During this time online, I have felt a complex atmosphere that I have never experienced since participating in the crypto ecosystem:
Last year, there were often people "shouting" online: Is there going to be a season of copycats next?
Now, such voices are almost unheard of online.
In the past, when the market was tense, there were posts discussing what new ecosystems might emerge in the crypto space.
Now, aside from a few areas that have been established for several years and are so familiar to everyone (such as prediction markets, RWA, and stablecoins), there are very few posts exploring new possibilities.
Even some of the previously active KOLs (Key Opinion Leaders) are rarely seen posting or making calls now.
In addition, there is another rather unique atmosphere and emotion:
In the past, when the crypto ecosystem was not performing well, other investment fields (like stocks) were also not doing well, so while people felt the pain of the crypto market, they did not find this suffering unusual.
However, since the second half of last year, in the context of a sluggish crypto market, other fields that people usually overlook or pay little attention to have suddenly exploded:
For example, precious metals led by silver and gold have continuously reached historical highs; even the A-shares, which were previously scorned, have become popular, and discussions about sectors and rotations have begun.
This contrast has created a significant psychological gap for many participants in the crypto ecosystem: we came to this ecosystem because we couldn't make money in those traditional fields; now, after we arrived, those "scraps" have surprisingly turned into "internet celebrities."
Not only have the emotions of general participants changed, but even institutional participants are experiencing a shift in sentiment:
Recently, the global equity strategy head at Jefferies removed 10% of Bitcoin allocation from their portfolio, citing that the development of quantum computing could threaten Bitcoin's security.
There have been countless articles in the industry explaining the threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin's security, and I have shared in previous articles that this so-called "threat" is not something to worry about at all.
Generally speaking, cautious and rigorous financial institutions would not wait until they have 10% of Bitcoin in their portfolio to consider it a security threat before making a "removal" decision. Even if they were genuinely concerned about this issue, they should have been worried about it long before preparing to allocate, and if they were truly concerned, they should not have allocated Bitcoin in the first place.
Therefore, I believe the reason this institution made this decision now is likely more related to market factors rather than a genuine belief that Bitcoin's security is at risk.
As a result, in the current investment landscape, the crypto ecosystem seems to be experiencing a sense of "solitude" that has never been felt before.
This seems to be the first time in the history of the crypto ecosystem's development.
From the perspective of the ecosystem's own development, this is actually normal.
It indicates that relying solely on "narratives" can no longer attract funds and talent into this ecosystem. The funds and talent here refer not only to long-term investment capital and those truly willing to build but also to short-term speculative funds and traders purely chasing speculation.
The only things that can attract funds and talent back into the ecosystem are newer applications and more disruptive business models, rather than the same old discussions.
I have previously shared the widespread use of stablecoin applications in other countries and among the public. Although this is very meaningful, practical, and realistic, such applications are still far from enough; this ecosystem needs more, newer, and more disruptive applications.
On the other hand, I still believe that this temporary "silence" and "calm" is the foundation for the next explosion.
This is a necessary path for the development of every ecosystem.
Take the currently hot precious metals, for example; they sat on the sidelines for nearly 10 years before attracting attention this time. If someone had told those lonely holders of these precious metals over the past decade that gold, silver, platinum, rhodium, and palladium would reach astonishing historical highs in the future, I believe most of those holders would have taken such words as jokes and comfort.
So when people envy the returns of investors in the current market, they should not forget that those investors may have sat on the sidelines for 10 years.
This reasoning can also be applied to participants in our crypto ecosystem.
If you believe that the future of this market is bright, then all this "solitude" and "indifference" will ultimately become catalysts for future market explosions and fuel for the future market surge.
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