The sudden explosion of the AI Agent economy driven by Moltbook has given rise to a series of crypto projects. These all belong to the AI + Crypto track that I have been focusing on for a long time. Therefore, I naturally developed a strong interest and high attention towards these projects—hoping that a stunning project will emerge in this wave of innovation.

However, while browsing related information online in the past few days, I noticed a prominent phenomenon:

Many people have a particular fondness for praising certain well-known project leaders, prominent chain leaders, or big names in the field, believing that only such projects represent the future of this ecosystem, and only these types of projects are hopeful and worth paying attention to.

I believe that this obsession with the celebrity effect is a significant taboo in investing.

I am not dismissing projects recommended or followed by celebrities; rather, I am saying that if one solely uses whether a project is being followed by celebrities or KOLs as the only criterion to judge its potential and value, it will undoubtedly lead to significant losses.

There are countless counterexamples, not only in history but also in the recent development of the crypto ecosystem.

From a general perspective, statistics have long shown that even well-known venture capitalists have a success rate of only about 20% for the projects they invest in. This means that nearly 80% of the projects invested in by well-known venture capitalists ultimately fail.

From the perspective of project success probability, this success rate is not high at all.

Let’s look at some familiar cases from the past few years. A typical example is the development of Ethereum's Layer 2 scaling solutions.

In the beginning, we saw the competition between Optimism and Arbitrum.

At that time, Optimism was the darling of the crowd, while Arbitrum was relatively dull. But now, the development of these two has completely reversed; OP has long lost its former glory, while Arb, although still relatively dull, is overall much more prosperous than OP.

Later, we saw Scroll and MegaETH. These two projects were born with a halo, not only having strong team backgrounds and solid technical capabilities but also being backed by members of the Ethereum Foundation as personal investors.

But how are these two developing now?

One seems to be lost, while the other is still conducting various tests online.

Then we saw BASE, which was initially not taken seriously: it lacked technical advancement, had no outstanding positional advantage, and even worse, it didn’t have a token issuance plan.

When it was first born, the vast majority of people regarded it as just another mediocre Layer 2 scaling solution.

But now, its activity in the ecosystem can be said to be among the top in the entire Ethereum Layer 2 scaling solutions.

Interestingly, this originally overlooked Layer 2 scaling solution, after its own explosion, has played out the same story within its thriving ecosystem.

In the past few years, Farcaster, which Coinbase heavily supported and assisted, has declined and transformed.

The content token project ZORA, which Coinbase has been promoting and building, has not made any progress over the years.

On the contrary, a project that Coinbase has consistently avoided or even deliberately distanced itself from, Virtual, has turned BASE into a star platform in the AI + Crypto track.

So let’s not fall into the obsession with celebrities, big names, and KOLs anymore.

For me, the only advantage of projects with a halo is that they allow me to see and understand them earlier than other projects.

That’s all.

Aside from that, they have no additional advantages.

I see all projects ultimately reduced to some fundamental indicators:

What is the user response, what problems are being solved, and is there a sustainable internal development mechanism?

If these indicators are not met, even divine endorsement will not be effective.

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