Just as bitcoin tries to steady, the dollar index wakes up

CN
coindesk
Follow
3 hours ago


What to know : Bitcoin has stabilized between $75,000 and $80,000 after a sharp weekend sell-off. A resurgent U.S. dollar index, which has logged its strongest two-day gain in nine months, could arrest potential bitcoin recovery. Expectations that Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh will be cautious on interest-rate cuts, along with upcoming U.S. jobs data, are seen as potential drivers of further dollar strength.

Bitcoin's price sell-off has paused in the last 24 hours. However, prospects for a long-lasting recovery look dimmer as the dollar index springs back to life, threatening to squeeze crypto prices.

Prices for the leading cryptocurrency by market value have stabilized between $75,000 and $80,000 after a weekend decline that saw valuations drop from $85,000 to under $75,000. Some observers are pinning hopes on futures market dynamics to trigger a recovery above $80,000.

While that's possible, sustainability is called into question as the dollar index, which tracks the greenback's value against major fiat currencies, is buoyant. Some experts expect the dollar to stay bid in the near term.

A stronger dollar raises the opportunity cost of holding greenback-denominated assets, such as bitcoin, gold, and commodities. All things being equal, a rising DXY is typically bearish for BTC. Furthermore, a stronger dollar often leads to financial tightening—the flow of money and credit through the global economy becomes more costly, disincentivizing risk-taking in financial markets.

The DXY has risen 1.5% to 97.60 in two days, registering its best two-day gain in 9 months, according to data source TradingView. The renewed upswing is likely being fueled by fears that the incoming Federal Reserve President, Kevin Warsh, will be slow to cut interest rates, consistent with his reputation as a "policy hawk" earned during his term as Fed governor from 2006-2011.

"The dollar is looking healthier. The de-basement trade that seemed primarily behind the USD plunge of the past week has started to unwind since Kevin Warsh became U.S. President Donald Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve Chair," analysts at ING said in a note to clients.

Analysts added that the upcoming U.S. macroeconomic data releases, especially the nonfarm payrolls (jobs) report, could add fuel to the dollar recovery. The jobs report, initially scheduled for Feb. 6, has been delayed due to the partial federal government shutdown.

"Our call is for 80k payrolls and unchanged 4.4% unemployment, which can set the stage for a further stabilization/recovery in the dollar," analysts noted.

Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy, said that the USD bounce could have more room to run.

"While Warsh has recently aligned himself with Trump in calling for a lower fed funds rate, the fact that he was previously seen as a hawk during his stint as a Fed governor in the late-noughties means that he is probably less likely to advocate for aggressive cuts than Messrs Hassett and Reider," Ryan explained in a blog post on FXStreet.

免责声明:本文章仅代表作者个人观点,不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享,不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议,与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权,请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com,本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。

Share To
APP

X

Telegram

Facebook

Reddit

CopyLink