What to know : Wall Street analysts say Strategy's massive fourth-quarter losses are largely non-cash accounting charges tied to bitcoin's price drop and do not indicate a liquidity crisis or imminent forced selling. With roughly 713,500 bitcoin worth nearly $50 billion against about $8.2 billion in convertible debt and $2.25 billion in cash, analysts argue Strategy's balance sheet can withstand prolonged bitcoin weakness without breaching debt terms. Both TD Cowen and Benchmark maintain Buy ratings, viewing Strategy as a leveraged vehicle for bitcoin exposure.
Wall Street analysts covering Strategy (MSTR) broadly agree on one point after the company’s fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday: the headline losses look dramatic, but they do not signal a liquidity crisis or forced bitcoin selling.
Strategy reported a $17.4 billion operating loss and a $12.6 billion net loss for the quarter, figures driven largely by non-cash mark-to-market accounting tied to bitcoin’s price decline. Both TD Cowen and Benchmark said the market reaction missed that context, sending shares down about 17% on a day when bitcoin and other risk assets were already under pressure.
Shares are higher by 21% on Friday as bitcoin climbs from yesterday's low of $60,000 to back above $70,000.
The two analysts agree the core debate centers on solvency, not profitability. Strategy holds 713,502 bitcoin, worth nearly $50 billion at current prices, against about $8.2 billion in convertible debt. Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer said the company would only face true balance-sheet stress if bitcoin fell below $8,000 and stayed there for years. Management emphasized on the earnings call that none of its debt carries covenants or triggers tied to bitcoin’s price or its average purchase cost.
TD Cowen’s Lance Vitanza also focused on the durability of the capital structure. He argued that Strategy was built to amplify bitcoin’s volatility by design, with common equity trading at roughly 1.5 times bitcoin’s swings. That leverage cuts both ways. Vitanza said the company’s $2.25 billion cash reserve and staggered debt maturities mean there is no reasonable scenario where Strategy would be forced to sell bitcoin in the near term, even if prices remain depressed.
Where analysts differ is less about risk and more about framing. TD Cowen leaned into Strategy’s role as a “digital credit engine,” highlighting its growing preferred equity business and the liquidity of its STRC preferred stock, which pays an 11.25% annualized dividend. Benchmark placed more weight on bitcoin’s long-term price path and the optionality embedded in Strategy’s equity if bitcoin rallies.
Both firms remain constructive on the stock. Benchmark reiterated a Buy rating with a $705 price target, based on a sum-of-the-parts model that assumes bitcoin reaches $225,000 by the end of 2026. TD Cowen also maintained a Buy rating, arguing that Strategy remains one of the most efficient ways for investors to gain leveraged bitcoin exposure outside of ETFs, though it did not disclose a specific price target in its note.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
