Author: Blockchain Knight

A joint survey by Coinbase and Glassnode shows that a quarter of institutions believe the crypto market has entered a bear market, but the majority still consider Bitcoin to be undervalued and have continued to hold or increase their positions since last October.

This paradox reflects the core positioning of institutions, which are cautious about the short-term situation but maintain a core position in Bitcoin, avoiding small-cap, high-volatility assets, as these assets are prone to rapid depreciation in a de-leveraging environment.

The root of the paradox lies in the difference in dimensions between cycle labels and value judgments. Institutions use "bear market" to describe the short-term cycle phase (tightening liquidity, weak sentiment, defensive positions), while "undervalued" is based on long-term value assessments, encompassing core factors such as Bitcoin adoption rate, scarcity, market structure improvement, and regulatory clarity.

The de-leveraging in October only impacted altcoins, with Bitcoin's market share rising slightly from 58% to 59%, indicating that the sell-off was concentrated in long-tail assets, making Bitcoin the core allocation for risk reduction.

Institutional strategies have shifted towards defense and preservation of value, with perpetual futures system leverage dropping to 3% of the total crypto market cap (excluding stablecoins). The open interest in options has surpassed that of perpetual futures, with skew in put/call options across all maturities being positive.

After the October liquidation, institutions have increasingly relied on options, basis trading, and other tools to manage risk and gain arbitrage profits, avoiding liquidation shocks.

On-chain data also shows that market sentiment has shifted from confidence to anxiety, but has not collapsed. "Bear market" is a short-term judgment, while "undervalued" is a long-term understanding. The bridge between the two lies in institutions being driven by macro liquidity rather than solely relying on the four-year crypto cycle.

While institutions consider the four-year cycle as a behavioral reference, they believe that after controlling macro variables like liquidity and interest rates, the impact of halving is limited; a custom global M2 index has a correlation of 0.9 with Bitcoin's trend and leads by 110 days, becoming a key basis for institutions to assess Bitcoin's long-term value.

Institutions expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice this year by a total of 50 basis points, which is favorable for risk assets and further supports their undervaluation judgment.

To overturn this argument, multiple signals must resonate, including a sharp deterioration in macro liquidity, a reversal in on-chain accumulation indicators, long-term holders selling in a weak market, and continued low institutional demand.

Currently, the divergence among institutions lies in the cycle phase, but there is a consensus on Bitcoin's relative attractiveness; it is not merely about being low-priced, but rather the only recognized durable crypto asset in an unfriendly regulatory environment.

The ultimate judgment of institutions will depend on whether the macro framework can withstand subsequent economic tests, rather than the outcome of debates over short-term cycle labels.

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