In the past week, the market experienced an extreme "panic moment": the total liquidation amount across the network surged to $2.5 billion from January 31 to February 1, marking the 10th largest liquidation event in crypto history. BTC briefly fell below the $75K mark, reaching the cost price of MicroStrategy. Despite the market being filled with many bloggers and KOLs shouting "zeroing out" and "deep bear market" theories, from a macro analysis and technical evolution perspective, this is not the end of the bull market, but rather a deep structural adjustment triggered by institutional deleveraging and macro risk aversion sentiment resonating together.

First, let's look at the two core protagonists of this round of liquidations: one is the rumored insider whale linked to Trump's son, who had a single full liquidation exceeding $700 million on Hyperliquid, accumulating losses of over $128 million since its operation began in October 2025. The other is Yi Lihua's Trend Research, which started aggressively leveraging ETH from $2700 and has been continuously selling to supplement margin in recent days, effectively surrendering. With these two capitulating, the leverage in the market has been largely cleaned up.

Macroeconomic Driving Factors

On a macro level, the partial shutdown of U.S. government departments, negotiations between Trump and Iran, and the substantive ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine are all short-term disturbances. However, the deeper driving force is AGI (Artificial General Intelligence), which will pump the U.S. stock market's AI sector again (NVIDIA, MSFT, GOOG, etc.). The precious metals sector serves two main purposes: countering the decline of the dollar + hedging geopolitical risks. When these two risks are alleviated (peace in Ukraine and Russia, temporary stabilization of the dollar), gold and silver will not plummet sharply but will enter a stagnation phase.

Of course, some viewpoints suggest that the massive purchases of gold by a mysterious major country are to endorse the internationalization of the RMB, while buying silver is a hard necessity for high-tech (photovoltaics, electronics, AI chips). This logic is solid, but it does not change the oscillation pattern of precious metals in the short term. The crypto market is strongly tied to the U.S. stock market. The narrative that the U.S. stock market can borrow is AI, and this time AGI is particularly crucial. Otherwise, after peace in Ukraine, a lot of capital may withdraw from the U.S. back to Europe, posing a risk to risk assets.

Technical Aspects: The Underlying Support and Application of the Agent Wave

Then, on the technical side, the most underrated event in the past few days is the official launch of ERC-8004. This is a protocol designed specifically for "trustless AI agents" on Ethereum, providing three major modules: on-chain identity registration, reputation scoring, and verification registration. Combined with the x402 payment protocol promoted by Coinbase, AI Agents can finally achieve "trustless discovery, seamless payment, and autonomous collaboration."

In the past few days, Moltbook (an AI Agent exclusive social network derived from OpenClaw/Clawdbot) has been trending, with millions of Agents socializing, posting, and even founding "religions" (Crustafarianism). The Agent-themed meme tokens like $CLAW, $MOLT, and $CLAWNCH on the Base chain surged over 10 times in the short term, followed by a pullback, but their trading volume and on-chain activity far exceed traditional memes.

Unlike the Shitcoins on BSC, this is not a wave of hype but a signal that the era of Agent applications has truly arrived. The new market will be driven by "technology" rather than "narrative." The Claw concept sector on the Base chain is becoming a testing ground for Agent implementation: low fees, high throughput, and a native Agent toolchain, avoiding the hollowing-out trap of Solana memes. The emotional narrative is still present but leans towards real implementation.

Resonance Effect Between Traditional AI and Crypto Circles

At the same time, a resonance is occurring between the traditional AI circle (OpenAI, Anthropic, etc.) and the crypto circle. The approach of AGI is smoothing out the gap between the stagnation of crypto technology over the past two years and the traditional tech circle. The arrival of zero technical barriers means that vertical market functional applications will be widely promoted. The past phenomenon of "bad money driving out good" in the crypto circle will change. Because the emotional response of Agents is faster than humans, spreads wider, and executes more decisively. Even in memes, humans cannot keep up with the quantitative charge of Agents.

The era of micro-quantification has truly arrived: Agents can monitor 24/7, conduct micro-trading, automate arbitrage, and spread socially. x402 and ERC-8004 are no longer narratives but have entered the application era of a technological explosion. The Virtuals Protocol and Claw ecosystem projects on Base will actually benefit first after this round of decline. The Claw concept sector belongs to an emerging track: when the market rebounds, they will rise due to incremental funds; when the market declines, they will become a narrative sector for risk aversion. This is also the reason why memes do not die; narratives are always iterating.

Intra-Market Interlude: Six Major Factions Attacking the Bright Summit

Then, aside from the major cleanup, the most exciting drama is the infighting within the CEX, where Cathie Wood fired shots at Binance during a Fox Business live broadcast, directly pointing out that the culprit of the October 11 incident was Binance, leading to a wave of criticism from the online community. Subsequently, OKX founder Star Xu posted a lengthy message, accusing Binance of using USDe's 12% high-yield marketing + zero-risk control margin to amplify leverage, resulting in a chain liquidation "more severe than FTX." The public opinion that was suppressed on October 11 has now erupted, leading to a collective condemnation from the entire crypto circle, akin to six major factions attacking the Bright Summit, creating quite a stir.

Referencing Lei Jun's reliance on enthusiasts, hunger marketing trending, and cost-performance narrative dominance, once the technological iteration arrives and the traffic dividend fades, all the previously suppressed technical doubts will rebound.

The crypto circle is the same. Those deeply bound to Agents will gain the upper hand as the technical narrative returns.

In Conclusion

Regarding the question of whether to buy the dip, my view is simple: not buying at $80K might lead to regret when seeing $98K, but seeing $75K might bring relief; however, as Livermore said, to know the outcome, you have to place a bet.

Holding spot + long-term assets with a technical narrative is the correct answer to traverse the cycle.

This Agent wave is the most certain Alpha opportunity in the past five years.

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