On February 8, 2026, against the backdrop of severe fluctuations and collective deleveraging in the crypto market, a key moment unfolded: the Trend Research address related to Yi Lihua continued to sell off ETH heavily, including transferring approximately 534 ETH to Binance, essentially completing a round of liquidation, while also selling a large amount of 20,770 ETH, with a transaction scale of about 43.57 million USD. In this sell-off intertwined with panic, liquidation, and proactive reduction, the market did not experience a one-sided loss; a considerable amount of capital quietly absorbed the selling pressure below. The capital positions are quietly rearranging, with the ETH released by Trend shifting from high-sensitivity trading hands to "patient capital" willing to endure volatility. What this turnover is ultimately betting on has become the most intriguing suspense in this round of turmoil.
Chain Reaction of Trend's Large Holder Liquidation Sale
● Liquidation action fixed at the last 534 ETH: According to on-chain and exchange data, the Trend-related address transferred approximately 534 ETH to Binance on February 8, viewed as the "tail warehouse" handling of a previous heavy layout cycle, essentially completing a phase of liquidation. This is not an isolated single transfer but the final step of multiple rounds of reduction, indicating that most of its liquid chips have been pushed to the market for public bidding.
● Another 20,000 ETH sell-off, transaction amount exceeding 43.57 million USD: During the same period, Trend did not choose to stop but sold another 20,770 ETH, with an average selling price of approximately 2,097.94 USD, resulting in a transaction scale of about 43.57 million USD. Such a volume concentrated in a single trading day directly intensified the selling pressure in the market, further pushing the already fragile sentiment towards stop-loss and forced liquidation thresholds.
● Key data reveals the rhythm of chip migration: After this round of continuous reduction, the related address still retains about 10,303 ETH, estimated at around 21.5 million USD at the same average price. This set of numbers indicates that it is not an absolute "zero exit," still retaining some elastic positions, while also allowing the market to clearly see that from the previous heavy holding phase to the current significant reduction, Trend has transferred a considerable proportion of chips to the market, completing the role switch from "holder" to "pricing influencer."
● From heavy holding to reduction, directly prying open the market's weak points: Trend's early heavy layout, followed by the concentrated release of a massive amount of chips around February 8, coincided with the overall market's deleveraging and the amplification of panic sentiment. The chain reaction of large spot and derivative liquidations amplified the market's response to this sell-off, compressing what could have been a dispersed digestion of selling pressure into a shorter time frame, creating the visual effect of a "liquidation-style crash."
Massive Buying Quietly Supports Under Panic Sell-off
● Chain reaction of selling under emotional collapse: Since early February, the crypto market where ETH resides has experienced a significant "crash-like" decline, with leveraged funds being passively liquidated, and stop-loss and forced liquidation orders being triggered continuously at key price levels. The rapid price decline further reinforced the sentiment, with some short-term funds choosing to flee without regard to price levels, amplifying the visual impact of large holders like Trend selling.
● Contrarian buyers emerge but their identity remains a "black box": Even in such extreme environments, the market was still able to absorb the selling pressure of 20,770 ETH, indicating that there are funds with relatively lower price sensitivity and stronger risk tolerance ready to catch these chips below. However, current public information has not disclosed specific buyers, whether they are institutions, proprietary trading desks, or other whale addresses, remains at the level of speculation and cannot be responsibly confirmed.
● Comparison of selling scale and absorption strength in "capital turnover": As a result, this round of Trend's sell-off did not lead to a complete liquidity drain or deep flash crash, indicating that the absorption strength of the counterparty roughly matched the selling volume. It resembles a transfer from sensitive funds like Trend to a new batch of medium to long-term funds, rather than a one-sided capital flight. Although prices experienced severe corrections, the more core change occurred in the structure of chip holders rather than the total market value itself.
● The role of contrarian buying on short-term prices and liquidity: This type of contrarian large buying that appears during panic phases provides necessary buying depth to the market, slowing down continuous declines and preventing slippage from evolving into systemic crashes; on the other hand, it also lays the foundation for subsequent price stabilization. The cost band formed by the absorbing funds in the current range will become a key area for short-term long-short competition, potentially building a local bottom or being forced to retest in a secondary impact.
Deleveraging Cleanup: The "Tourists" Mentioned by Hayes Are Shown the Door
● Hayes's framework: Clear leverage first, then restore upward movement: The viewpoint of BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes provides a concise framework for this round of volatility—the market will quickly clear out investors who are overly leveraged before there is a chance to restore upward movement. The current severe adjustment of ETH precisely fits this description: first, through violent fluctuations, the high-leverage long and short sides are "squeezed out," then space is created for a more robust trend.
● How deleveraging amplifies the shockwave of Trend's sell-off: In a highly leveraged environment, Trend's one-time sell-off of tens of thousands of ETH is not just a simple rebalancing of spot supply and demand but also triggers a chain reaction of liquidations. As prices quickly reach the warning and liquidation lines of leveraged positions, automated sell orders are triggered layer by layer, magnifying Trend's proactive reduction into a deleveraging tsunami across the entire market, far exceeding what can be explained by the actions of that address alone.
● The interplay of "tourist-type funds" being cleaned out and long-term funds entering: The "tourist-type funds" referred to by Hayes mainly refer to short-term funds chasing short-term fluctuations and relying on high leverage to amplify profits. This batch of funds was quickly cleaned out during this round of turmoil, while the funds absorbing the selling pressure from large holders like Trend are closer to long-term players—they chose to increase their positions during panic rather than scramble for top premiums. Thus, we see two narratives coexisting: tourists being cleared out, while old players and new long-term capital quietly fill the gaps during the bloodbath.
● Clearing leverage rather than a "secret conspiracy": Based on current public information, this round of decline resembles a typical leverage clearing cycle, with no credible evidence pointing to a single "conspiracy theory" dominating the market. Trend's sell-off, the general deleveraging in the market, and the emotional chain reaction are the natural results of multiple factors overlapping. Simplifying the complex capital game into the actions of some behind-the-scenes puppet does not help investors truly understand the sources of risk, nor does it aid in judging future rhythms.
Capital Position Swap: Who Is Taking Chips Away from Panic
● Looking at the direction of chip migration from Trend's reduction: Trend's shift from early heavy holding to the concentrated sell-off of approximately 20,770 ETH plus the tail warehouse of 534 ETH carries a core meaning: high-sensitivity, more flexible trading motives choose to exit most of their chips during the violent fluctuations. The funds that can absorb this batch of ETH at this time are likely to have a higher tolerance for short-term volatility and are more willing to bet on medium to long-term narratives. Chips are flowing from those pursuing liquidity and flexibility to those willing to endure drawdowns in exchange for time value.
● The three-way tug-of-war of large holder liquidation, leveraged liquidation, and long-term buying: This round of market movement is not a simple story in one direction but a counterbalance of three forces: first, large holders like Trend actively reducing positions to lock in phase gains or risks; second, leveraged funds passively caught in volatility and forced to liquidate due to insufficient margin; third, long-term buyers actively placing orders to absorb and attempt to accumulate at low levels during the chaos. The price trajectory is the result of the combined efforts of the three, rather than a linear reflection of any one party's will.
● The impact of turnover on volatility, circulation structure, and discourse power: If after this round of turnover, more ETH is concentrated in a few large addresses willing to hold long-term, short-term selling pressure may ease as a result, but future volatility in both upward and downward movements will also be amplified by the actions of these addresses, concentrating market discourse power. Meanwhile, the discourse power of retail investors and high-leverage funds is relatively weakened, and prices will fluctuate more around medium to long-term expectations, macro environments, and institutional allocation demands.
● The difference between price collapse and chip restructuring: For observers, looking solely at the K-line drop makes it easy to equate this volatility with a "price collapse." However, Trend's reduction and the absorption by counterparties indicate that the more essential process is the transfer of chips from one group of participants to another. Price is the surface, while the adjustment of chip structure is the underlying reality. Focusing only on the drop while ignoring the flow of chips often leads to missing the judgment of the characteristics and dominant forces of the next phase of volatility.
After the Storm: What This Contrarian Absorption Is Betting On
The significant sell-off from Trend-related addresses around February 8, along with the emergence of massive contrarian absorption in the market, together constitute a typical ETH chip restructuring event. On one side are large holders actively reducing exposure and releasing tens of thousands of ETH in selling pressure, while on the other side are funds willing to open buy orders amid panic to catch these chips. Prices experienced short-term violent fluctuations, but what was truly reshaped was who holds the coins and who dominates the discourse power.
If, as Arthur Hayes said, this round of deleveraging has entered the mid to late stages, and the overly leveraged "tourist-type funds" are being orderly cleared out, then the funds that are absorbing against the trend during the decline are more likely betting on the medium to long-term narrative and fundamentals of ETH—including technological upgrade paths, on-chain application ecosystems, and the potential expansion space for institutional participation. Of course, this kind of bet is not without risk; rather, it is entering the table in a higher volatility environment.
What is worth closely tracking next is the continued movement of large on-chain addresses: including whether there are signals of sustained accumulation, reduction, or chip consolidation; the changes in leverage levels in the spot and derivatives markets to see if funds have truly completed deleveraging or if it is just a temporary respite before re-leveraging. Additionally, it is important to be cautious that the short-term cost area of these absorbing funds is likely still within the range of this round of violent fluctuations, and if negative macro or regulatory factors re-emerge, a secondary impact cannot be ruled out, leading the market to experience another round of more testing volatility.
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