What to know : HSBC suggested Coinbase may prefer a compromise bill over no legislation at all. With Ripple and Coinbase funding the Fairshake PAC, the report highlighted that significant capital is being deployed to ensure Congressional candidates pass clear statutory rules. The bank envisions a potential path where the Senate Agriculture Committee’s bill passes first, granting the CFTC authority over spot commodities even if SEC-related issues remain unresolved.
Coinbase's (COIN) decision to end support for U.S. market structure legislation won't derail the process, investment bank HSBC said, suggesting that while CEO Brian Armstrong prefers no bill over a bad bill, he would probably accept a sensible compromise.
The report maintained that a legislative floor is essential to providing the stability required for institutional entry.
"Coinbase withdrawal of support is not a death-knell for U.S. market structure legislation," analysts Daragh Maher and Nishu Singla said in the Tuesday report.
At its core, the proposed law is a high-stakes attempt to end the regulation-by-enforcement era that has defined the U.S. crypto landscape for years. By drawing a clear line between the Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) authority over securities and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) oversight of commodities, the bill aims to provide the legal rules that institutional investors, from hedge funds to corporate treasuries, require before entering the market at scale.
Earlier this month, Armstrong said Coinbase reversed its support for the bill to protect consumers and prevent the stifling of market competition. The Senate Agriculture Committee delayed its crypto market structure markup to Thursday, citing travel disruptions following a major weekend winter storm.
The analysts pointed to a divide in sentiment that favors action: Ripple’s leadership continues to argue that "clarity is always better than chaos." This is bolstered by the massive financial influence of the Fairshake PAC.
Furthermore, the analysts noted that advisors believe the current draft, while imperfect, might be more favorable than future iterations under different political administrations.
Even if a resolution isn't reached, the analysts expect an incremental victory via the Agriculture Committee’s bill, which would enhance market integrity through CFTC oversight.
The bank warned against viewing industry pushback as a dead end, citing the GENIUS Act’s survival through similar legislative hurdles.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan argued that market structure legislation is vital to codifying the current pro-crypto environment into law. Without it, he warned, the industry remains exposed to shifting administrative priorities, a stance that aligns with HSBC’s outlook.
Read more: Crypto faces fork in the road as Clarity Act support wavers, Bitwise says
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