Event Review ⚡

Recently, the BTC market has undergone dramatic changes. After breaking through the support level of $74,000, the market regained confidence following the passage of a funding bill by the U.S. government, leading to a significant reversal in Bitcoin's price in a very short time. Market news indicates that after lingering at low levels, institutions and large holders began to adjust their positions and gradually build their holdings, pushing BTC from about $73,100 to nearly $76,900 in just 101 minutes, an increase of over 5%. This process not only reflects the positive impact of favorable policies on market sentiment but also reveals signals of a turning point for long-term loss positions on a technical level.

Timeline ⏱

• 02:32: BTC price falls below $74,000, breaking a key support level, and market sentiment is extremely low.
• 02:34: Various reports indicate that BTC's support level (around $74,508) is under pressure, with some analysts suggesting that the second half of the bear market has arrived.
• 02:44: The U.S. House of Representatives passes a funding bill to end part of the government shutdown, eliminating the uncertainty caused by the political deadlock.
• 03:00: Positive news begins to be released, and BTC starts a technical rebound at low levels (around $72,889–73,112), while institutions adjust their positions and on-chain data stabilizes.
• 03:00–05:00: In 101 minutes, BTC's price rapidly surges from low levels, overall increasing by about 5.2%, indicating a significant inflow of funds.
• 05:30: After the sharp rise, BTC's price adjusts and stabilizes around $76,339, with volatility gradually decreasing.

Reason Analysis 💡

The recent sharp fluctuations in the market are mainly driven by two factors:

1. Policy Favorability Promotes Fund Inflow
   The funding bill that ended part of the government shutdown eliminated the uncertainty caused by the political deadlock, quickly restoring investor confidence. Funds shifted from a risk-averse state to risk assets, accelerating the rebound of BTC and other crypto products.

2. Institutional Operations and Technical Indicator Turning Points
   On-chain data shows that the 90-day SMA profit-loss ratio is gradually approaching the critical value of 1. Historical experience indicates that when this indicator falls below 1, it is often accompanied by widespread selling. However, current data is stabilizing, suggesting that previous loss positions have been gradually digested. At the same time, institutions and large holders are adjusting their positions and directing funds into the market, further promoting the formation of technical reversal signals.

Technical Analysis 📊

【Based on Binance BTC/USDT perpetual 45-minute candlestick data】

• Candlestick and Indicators
• The KDJ indicator shows a dispersed state, accompanied by an increase in upward trend strength.
• The candlestick pattern shows a doji, indicating that the market is in a hesitation phase, suggesting a possible trend reversal.
• Moving Average System
• Short-term moving averages (MA5, MA10, MA20) are in a bearish arrangement, indicating short-term bearish pressure.
• The price is facing resistance near MA20, but the MACD histogram is continuously increasing, indicating that upward momentum is gradually recovering.
• At the same time, the short-term RSI has broken through the upward trend line, releasing bullish signals.
• Volume Analysis
• Current trading volume is only 36.18% of the average level, indicating that market sentiment is relatively cautious; however, it shows an increase compared to the 10-day and 20-day average volumes, suggesting a recovery in short- to medium-term trading activity.
• Other Technical Signals
• TD Sequential is in a bullish Setup phase (7/9), suggesting the possibility of a bottom reversal.
• The overall EMA group (EMA5/10/20/50/120) shows a bearish trend, indicating that the medium- to long-term trend remains weak.

Market Outlook 🔮

Currently, after experiencing the impact of favorable policies and institutional position adjustments, BTC has seen a significant reversal in the short term. However, from a technical perspective, although the rebound momentum of MACD and RSI is evident, the moving average system still shows long-term bearish characteristics, with heavy short-term resistance. The net inflow of institutions and large transaction data indicate that the market is at a critical turning point in the tug-of-war between bulls and bears, and future trends may present the following scenarios:

• Continued Consolidation
  If the short-term rise lacks confidence, the market may experience a consolidation pullback, and investors should pay attention to the reaction at key support levels (such as near MA20 and EMA20).

• Continuation of Short-term Rebound
  If the policy environment and institutional funds continue to play a positive role, and key technical indicators improve further, BTC is expected to reach new short-term highs, but the long-term bearish arrangement still needs to be approached with caution.

• Alternating Bull and Bear Forces
  The tug-of-war between institutions and retail investors will continue, and the market may experience situations of "bulls killing bulls" and "bears killing bears," with volatility remaining at a high level.

Overall, the current market reflects a shift from extreme panic to a technical reversal, but the tug-of-war between bulls and bears will persist. Investors should closely monitor policy updates, on-chain fund flows, and changes in key technical indicators, while maintaining strict risk control and position management.

In this ever-changing moment, the BTC market illustrates the unique charm and risks of the crypto world through its dramatic fluctuations. Rationally grasping technical analysis and policy dynamics will help investors find the most stable opportunities amid the volatility.

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