XRP has returned to its 200-week moving average near $1.41 according to TradingView, a level that now acts as the cycle’s structural pivot. After an aggressive drop from the $3.3-$3.6 zone with no weekly base built above, the speed of the retrace was inevitable.
Now, XRP is testing - not reclaiming - this long-term line, with candle bodies closing flat along it. This isn’t bounce behavior, but it’s also not collapse.
XRP/USD by TradingView
As long as price holds and reclaims this level on a weekly close, the broader supercycle narrative remains valid. Below it, unfinished business from the prior accumulation phase could pull the XRP price back to $1 or lower.
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XRP is back to the point that'll determine if the cryptocurrency is now in a recovery mode or a longer correction cycle, and the problem for buyers is that the current behavior isn't a victory bounce. It's acceptance testing.
Why did XRP lose 30% in one weekly candle?
The $1.6-$2 zone tells the story. It helped support the distribution, but then it failed to produce a higher low, flipped to resistance, and the price of XRP didn't spend time reclaiming it. Until the week closes above the 200-week average, any upside is just corrective, with $2.4 and then $3 acting like barriers, not the open road.
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Because of that, the drop felt fast and deep. The last impulse was vertical, and XRP ended up with very little developed weekly base above the 200-week average. When the distribution range of $3.3-$3.6 broke down, there wasn't much established price structure for XRP to catch the price on the way back.
If the 200-week average breaks, the next defined weekly demand is about $1 from both a technical and fundamental point of view.
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