Organizer: Cora
This Week's Focus
Overall, despite the significant short-term financial pressure on Strategy, its cash flow remains abundant. Moreover, Strategy is well-prepared to continue executing its "Bitcoin Standard" strategic route. This extreme focus on "anchoring to Bitcoin" is both a bet on market cycles and a test of its own narrative capabilities.
Trend Research's "amputation for survival" began on January 29. At that time, the market faced another sharp decline, causing Ethereum to plummet significantly, dropping to $2,800 in a short period. Meanwhile, Trend Research immediately withdrew 36.39 million USDT from Binance, depositing it in Aave in batches as collateral to reduce liquidation risk. At that time, the Ethereum holdings of the institution's address exceeded 661,200 ETH, with an average cost of about $3,104.36, but the unrealized loss had already approached $180 million.
“With the 'Bear Market' Fully Arrived, Is There 'New Vitality' Hidden in the Crypto Winter?”
Many analysts have noted a significant reduction in profit-taking behavior among long-term holders, which may indicate that the market bottom of this cycle is forming. Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish pointed out that the BTC MVRV Z-Score indicator has compressed to its lowest level since October 2022. This adjustment of the indicator means that the market's unrealized profitability has undergone a robust correction, and Bitcoin's price has returned to fair value after the previous expansion.
“The 'Bread Game' in New York's Winter: Kalshi and Polymarket Engage in a Street Brand Duel”
The two major prediction market giants, Kalshi and Polymarket, have coincidentally engaged in a "community experiment": distributing free groceries to New Yorkers. Against the backdrop of the new mayor of New York, Zohran Mamdani, promising to establish a "municipal supermarket" to address food issues, these two companies, which make a living by "predicting the future," staged a brand duel with the most tangible "bread and milk" during the cold winter.
Currently, there are few signs of large whales or long-term holders significantly increasing their Bitcoin holdings, although the profit-taking behavior of long-term holders has begun to decrease noticeably. The market lacks effective "catalysts," and the narrative aspect is also unfavorable for Bitcoin. Bitcoin has failed to rise in sync with gold and silver, not serving as part of the overall market's "currency devaluation hedge trade."
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The controversy over lawmakers profiting from insider trading continues to brew. President Trump publicly accused Pelosi of illegally profiting from stock trading, while many on the other end of the political spectrum accused the president himself of engaging in improper insider trading. Although the STOCK Act may promote change, the American public seems to be growing numb to it.
“A Comprehensive Analysis of the Sui Ecosystem and Data: Does the 'Solana Killer' Claim Still Hold?”
Aside from fierce competition, Sui seems to be entering a "no man's land" (bear market phase) in terms of adoption, while the token unlocks for the team and investors also put pressure on the SUI token. This feels similar to what Solana experienced in the last bear market. Given that Sui has ample funding and developer support, we will closely monitor how the team responds to the upcoming challenges.
“CME to Issue Tokens? Wall Street Giants' 'New Hunt'”
Looking at the big picture, CME's strategy is not isolated. JPMorgan has recently launched a tokenized deposit service on Coinbase's Layer 2 blockchain Base through its token called JPM Coin (JPMD). Unlike traditional transfers that take days to process, JPMD achieves settlement in seconds, quietly changing the way large financial institutions allocate positions. These financial giants follow a similar path: embracing the efficiency of blockchain while firmly maintaining traditional power structures.
“OpenClaw and Moltbook Incident Review: From AI Social Narratives to Agent Economy Outlook”
Through the explosive event of Moltbook, a key technological change can be observed: Agents have begun to attempt to cross the usual boundaries of human-machine collaboration to complete tasks, but the existing traditional financial infrastructure is still designed only for "human users."
Looking at the $44 billion, over 90% of Kalshi's volume is from sports betting, while Polymarket's volume is concentrated on major events like elections and geopolitical issues. The liquidity for everyday prediction demand remains thin. Whether HIP-4 can attract incremental users or simply add another button among existing traders remains unanswered. However, Hyperliquid clearly does not want to become the next Polymarket; it aims to make prediction a native capability of existing trading engines, as fundamental and natural as perpetual contracts.
Ten News Items Not to Miss This Week
Circle and Polymarket have reached a partnership to introduce stablecoin infrastructure for prediction markets.
Brazil plans to ban algorithmic stablecoins, with violations potentially leading to up to 8 years in prison.
The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission plans to ease arrangements, possibly allowing licensed virtual asset trading platforms to offer tokenized securities secondary trading to retail investors.
On-chain governance tool Tally will conduct an ICO and launch a fundraising platform based on Uniswap CCA.
Bitwise will acquire cryptocurrency staking service provider Chorus One.
ZKsync will launch a ZKnomics staking pilot program.
South Korean fintech company Hecto joins Circle's payment network.
Caixin: JD has not withdrawn its application for a stablecoin license in Hong Kong.
Ripple receives a full license from Luxembourg's CSSF as an EU electronic money institution.
A court in Nevada, USA, issued a temporary restraining order prohibiting Polymarket from providing event contract services.
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