A month ago, the author repeatedly reminded investors: the rise initiated around $80,600 is more likely a technical correction rather than a trend-level rally. Based on the structure, sentiment, and cycle judgments at that time, caution was advised for a potential second downward risk after the rebound.

The current market performance precisely confirms the author's analysis over the past few months and indicates that structural analysis often holds more reference value when sentiment is at its most optimistic.

Core Summary:

• Bitcoin broke the key level of $80,600 last week, establishing a C wave adjustment at the weekly level, consistent with previous assessments of the overall market trend structure.

• Strategy execution (short-term) effectiveness verification: Last week's trading strictly followed the established strategy, completing a short-term operation (1x leverage), successfully achieving a profit of 5.1%.

• Core viewpoint (short-term) verification: At the beginning of last week, the price rebounded to the lower boundary of the ascending channel (around $90,500), showing a significant exhaustion of upward momentum, forming a technical pattern of "failed breakout and pullback." Subsequently, the price quickly fell, continuously breaking through multiple support levels, ultimately dropping below the $80,000 mark.

The following will review the market prediction, strategy execution, and specific trading process in detail.

I. Technical Perspective on Bitcoin's Decline

Figure 1

1. Technical analysis of the continuity and consistency of Bitcoin's previous price structure: (See Figure 1)

• Bitcoin entered a correction phase after reaching a high of $126,200 on October 6, 2025, falling to $80,600 by November 21, lasting 46 days, with a maximum decline of about 36%. Through our self-created trading system, we learned that after the market close on November 24, Bitcoin's weekly price had broken below the bull-bear monitoring model's bull-bear line (see the yellow line in Figure 1), while the momentum quantification model's white momentum line had crossed below the zero axis. The resonance of these two signals led us to judge that Bitcoin had entered a bearish trend in the medium term. Therefore, in the weekly reviews on December 28, 2025 and January 4, 2026, the author pointed out that the rise initiated from the low of $80,600 was a nature of a rebound from an oversold condition.

• After Bitcoin's price rebounded to a high of $97,924 on January 16, 2026, market sentiment briefly turned optimistic, with a general belief that the adjustment had ended and a new upward trend had begun. However, based on the comprehensive judgment of our self-built model, we clearly stated in the January 18 weekly review that the current market still belonged to a "rebound rather than a reversal," and the 21-week moving average would become the dividing line for bulls and bears; we also indicated that the current market was in the B wave rebound phase, with a subsequent C wave decline expected, which would break below the B wave starting point of $80,600.

• In the January 25 weekly review, the author further analyzed the price structure, indicating that the adjustment from the $126,200 high presented an A-B-C three-wave structure. The C wave decline starting from $97,924 had a first target of breaking below $80,600, with the next target looking towards $75,200.

2. Technical structure and key support analysis of the C wave adjustment: (See Figure 1)

• A wave: From $126,200 to $80,600, lasting 46 days, with a decline of 36%.

• B wave: From $80,600 to $97,924, lasting 54 days, with an increase of 21.5%.

• C wave: From $97,924 to present, key support and resonance logic for the downward movement:

• $74,500–$75,200 area (50% Fibonacci retracement of A wave decline and resonance area of the adjustment low in April 2025)

• $69,000–$72,500 area (61.8% golden ratio of A wave decline and resonance area of the previous high, with strong support in this area)

• $64,500–$65,500 area (previous oscillation center)

3. Although Bitcoin's price has fallen to around $75,000, the author believes that it is not advisable to be overly bearish on the market at this time. With the continuous improvement of market liquidity and positive policy expectations, the probability of a deep price decline is reduced (this is also different from the adjustment after the $69,000 high in November 2021), but this may also lead to an extension of the C wave adjustment time, forming a pattern of time for space.

II. Review of Last Week's Market (01.26–02.01)

1. Review of last week's short-term operations: As shown in (Figure 2)

First, let's showcase the results:

We strictly followed the trading signals issued by our self-constructed spread trading model and momentum quantification model, combined with our market trend predictions, to complete a short-term operation, this trade yielded a profit of 10%.

The specific trading details and review are as follows:

Bitcoin 30-minute K-line chart: (Momentum quantification model + Spread trading model)

Figure 2

② Short-term trading review:

• First trade (profit of 5.1%): This operation executed Plan A (shorting after effectively breaking below the lower boundary of the ascending channel) strategy: When the price rebounded to the lower boundary of the ascending channel and showed weakness in upward momentum, the spread model first issued a top warning signal (green dot), then resonated with the momentum model to trigger a top signal. We established a 30% short position at $89,268, and the market subsequently adjusted. When the price fell to the support level of $84,000, the spread model first issued a bottom warning signal (red dot), and then the momentum quantification model and spread trading model resonated again to generate a bottom signal. Based on this, we closed all positions at $84,525, achieving a successful profit.

2. Review of last week's market predictions and operational strategies:

① Last week's core viewpoint: Focus on the effective confirmation after breaking below the lower boundary of the ascending channel. If effectively broken, the price will accelerate its adjustment, with the first target around $84,000.

② Review of key points:

Resistance levels are seen in the $88,500–$91,200 area; support levels are at $84,000, with important support levels in the $80,000–$80,600 area.

③ Review of operational strategies:

• Medium-term strategy: If the price rebounds and confirms the effective break below the lower boundary of the ascending channel, we will establish a 60% short position around $89,000 as per the plan.

• Short-term strategy: Since the price effectively broke below the lower boundary of the ascending channel, we chose to execute Plan A:

• Opening position: After the effective break and in conjunction with the model's top signal, a 30% short position can be established.

• Risk control: The initial stop loss for the short position is set about 1.5% above the cost price (i.e., 1.015 * cost price).

• Closing position: When the price falls near important support levels and in conjunction with model signals, positions can be gradually closed for profit-taking.

III. Bitcoin Weekly and Daily Resonance Bearish: Has the Bottom Been Reached?

Combining market operations, the author conducts an in-depth analysis of Bitcoin's price structure based on the self-constructed trading system, from multiple models and dimensions.

1. As shown in (Figure 3), from the weekly chart analysis:

Bitcoin weekly K-line chart: (Momentum quantification model + Sentiment quantification model)

Figure 3

• Momentum quantification model: Technical indicators show that short-selling momentum continued to be released last week, with both momentum lines moving downward simultaneously, and the negative energy bars expanding, indicating an accelerated adjustment state.

The momentum quantification model indicates: Price decline index: High

• Sentiment quantification model: The blue sentiment line value is 41, with an intensity of zero; the yellow sentiment line value is 13 (close to the bottom area), with an intensity of zero, and the peak value is 0.

The sentiment quantification model indicates: Price pressure and support index: Neutral

• Digital monitoring model: No digital signals (top or bottom) have appeared, indicating accelerated decline.

The digital monitoring model indicates: No bottom signal has appeared; the weekly K-line closed with a large bearish candle, with a decline of about 11.19%.

The above data indicates: Bitcoin is in a weekly bearish trend, caution against the risk of oscillating declines.

2. As shown in (Figure 4), from the daily chart analysis:

Bitcoin daily K-line chart: (Momentum quantification model + Sentiment quantification model)

Figure 4

• Momentum quantification model: Last week presented an overall pattern of "confirmation of the pullback to the lower boundary of the channel - accelerated decline." After the market close on Sunday, both momentum lines crossed below the zero axis, and the negative energy bars gradually expanded.

The momentum quantification model indicates: The daily level has entered a bearish market, short-selling momentum is accelerating.

• Sentiment quantification model: After the market close last Sunday, the blue sentiment line value is 6, with an intensity of 2, marking the first appearance of a bottom warning signal (red dot); the yellow sentiment line value is 12, with an intensity of zero.

The sentiment quantification model indicates: Pressure and support index: Weak support strength

The above data suggests: It may not have reached the bottom yet!

IV. Market Prediction for This Week (02.02–02.08)

1. Core viewpoint for this week: This week is likely to maintain a range-bound oscillation pattern. Pay attention to the resistance in the $80,000–$80,600 area and the support in the $74,500–$75,200 area.

2. Key resistance levels:

• First resistance area: $80,000–$80,600 (previous low area)

• Second resistance area: Around $84,000 (previous lower edge of the range)

• Important resistance area: $86,000–$86,500 (previous area of concentrated trading)

3. Key support levels:

• First support level: $74,500–$75,200 (last April's low area)

• Important support level: $69,000–$72,500 (upper edge of the previous adjustment center)

V. How to operate this week: (02.02–02.08)

1. Medium-term strategy: Maintain a 60% short position. If the price rebounds and stabilizes above the $86,000–$86,500 area, reduce the position to 40%.

2. Short-term strategy: Use a 30% position, set stop-loss points, and look for "spread" opportunities based on support and resistance levels. (Using 30 minutes as the operating cycle).

3. In operations, to dynamically respond to market changes and combine with real-time model signals, we propose two short-term operational plans, A/B:

• Plan A: If the price rebounds to the $80,000–$80,600 area and confirms an effective break below: (Short when encountering resistance)

• Opening position: When the retest confirms pressure and combines with the model's top signal, a 30% short position can be established.

• Risk control: The initial stop loss for the short position is set about 1.5% above the cost price (i.e., 1.015 * cost price).

• Closing position: When the price falls near important support levels and combines with model signals, positions can be gradually closed for profit-taking.

• Plan B: If the price effectively breaks below the $74,500–$75,200 area: (Chase the short after breaking the support)

• Opening position: When the support level is effectively broken and combines with the model's resonance signal, a 30% short position can be established.

• Risk control: The initial stop loss for the short position is set about 1.5% above the cost price (i.e., 1.015 * cost price).

• Closing position: When the price falls to the support level and combines with model signals, positions can be gradually closed for profit-taking.

VI. Special reminders:

1. When opening a position: Immediately set the initial stop-loss level.

2. When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss to the opening cost price (break-even point) to ensure capital safety.

3. When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop-loss to the position of 1% profit.

4. Continuous tracking: After that, for every additional 1% profit, move the stop-loss up by 1% to dynamically protect and lock in profits.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。