On February 3, 2026, Trend Research, an institution under Yi Lihua, was captured by on-chain data continuously transferring large amounts of ETH to Binance. The action of transferring tens of thousands of coins in a single day, accumulating nearly 100,000 coins recently, was quickly interpreted by the market as a concentrated manifestation of "whale selling pressure" and "a sharp contraction in risk appetite" amidst high-leverage speculation. On one side, institutional funds are pushing ETH towards the exchange, a "slaughter line" waiting to be processed, while on the other side, the bullish camp betting on Ethereum's mid-to-long-term value is in narrative conflict with the former, which was magnified under the microscope that day. The question then becomes sharp: is this massive transfer of nearly 93,600 ETH merely a fund adjustment by one institution, or does it signify a subtle turning point in the sentiment structure of ETH and the entire crypto market?
90,000 ETH Landing: Whale Actions Exposed
● From the on-chain rhythm, Trend Research's operations are not sporadic small amounts but exhibit clear "institutional-level execution" characteristics: a single transfer of 20,000 ETH to the exchange, equivalent to about $46.54 million at the time, with a total of 30,000 ETH transferred that day, forming a highly impactful concentrated "landing" node. Extending the time dimension, the recent ETH transferred to Binance has accumulated to 93,588 ETH, corresponding to a market value of about $215.14 million. Such continuous, bulk actions are hard to be seen as simple daily portfolio adjustments.
● Choosing to concentrate such a large amount of ETH into Binance inherently carries a strong "exchange behavior" implication. Compared to cold wallets or custodial institutions, exchanges are naturally the preliminary steps for liquidation, leverage adjustment, and position closing. Therefore, the market generally interprets this large transfer as preparation for sale or loan repayment. In a highly liquidity-sensitive environment, whales moving chips from on-chain to the "matching engine" almost equates to showing the bulls a tangible "preparation for selling pressure."
● Preliminary judgments from several on-chain tracking institutions suggest that this batch of funds is mainly used for selling and repaying loans, as the fund paths show a relatively clear back-and-forth relationship with known lending protocols and exchange accounts. However, it must be emphasized that this usage definition comes from on-chain path and behavior pattern analysis, not an official statement from Trend Research, nor is it regulatory information disclosure. In other words, the current market narrative is based on highly correlated rational inference, but there remains information asymmetry regarding motives and sources of pressure, leaving room for emotional amplification.
Ethereum as a Cautious Bird Under High-Leverage Speculation
● In the past period, while the ETH price has followed the overall market in a large trend, the intraday and weekly volatility has significantly amplified, frequently exhibiting high volatility patterns of rapid surges followed by quick pullbacks. The leverage utilization rate of futures and perpetual contracts remains high, with both bulls and bears frequently tugging at key price levels, placing the market structure in a state of "slight imbalance yet not completely out of control." In such a high-leverage context, any directional action of large chips is seen as a potential trigger for a chain liquidation.
● In a high-leverage environment, actions like tens of thousands of ETH being transferred to exchanges by Trend Research are automatically magnified by the market as a source of resonance for price and liquidation risk. The reason is that once some chips choose to sell in the open market, the price drop will not only impact spot holdings but also chain-reactively touch the margin red line for leveraged longs, triggering passive liquidations. Traders will thus anticipate "a small amount of real selling + a large amount of passive liquidation," leading to a self-fulfilling amplification loop in expectations and behaviors.
● Voices from media and research institutions are also fanning the flames. As summarized by Jinse Finance: "Institutions continuously transferring large amounts of ETH to exchanges are seen by the market as signals of potential selling pressure and a contraction in risk appetite." When such statements are widely quoted, the market no longer merely observes the wallet movements of one institution but elevates it to a symbol of "overall institutional attitude change." Thus, what could be seen as a single fund management action quickly evolves into a collective anxiety amplifier regarding the entire leverage structure and risk appetite.
The Dislocation of Bitcoin's Gold Rush and Ethereum's Retreat
● In stark contrast to the on-chain whales sending ETH to exchanges is the strong capital inflow on the same day from the Bitcoin spot ETF. Data shows that on that day, the total net inflow into BTC spot ETFs was $562 million, with Fidelity's FBTC seeing a net inflow of $153 million in a single day, clearly indicating a trend of traditional funds significantly increasing their BTC positions through compliant channels. From a traditional financial perspective, Bitcoin is solidifying its position as "digital gold" and "the preferred crypto asset," absorbing most of the new incremental funds.
● The funding situation for Ethereum's spot ETF appears more nuanced: on the same day, there was an overall net outflow of $2.8558 million, contrasting sharply with Bitcoin's strong capital inflow. However, the internal structure is not entirely bleak; for instance, Fidelity's FETH still achieved a net inflow of $66.624 million on that day, indicating that some institutions are still using price and sentiment fluctuations to build or increase ETH positions in batches. This structural differentiation of "overall slight outflow, significant inflow in individual channels" reflects a more complex and divided pricing expectation for ETH among institutions.
● When one side sees BTC through ETF channels "gobbling up capital", continuously reinforcing its core position in institutional asset allocation, while the other side sees ETH ETFs experiencing slight overall outflows, relying only on a few products for spot absorption, Trend Research's action of transferring 93,588 ETH to exchanges naturally takes on negative symbolic significance. It seems to convey a message to the market: amidst BTC's continued mainstream capital support, some originally firm bets on ETH by professional institutions are choosing to reduce or reshape their Ethereum exposure, which inadvertently weakens the narrative of ETH's relative attractiveness compared to BTC.
Forced De-leveraging or Active Profit Taking
● The market's interpretation of "the funds are mainly for selling and repaying loans" immediately brings to mind the scenario of passive de-leveraging: against the backdrop of price pullbacks and increased volatility, related positions may touch internal risk control lines, leading to increased margin pressure and triggering the need to reduce leverage or supplement liquidity. In this narrative, Trend Research's transfer to exchanges appears more like "paying the bill" for previous high-leverage layouts, recovering funds and reducing overall leverage exposure by selling ETH, while the specific position structure and liquidation thresholds become spaces for panic imagination due to a lack of transparency.
● Another explanation that cannot be ignored is active profit taking and portfolio rebalancing. After experiencing a previous round of market movements, some institutions may prefer to realize phase gains during periods of amplified volatility, liquidating some high-volatility assets to hedge other risk exposures or adjust asset allocation structures. From this perspective, Trend Research's actions can be seen as: at a time when BTC ETFs are attracting capital and ETH narratives have not fully materialized, moderately reducing ETH weight and reallocating liquidity does not necessarily equate to a denial of Ethereum's long-term prospects, but rather a periodic risk-reward reassessment.
● The effects of these two motivations on market sentiment are starkly different: the story of forced de-leveraging amplifies feelings of fragility—implying that some institutions "went too deep" in the previous market and are now forced to relinquish chips due to market backlash; while the story of active position adjustment is more likely to be understood as "professional funds rationally reducing positions at high levels," which, although it may exert short-term pressure on prices, leans towards a healthier and more stable long-term implication. In reality, these two factors often intertwine, and because the public cannot confirm the specific ratio, sentiment swings violently between optimism and pessimism.
Whale Demonstration Effect: Is Institutional Consensus Loosening?
● On a narrative level, large institutions continuously transferring ETH to exchanges quietly undermines the previous market imagination of "ETH as a core asset for long-term institutional holding." In the past, many investors were accustomed to viewing such funds as "steadfast long-term holders," believing they were more inclined to manage risks through staking, on-chain yields, or derivatives hedging rather than frequently cashing out in the secondary market. However, Trend Research's high-profile and concentrated transfer to exchanges undoubtedly tears a hole in this imagination, prompting a reevaluation of institutions' holding periods and patience levels regarding ETH.
● Such whale behavior may also trigger two distinctly different follow-up paths: on one hand, some institutions and large holders may choose to "follow suit and reduce positions," viewing the whale's transfer to exchanges as a directional indicator, locking in profits or reducing positions in advance to avoid passive losses amid potential selling pressure and volatility; on the other hand, some funds may see this as an opportunity to "buy the dip," believing that Trend's fund adjustments do not change the long-term narrative for ETH, but rather create a more cost-effective entry price in the short term. This divergence and game between bulls and bears further tears apart the market structure and increases the amplitude and frequency of future volatility.
● Under the mainstream narrative of "contraction in risk appetite," ETH's role in this cycle is gradually evolving from a former "narrative star" to a "high-volatility risk asset." Bitcoin, due to its stronger macro benchmarking attributes, is being viewed by institutional funds as a relatively "safe" crypto exposure, while ETH needs to digest multiple uncertainties such as technical routes, ecological competition, and regulatory expectations simultaneously. This means that once overall risk appetite cools, ETH is more likely to become a priority candidate for position reduction, thus bearing greater relative pressure in terms of sentiment and funds, which is also the deeper reason why Trend's behavior is treated with high sensitivity by the market.
The Next Step for Ethereum Under the Shadow of Selling Pressure
Trend Research's continuous large transfers of ETH to Binance, whether its true motive is closer to passive de-leveraging or active profit taking, has formed a substantial shadow of suppression on ETH prices and market sentiment in the short term. The on-chain data showing transfers of 20,000, 30,000, and up to a cumulative 93,588 ETH provides ample material for the "potential selling pressure" narrative, amplifying the sensitivity and defensive mindset of bulls in conjunction with the high-leverage structure and highly tense expectations. Meanwhile, the continuous hundreds of millions in net inflows into BTC spot ETFs, contrasted with the uneven funding situation of ETH ETFs, further reinforces the reality of "BTC as the institutional favorite, ETH needing to prove itself again." In this context, for Ethereum to hedge against the selling pressure expectations brought by whale movements, it can only rely on stronger fundamental progress or new narrative catalysts—whether it be the implementation of scaling solutions, fee structure reforms, or explosive growth at the application layer, all are important chips for rebuilding confidence.
For traders and risk management, the next key observations should focus on three clues: first, whether Trend Research and other large addresses continue to transfer ETH to exchanges, forming a trend of position reduction, or if they start to flow back to cold wallets; second, whether there are clear signs of de-leveraging in the ETH leverage structure, such as a decline in perpetual contract open interest and a return of funding rates to neutral, thereby reducing the risk of liquidation chain reactions; third, whether there is a turning point in the capital flow of ETFs and other compliant products, especially whether the ETH side can shift from "slight outflows + sporadic inflows" to sustained net inflows. Until these variables become clear, the market is likely to maintain a state of high volatility and strong event-driven dynamics, leaving participants to continuously adjust their positions and leverage amid the tug-of-war between sentiment and data.
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