Written by: Sanqing, Foresight News
On January 30, U.S. President Trump announced in the evening on TRUTH that he would nominate Kevin Warsh as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. He praised Kevin Warsh for his outstanding background across politics, business, and academia, predicting that he would become the greatest Federal Reserve Chairman in history. This news marks the conclusion of a months-long "draft" that has captivated global financial markets.
Source: TRUTH
From "Four Contenders" to "One Dominant Figure"
The competition for the Federal Reserve Chair has been dramatic. Over the past few months, Trump's interview list has changed multiple times, ultimately narrowing down to four candidates with distinct styles.
Kevin Hassett: The Loyal "Withdrawer"
As Trump's long-time advisor and current Director of the National Economic Council (NEC), Hassett was the frontrunner for this position. He possesses the quality that Trump values most—loyalty. However, as the selection process progressed, Trump hinted multiple times that he preferred Hassett to "stay in the White House" to continue assisting with economic policy, causing his odds of winning to plummet from an initial 50%+ to ultimately becoming a "runner-up" in this race.
Christopher Waller: The "Safe Bet" Within the System
Current Federal Reserve Governor Waller is a typical technocrat; he understands the internal workings of the Federal Reserve and does not have a strained relationship with Trump like Powell does. In mid-December, Waller's odds briefly surged due to a "productive" interview with Trump. He is seen as a "safe option" on Wall Street, but under Trump's vision for "disruptive change," Waller appears too moderate and traditional.
Rick Rieder: The Fleeting "Dark Horse"
Just two weeks ago, Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock, suddenly emerged as a contender. With BlackRock's dominance in the financial sector and his advocacy for a "lower interest rate" policy (which aligns with Trump's preferences), Rieder's odds soared to over 40%, making him the leading candidate at that time. However, as a representative of a "globalist" financial institution, he struggled to gain the full trust of Trump's MAGA base, ultimately falling short at the finish line.
Kevin Warsh: The "Hawkish Reformer" Who Laughs Last
Warsh has consistently been on the shortlist of core candidates, but unlike the previous contenders, he did not have a clear "dominant" moment until the very end. As a former Federal Reserve Governor, he has the qualifications and a Wall Street background (having worked at Morgan Stanley and being a partner of legendary investor Druckenmiller). More importantly, he possesses the "Hollywood-style" image favored by Trump—young, wealthy, and well-groomed.
Kevin Warsh: Wall Street Darling, Federal Reserve Rebel, and "Old Friend" of the Crypto World
Warsh is far from a traditional central banker. As early as 2006, at just 35 years old, he became the youngest governor in Federal Reserve history. He is known for his hawkish stance, long criticizing the Fed's money printing (QE) and excessive market support (Fed Put).
One of Warsh's most famous views is: "Inflation is not weather; it is climate, a choice made by government and central banks." He advocates for the Federal Reserve to be more independent and not to sacrifice long-term monetary credibility for short-term market fluctuations. This means that if he takes office, the market may face a more aggressive balance sheet reduction (QT) and no longer receive liquidity support on demand.
However, compared to Powell's caution, Warsh has a deeper understanding and involvement in blockchain technology:
Warsh has explicitly opposed the Federal Reserve issuing a "retail CBDC" for the public, arguing that it would lead to excessive government surveillance of personal privacy, even calling it "dangerous." Instead, he supports using blockchain technology to reform the interbank settlement system (wholesale CBDC) to improve the efficiency of dollar payments.
Although Warsh has criticized Bitcoin for being "too volatile and unsuitable as a unit of account," he is not a blind opponent. In fact, he was an early investor in the algorithmic stablecoin project Basis and has served as an advisor to the crypto index fund management company Bitwise. This indicates that he not only understands crypto technology but has also been financially involved for years.
Warsh tends to include stablecoins within the regulatory framework of "Narrow Banks," requiring issuers to hold 100% cash or short-term Treasury reserves. While regulation may tighten, this is also seen as an important step toward the compliance and institutionalization of stablecoins.
"If the president wants a weak person, I won't get this job." This is a famous quote from Warsh during his interview. He may not be the "obedient" chairman Trump desires, but he is undoubtedly the one who can bring about "dramatic change."
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