On January 28, 2026, at 8:00 AM UTC+8, a whale address marked as "smart money profiting $98.18 million from ETH swings" made a significant transaction by depositing and selling 10,000 stETH to the professional market maker Wintermute, with a single transaction amounting to approximately $30.12 million, attracting considerable attention on-chain. This reduction not only brought about a realized profit of about $1.039 million for the address but also pushed its cumulative ETH swing profits close to $99.22 million, while still holding a substantial position of 60,013 ETH. In the context of profits nearing $100 million, the decision to cash out a large amount without fully exiting raises new questions regarding the liquidity pressure on stETH/ETH, the market maker's buffering capacity, and market sentiment interpretation: is this a rational profit-locking reduction, or the beginning of a potential selling pressure cycle?
Selling 10,000 stETH: The Rhythm of Smart Money's First Large Reduction
● Timeline and Action Path: According to on-chain data and market tracking, this address began accumulating ETH-related positions on January 12 and maintained its holdings and swing operations thereafter. The transaction on January 28 marked the first true "large reduction" by depositing 10,000 stETH to Wintermute. Unlike fragmented selling, this adjustment was completed through a single large transaction path, timed when ETH prices were relatively high, reflecting a clear sense of rhythm control and risk management awareness.
● Fund Flow Breakdown: On-chain data shows that the 10,000 stETH was transferred in one go to a Wintermute related address, with an estimated total value of about $30.12 million, in exchange for approximately 30.03 million USDC. This indicates that the whale chose to efficiently convert its stETH position into stable-valued assets through the market maker channel, replacing direct dumping on the public order book with point-to-point bulk matching, switching funds from "staking certificate assets" to "cash ammunition," allowing for greater maneuverability in subsequent strategies.
● Profitability Profile: From this operation, the single reduction alone generated approximately $1.039 million in realized profits, while the cumulative ETH profits from its swing operations since the initial accumulation have approached $99.22 million. This figure, combined with the rhythm of the first large reduction, showcases a high win rate and efficient capital operation path: initially accumulating positions at an average price of about $2,907/ETH, then strategically cashing out in phases during the price uptrend, with each reduction contributing million-dollar-level profits, further reinforcing its "smart money" label.
● Swing Cashing Out Rather Than Full Exit: It is important to emphasize that only a portion of the stETH position was sold; after completing this large transaction, the whale address still holds 60,013 ETH, showing no signs of a complete liquidation or asset flight. This "locking in phase profits + retaining a large amount of chips" model resembles a typical swing cashing out strategy rather than a full retreat due to a loss of confidence in the fundamentals of ETH or stETH, indicating that funds still choose to maintain a high position in the market for subsequent trends.
Average Cost of $2,907: The Whale Account's Floating Profit Buffer
● Cost and Position Structure: Research briefs indicate that the overall average cost of ETH positions for this address is about $2,907/ETH, completed gradually during mid-January when prices had not fully surged. The resulting position structure involved accumulating chips densely at relatively low levels, then implementing strategic reductions during the subsequent uptrend, forming a clear "buy low, sell high" trajectory, providing ample safety cushion and floating profit buffer for each partial cashing out.
● Remaining Position and Floating Profit Status: After selling the 10,000 stETH, the address still holds 60,013 ETH, with an estimated market value of about $72.43 million, and is significantly in a floating profit state. This means that even if prices experience some degree of correction later, this portion of the holdings still has considerable profit potential and will not immediately fall into a passive state due to a single fluctuation. The scale of the remaining chips also ensures that this address retains significant influence and operational flexibility in future market conditions.
● Post-Reduction Position Ratio and Operational Space: With cumulative profits from swings nearing $99.22 million, the whale chose to cash out only a portion of those profits while retaining a much larger spot position of ETH than the reduction scale. The reduction action, on one hand, lowered the overall drawdown risk of the account, while on the other hand, allowed for a more relaxed choice to continue holding, increase positions, or sell in batches. In this "high profit + high position" structure, any further adjustment actions by this address could significantly guide market expectations and sentiment.
● High-Position Cashing Out and Risk-Reward Trade-off: Strategically, selling part of the position when ETH prices are at relatively high levels to convert paper profits into realized gains is a typical risk-reward rebalancing operation. On one hand, locking in a single $1.039 million level adds concrete returns to the overall performance; on the other hand, retaining over 60,000 ETH chips preserves the possibility of continuing to share in subsequent upside benefits. This approach strikes a balance between controlling downside risk and participating in upside potential, reflecting mature capital's comprehensive consideration of volatility cycles and position management.
Market Maker Takeover: Wintermute's Buffer Role on Chain
● Choosing Market Maker Instead of Direct Dumping: The whale could have directly placed an order for 10,000 stETH on a decentralized exchange or sold it through a centralized exchange, but it chose to concentrate the chips by depositing them to Wintermute, reflecting a deliberate control over market impact. A sell order of approximately $30.12 million, if directly dumped onto the public order book, would inevitably consume a large amount of buy order depth in a short time, while using a market maker allows for gradual digestion of this batch of chips over a longer time frame and through more dispersed channels.
● Market Maker's Liquidity Intermediary Function: As a professional market-making institution, Wintermute typically possesses extensive liquidity access across multiple chains and exchanges, enabling hedging and splitting between on-chain and off-chain markets. After taking over the 10,000 stETH, it can leverage the depth of major exchanges, OTC channels, and DeFi pools to sell in a dispersed manner or manage risks through hedging tools. This way, the selling pressure that could have concentrated on a single chain's order book is "split" into liquidity releases across multiple markets and time periods, thereby reducing the likelihood of sharp price fluctuations at a single point.
● Mechanism for Weakening Price Impact of Bulk Transactions: Through market maker-facilitated bulk transactions, large holdings are effectively turned over behind the scenes before price fluctuations are amplified "on stage." The whale received approximately 30.03 million USDC, while the market maker took over the stETH position and has the capability to redistribute it using its inventory, hedging positions, and cross-market arbitrage strategies. For the public market, what is often seen is a relatively smooth selling pressure over the following period, rather than the instantaneous depth being drained due to a single dump, making it more likely for prices to exhibit controllable fluctuations rather than flash crashes.
● Short-Term Liquidity Buffer Boundaries: Currently, on-chain data does not disclose how Wintermute will handle this batch of stETH, and we cannot determine its specific selling rhythm or hedging methods. However, it can be confirmed that it has clearly acted as a "liquidity buffer" in the short term. The selling pressure did not directly fall on the public market but was first absorbed by the market maker and then gradually released according to its own strategy. For observers, it is important to realize that this does not mean the selling pressure has disappeared; rather, its time distribution and market impact have been reconfigured, altering the path and rhythm of volatility.
Selling Pressure and Liquidity: The Real Magnitude of 10,000 stETH
● Absolute Scale and Relative Weight of the Market: In absolute terms, 10,000 stETH corresponds to about $30.12 million, which is a typical "whale-level" transaction at the individual address level. However, in terms of the total circulation scale of the entire stETH and ETH market, this quantity is far from sufficient to independently rewrite the medium to long-term supply-demand structure, appearing more like a short-term addition of selling pressure. What truly determines price trends remains the continuous flow of funds and the macro environment, rather than a single isolated large turnover.
● Market Maker's Dispersed Digestion and Order Book Depth: If this stETH were to directly impact the order book of a mainstream trading pair, the local depth could be instantly consumed, triggering a chain reaction of stop-losses and slippage expansion. However, now, through Wintermute's bulk matching, the impact is diluted across a broader liquidity network: some selling pressure is directed to deeper CEX order books, while some may enter DeFi pools or be absorbed through hedging positions, making the price curve of a single market smoother. This "depth redistribution" mechanism helps avoid irrational volatility caused by a single transaction.
● Cashing Out Signal or Retreat Signal: Considering that this address still holds 60,013 ETH, this action is more easily interpreted as a phase of profit cashing out rather than a systemic retreat. If it had completely lost confidence in ETH or stETH, a more common pattern would be continuous reductions, frequent cross-chain transfers, or capital exit, none of which have been observed on-chain so far. For market sentiment, this appears more like a calm action of "smart money locking in part of the gains" rather than a proactive signal to induce panic.
● Distinction Between Single Large Transaction and Continuous Outflow: For trend judgment, it is essential to deliberately distinguish between "single large transactions" and "continuous capital outflows." The former often represents structural adjustments of individual accounts, leading to more short-term volatility and emotional disturbances; the latter indicates a broader consensus and run on funds in the same direction. Currently, we see a one-time transfer and cashing out of 10,000 stETH, rather than large outflows over multiple days, thus its reference significance lies more in position management and profit cashing out logic, rather than directly indicating a trend reversal.
Swing Trading Sample: Smart Money and Market Rhythm
● Swing Rhythm and Corresponding Price Range: Starting from January 12, this address completed concentrated accumulation before ETH prices fully broke out, with an average cost of about $2,907/ETH, and maintained a high position during the price oscillation uptrend. The reduction on January 28 was essentially at a statistically "relative high" level, achieving a complete swing cycle from low accumulation to high cashing out. Its operational rhythm is highly synchronized with market rhythm, reflecting a keen grasp of trend initiation and phase tops.
● Cycle Effectiveness of Buy Low, Sell High Strategy: Comparing the average cost with the current valuation range, it is evident that this "buy low, sell high" combination has been extremely effective in this cycle—at a cost of about $2,907, facing significantly elevated spot prices, even a partial reduction can achieve million-dollar-level single profits, while bringing overall swing profits close to $99.22 million. This path of first seizing chips, then patiently holding, and strategically cashing out after volatility amplifies provides a reference model for capital management in high-volatility assets.
● Demonstration Effect and Pro-Cyclical Amplification: Once these high-win-rate swing accounts attract widespread market attention, their on-chain behaviors are often labeled as "smart money signals." Other funds may follow in when they buy and take profits when they reduce positions, creating pro-cyclical price feedback. This imitation effect further amplifies the volatility in trending markets, making rises sharper and falls more severe, while also increasing the market's sensitivity and reliance on the actions of a few large funds.
● The Value and Limitations of Tracking Smart Money: On-chain transparency makes it possible to track the behaviors of such whales, but it can also easily lead investors to simply "copy homework." It is important to note that smart money has stronger capital scale, information acquisition, and risk tolerance, and each of their entries and exits may involve more complex hedging and portfolio configurations. Blindly following a buy or sell action can easily cause one to miss the earlier rhythm that they have already established, or even act as a counterparty when they realize profits. The value of data tracking lies in understanding position management logic and rhythm, rather than mechanically replicating trading paths.
What the Market Should Look for After Smart Money Realizes Profits
● Comprehensive Signals of Scale, Profit, and Remaining Positions: This whale realized a profit of $1.039 million from selling 10,000 stETH to Wintermute, with a transaction value of about $30.12 million, bringing its total ETH swing profits close to $99.22 million. However, at the same time, this address still retains 60,013 ETH, valued at approximately $72.43 million, indicating that this "partial cashing out + large continued holding" combination does not signal a complete bearish outlook, but rather a rhythmic locking in of phase profits and optimization of risk exposure.
● Price Impact Mitigation Under Market Maker Intervention: Since this reduction was facilitated through Wintermute in a bulk manner rather than being directly dumped onto the public market, the short-term price impact on stETH and ETH has been significantly weakened. The selling pressure was first absorbed by the market maker and then gradually released through its multi-market liquidity network, making the market appear smoother on the surface and avoiding the instantaneous panic that could arise from a single large sell order. This structural arrangement reminds us to pay attention to the differences between on-chain bulk paths and public market transactions when interpreting price fluctuations.
● Three Key Focus Areas for Future Observation: Moving forward, the market should focus on three dimensions of data: first, whether this address will continue to adjust its positions in the coming days, including the rhythm of additional reductions or re-accumulations; second, changes in the discount/premium of stETH relative to ETH, and whether this sale and potential subsequent liquidity releases will lead to structural shifts; third, broader capital flows, especially the net inflows and outflows of other large addresses in stETH/ETH assets, to determine whether this is just an isolated event or part of a larger capital trend.
● Data and Rhythm Over Emotional Interpretation: In the face of a single large transaction of 10,000 stETH, market sentiment can easily swing between "incoming selling pressure" and "smart money escaping the top." However, based on the current visible data, this appears more like a planned swing profit realization rather than a systemic retreat. For investors, rather than amplifying emotions, it is better to continuously track on-chain data, transaction paths, and timing rhythms, using whale behaviors as a window to understand market structure and liquidity changes, rather than as simple triggers for panic or greed.
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