What to know : A lack of market structure legislation keeps a regulatory risk premium in U.S. crypto, limiting valuation expansion, said Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer. Bitcoin and infrastructure are best positioned; exchanges, DeFi and altcoins are expected to lag. Palmer still sees passage as more likely than not, though timing risk is rising.
If Congress fails to pass market structure legislation this year, the U.S. crypto market would not revert to the enforcement-heavy environment of 2022 and 2023, but it would remain structurally constrained at a moment when global adoption and institutional interest are accelerating, Wall Street broker Benchmark said.
"The absence of legislation would cause a structural risk premium to persist across much of the digital asset ecosystem," wrote analyst Mark Palmer in the Monday report, adding that this would cap valuation expansion for U.S.-exposed platforms.
Palmer said failure to pass legislation would delay, not derail, crypto’s maturation, leaving the U.S. market operating below its potential as investors favor bitcoin-centric exposure, strong balance sheets and cash-flowing infrastructure over regulatory-sensitive segments such as exchanges, decentralized finance (DeFi) and altcoins.
The bill is intended to define U.S. crypto market structure by defining how digital assets might be classified as commodities or securities and clarifying Securities and Exchange (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversight. While House passage last year shifted the debate toward details like stablecoin yield and DeFi interfaces, Senate negotiations have been slower and more contentious, raising the risk that final approval slips into next year.
Palmer said markets are already pricing in that timing risk. Without a market structure bill, exchanges would face continued listing uncertainty, higher compliance costs and limits on expanding into higher-margin products, while stablecoin monetization could be delayed by unresolved rules around yield and distribution.
Bitcoin and bitcoin-focused treasury companies would be comparatively insulated, Palmer said, given the crypto's established commodity status, with miners and energy-backed infrastructure also less exposed.
DeFi and smart-contract platforms remain the most vulnerable, as regulatory ambiguity continues to constrain U.S. participation, while custody and compliance providers would hold relatively defensive positions, the report added.
Despite delays, Palmer still views passage of a crypto market structure bill as more likely than not, even if diluted, arguing that any version of the legislation would reduce regulatory risk and unlock broader institutional participation.
Read more: Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong says company opposed crypto bill to protect consumers
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