long? This is a question many users ask Lao Cui. Clearly bearish yet asking everyone to buy in spot? This is a cyclical issue; with many young people, everyone has a speculative mindset, which leads to the cyclical nature of the crypto world being far lower than that of traditional financial markets. The previously recognized four-year cycle, from the bear market of 2022 to the launch in 2024, has only a two-year gap. This means that even if everyone buys the dip in spot at any position, at most they will be stuck for 2-4 years. As long as the crypto world exists in the market, this cycle cannot be changed. Under the push of the larger trend, the current currency has obvious shortcomings; however, the trading in the crypto world has, at this stage, replaced banks' positions for ordinary users. But as long as everyone uses cold wallet technology, they can directly bypass the interference of exchanges. The technology in the crypto world has not shown any significant shortcomings, which means it is indeed more reliable than traditional currency.
Everyone should think from another perspective; whether it is domestic suppression or foreign suppression, it ultimately boils down to one point: the issue of capital outflow cannot be resolved. This is the fundamental reason for the existing contradiction. If this can be resolved, then the existence of the crypto world would have no significance. Transactions in cold wallets are completely untraceable, just like this time when the giants sold off; who can sniff out the business opportunity? As long as this technology is not conquered, its value will always exist. It remains to be seen how much impact the subsequent increase in computing power will have on the crypto world. Including concerns about whether stablecoins will impact the crypto world? Strictly speaking, stablecoins are merely substitutes for fiat currency; they do not belong to cryptocurrencies and can be traced. Even after a mistake in issuance by a South Korean exchange, 99.7% of the assets were recovered within just three hours. Stablecoins will be even faster. The only thing exchanges can limit is your accounts; what you currently see in your accounts are just numbers. The exchanges have not transferred the actual coins to you, meaning your coins still exist in the exchange's wallet. Only when you withdraw to your wallet will they be transferred out. The limitation on your ability is merely reflected in the numbers.
Lao Cui summarizes: After discussing many issues, the main point is still to hope that everyone does not let short-term trends blind their eyes. The expansion of the market is inevitable, and the regulation in various places and the involvement of giants are gradually loosening; do not let a few instances of human factors cause panic in the crypto world. Do not just listen to what the giants are saying; pay more attention to whether they are actually contributing. CZ called for a super bull market cycle, smashing Bitcoin from the 10K mark down to 60K, while Binance's profit-sharing has officially ended, which seems more like a starting opportunity for everyone. It remains to be seen whether Trump will allow Americans to strategically reserve at 60K; if achieved, there may still be a possibility of a market crash. Lao Cui's stance is not to enter short positions; the future trend will more likely revolve around a fluctuating upward trend. Those holding spot can take a break and wait for profits, while contract users with current losses can wait for recovery before making decisions. The depth of the shorts will not be too deep; perhaps from now on, a new trend will start. As long as it can start, the overall recovery will only be completed within half a month; at this stage, just hold on.
Original creation by WeChat Official Account: Lao Cui Talks About Coins. For assistance, please contact directly.
Lao Cui's message: Investing is like playing chess; a master can see five, seven, or even more than ten moves ahead, while a novice can only see two or three moves. The master considers the overall situation, strategizes for the big picture, and does not focus on individual pieces or positions, aiming for the ultimate victory. The novice, however, fights for every inch, frequently switching between long and short positions, only competing for short-term gains, resulting in frequent troubles.
This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading based on this is at your own risk!
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