First Front: Short-term Chart (15 minutes) — The Rebound Has Fizzled Out
It seems calm here, but danger lurks beneath the surface. The price is entangled with several short-term moving averages, but the real alarm comes from MACD: it has just completed a death cross not far above the zero axis, and the red energy bars are starting to expand. This is not a correction; it is a signal that short-term bullish momentum has officially declared exhaustion. The market is hesitating here, but the balance has begun to tilt towards the bears.
Second Front: Medium-term Chart (1H & 4H) — A Carefully Designed "Bull Trap"?
The 1-hour chart looks "good": MACD golden cross, moving averages trending upwards, a perfect small-scale rebound. But please shift your focus to the 4-hour chart — this is where the truth lies.
On the 4-hour chart, all important moving averages (especially MA20 at $86,389) are hanging overhead, like an insurmountable steel defense line. The current rebound doesn't even have the strength to touch it. The 4-hour MACD is merely the bears "catching their breath" (energy bars contracting), but the dual lines remain in deep water. The conclusion is harsh: this is just a standard "rebound in a downtrend," possibly aimed at digesting selling pressure or attracting the last bottom-fishing orders.
Third Front: Long-term Chart (Daily) — The Main Trend Has Written Its Verdict
Forget all the short-term noise and take a look at the daily chart: a waterfall decline, with prices firmly pressed down by all important moving averages, the bearish arrangement is textbook clear. The daily MACD has formed a death cross deep below the zero axis, with long and strong green energy bars, this is a trend-level crushing force, with no room for ambiguity. RSI oversold? In the face of a trend, oversold can persist to the point of making you question life.
Macroeconomic Battlefield: Traditional Safe-Haven Assets Have "Surrendered," Can BTC Survive Alone?
The current market is trading on a single theme: fear of a "more hawkish" Federal Reserve. The collapse of gold and silver has already proven that, in such panic, even the oldest safe havens can be bloodied. When "safe assets" are no longer safe, Bitcoin, as the vanguard of digital risk assets, faces not a correction, but a comprehensive tightening of liquidity.
Yes, some institutions are "buying the dip," which is a long-term story. But in the short term, the market only listens to the sounds of macro cannons. Miners' profits are at a new low, global economic data is weak… every single thing is adding weight to this fragile market.
Trader's Action Manual
1. Core Script (Probability 70%): "Short on Rallies" is the Only Main Line
Ideal Short Entry Zone: $84,500 - $85,000 (1-hour rebound resistance), and $86,000 - $86,500 (4-hour lifeline MA20). Wait for the price to reach these areas and show signs of "not being able to rise" (such as a long upper shadow on a spike).
Key Battlefield: $82,000 - $80,000 range. This is the last line of defense for the bulls. Once a volume breakdown occurs here, the market will enter a new, deeper panic phase.
2. Backup Script (Probability 30%): Extremely Weak Rebound
- If the price unexpectedly stabilizes above $84,500 and pushes up, it can only be defined as "a more complex downtrend continuation." Never chase highs, the 4-hour MA20 at $86,389 is the ultimate test and a stronger short position.
3. Absolute Taboo
- Before the daily trend clearly reverses, any "bottom-fishing" behavior is a counter-trend gamble. The real bottom is not guessed; it is walked out by the market with funds and structure.
Qinglan Crypto Class is now in session! BTC Four Cycles + News Dual Perspective, guiding you to step in sync with the crypto rhythm. More quantitative breakdowns on the impact of real-time news on market sentiment have been updated in my Qinglan Crypto Class, www.qinglan.org
Finally, Sister Qinglan offers everyone one last piece of advice:
The market is speaking in the clearest language: the trend is downward. The trader's task is not to be a hero, but to be a calm observer and a disciplined executor. Protect your capital, go with the trend, and wait for the market to clearly indicate the next step.
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