Crypto Circle News
February 2 Hot Topics:
1. CryptoQuant CEO: If MSTR does not significantly reduce its holdings, Bitcoin may struggle to experience a historically deep crash.
2. U.S. House Speaker: Confident of securing enough votes to end part of the government shutdown by at least Tuesday.
3. The value of options betting on Bitcoin falling below $75,000 has reached $1.159 billion, equal to the value of $100,000 call options.
4. Sygnum: Ethereum supply is tightening, with 45% of ETH locked.
5. CME "FedWatch" data: The probability of maintaining interest rates in March is 84.7%.
Trading Insights
If you are losing money in contract trading, this article is worth a careful read. Please follow the advice below to ensure profitability:
Insights from an experienced trader:
- Learn to take profits and cut losses:
The market changes quickly; taking profits controls greed, while cutting losses relinquishes sunk costs. Remember, money in the crypto circle is endless, but the money in your account can be lost completely. Ensure that every trade has a reasonable margin for error.
- Avoid frequent trading:
Frequent trading not only makes it difficult to profit from both long and short positions but also increases transaction fees. With high leverage, opening a position can result in a loss of 1-2 points, so ensure that every trade can be profitable.
- Learn to stay out of the market:
Do not open positions when you do not understand the market; avoid blind trading. The market is unpredictable, and sometimes having no position requires more courage than holding one.
- Take it step by step:
Investing is a gradual accumulation process. Do not expect to get rich overnight; instead, gradually increase your returns through small investments and reasonable leverage.
- Never go all in with high leverage:
High leverage carries enormous risks; once the market reverses, you could lose everything. Stay rational and do not take risks due to momentary impulses.
- Combine theory with practice:
This is the most challenging part. Sometimes even experienced traders find it difficult to achieve this completely. Remember, I was once a novice, unaware of the basic rules, opening positions at will. But over time, I understood the potential of the crypto circle. I hope this article can help you avoid detours on your journey in the crypto world.
LIFE IS LIKE
A JOURNEY ▲
Below are the real trades from the Big White Community's trading group this week. Congratulations to those who followed along. If your operations are not going smoothly, you can come and test the waters.
The data is real, and each trade has a screenshot from the time it was sent.
**Search for the public account: *Big White Talks About Coins*
Bilibili and YouTube account: Daquan 777
BTC
Analysis
Over the weekend, BTC has already dropped before the U.S. stock market opened, so another significant drop is unlikely.
Especially since the weekend's sharp decline was partly due to liquidity; after the workweek begins, liquidity will increase, and buying power will also rise. Yesterday, it was calculated that the average purchase price for the spot ETF is around $75,000. Miners with machines priced above $200,000 have almost all stopped working, and even $MSTR's cost is above $76,000. This price should attract interest from many institutions.
Looking back at Bitcoin's data, the turnover rate on Sunday was still quite high for the weekend, indicating that the fluctuations in $BTC's price caused some short-term investors to panic the next day. Next, we will see Monday's reaction, especially since there is a minor shutdown on Monday, but this shutdown's impact is not significant, as the market estimates it will end by Tuesday, so there is no continued negative impact politically.
This drop was triggered by Microsoft, and the cash position of fund managers may be the last straw that breaks the camel's back. If these two factors are correct, the space for further decline in U.S. stocks is actually limited, as there is currently no systemic risk, and the narrative around AI remains strong.
A pullback to around 72128-70447 can be a buying opportunity, with additional purchases near 67500, targeting around 80000.
ETH
Analysis
There are two key time points to watch: one is in the morning Asian time after yesterday's sharp drop, whether to buy the dip or follow the sell-off or remain indifferent. Currently, it seems the choice was indifference, and then we will see the opening time of the U.S. stock market in the evening. Although it has not opened yet, Saturday's drop started at the same time. If Sunday has not ended, it is likely to start from this time, and the reaction is not significant. Next, we will see Monday.
Similarly, for the two time points, on Monday, Asian investors will start working, and one is the opening of U.S. stock futures. Whether it continues to decline is uncertain. Since we cannot determine the ultimate reason for the decline, we can only look at the emotional aspect. If U.S. stocks continue to fall, there are concerns that Bitcoin will continue to follow suit.
A pullback to around 2112-2088 can be a buying opportunity, targeting around 2373-2580.
Disclaimer: The above content is personal opinion and for reference only! It does not constitute specific operational advice and does not bear legal responsibility. Market conditions change rapidly, and the article may have some lag. If you have any questions, feel free to consult.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
