Written by: EeeVee
Originally expected to soon reach $100,000, Bitcoin suddenly returned to the $80,000 range.
But what’s even more frustrating for the crypto community is that outside the crypto world, the scenery is quite beautiful. Gold and silver are hitting new highs, with gold breaking $5,000, the U.S. Russell 2000 index outperforming the S&P 500 for 11 consecutive days, and the A-share Sci-Tech Innovation 50 index rising over 15% in a single month.
The "ABC Investment Method" (Anything But Crypto) continues to resonate in reality. Why is everything except the crypto market rising? Why has the crypto market, after the arrival of Trump, been in a continuous "downward" trend?
From macro to micro, from external to internal, the market seems to be brewing a larger storm: the White House is facing another shutdown, Japan is continuing monetary tightening, the uncertainty surrounding Trump and his policies, and the internal capital flight and meme vampirism in the crypto market.
The "Three Mountains" of Macro
The White House is Facing Another "Shutdown"
The U.S. government is once again on the brink of a shutdown. Following another incident in Minnesota where federal law enforcement officers shot and killed someone, Democratic senators collectively opposed a funding proposal that included funding for the Department of Homeland Security, causing the risk of a shutdown on Polymarket to soar to 80% by January 30.
A government shutdown means a freeze on fiscal spending, with hundreds of billions locked in the Treasury General Account (TGA) and unable to flow into the market. The TGA becomes a financial black hole that only absorbs funds, draining liquidity from the market. The shutdown in October 2025 withdrew over $200 billion from the market in just 20 days, comparable to multiple rounds of interest rate hikes.
As the banking system's reserves are heavily siphoned off by the TGA, the cost of capital in the market rises. The crypto market, which is always the most sensitive to liquidity, feels the chill first.
Looking back at the 43-day shutdown in October 2025, Bitcoin's performance was quite dramatic:
• Early Shutdown (October 1-10): Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,500 on October 6. The market generally believed that the government shutdown would highlight the value of decentralized currency.
• Mid Shutdown (October 11-November 4): The duration of the shutdown exceeded expectations, and during the policy vacuum when everyone thought the shoe would drop, the crypto market encountered the 1011 liquidity black swan event, plummeting to $102,000, a drop of over 20% from the peak.
• Late Shutdown (November 5-12): The price fluctuated around $110,000 and did not immediately rebound as the shutdown was about to end.
Once bitten, twice shy; this time the market's reaction to the government shutdown was more direct and swift. Within 24 hours of the shutdown risk soaring, Bitcoin fell from $92,000 to below $88,000. The market seems to have learned from the last lesson, no longer viewing a government shutdown as a positive but rather pricing it as a liquidity negative.
Japan's "Butterfly Effect"
The final straw came from Tokyo. On January 19-20, 2026, the yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds soared to 2.330%, reaching a 27-year high.
The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike and expectations of fiscal expansion drove bond yields to their highest level since 1999.
This is due to a reversal in the yen carry trade. In the past, investors borrowed low-interest yen and exchanged it for dollars to invest in high-yield assets (like U.S. Treasuries and Bitcoin).
But now, the Bank of Japan has begun to raise interest rates (in December 2025 to 0.75%), and the new Prime Minister, Sanna Marin, announced an end to fiscal tightening, planning large-scale investments and tax cuts. This has raised serious concerns about Japan's fiscal situation, leading to a sell-off of government bonds and soaring yields.
More importantly, the fundamentals of the Japanese economy are supporting this high-interest rate trend as a long-term phenomenon. Data from Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs shows that in November 2025, the unemployment rate remained stable at 2.6%, maintaining a "full employment" status for 59 consecutive months. The strength of the labor market gives the Bank of Japan the confidence to continue raising interest rates. This Friday (January 31), Japan will announce the unemployment rate for December, with the market generally expecting it to remain low, further reinforcing rate hike expectations.
The surge in Japanese bond yields has raised global borrowing costs and further compressed the interest rate differential in yen carry trades. Carry traders are forced to close their positions, selling dollar assets to buy back yen, leading to a tightening of global market liquidity that seems likely to continue.
"Risk Aversion Period" Before Key Data
At 3 AM this Thursday (Beijing time), the Federal Reserve's FOMC will announce its interest rate decision, and Fed Chair Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference; on Friday, Japan will release the December unemployment rate, and the U.S. will release December PPI data.
In this critical week for data releases, large funds generally choose to enter a "quiet period," reducing risk exposure and waiting for uncertainties to settle. This risk-averse sentiment further exacerbates market selling pressure.
Historical data shows that in the 5-7 days leading up to the FOMC decision, Bitcoin prices often perform weakly, exhibiting a pattern of "pre-meeting declines." For example, before the FOMC meeting in December 2025, Bitcoin fell from a high of $94,000 to around $90,000. Similarly, before the October 2025 meeting, Bitcoin dropped from $116,000 to below $112,000.
This pattern reflects the risk-averse operations of large institutional investors. Before the Fed's policy becomes clear, they tend to reduce their positions in risk assets to prepare for potential unexpected policy changes.
The "Seesaw" of Liquidity
Without an increase in macro liquidity, both the global market and the internal crypto market face a game of existing liquidity, with crypto liquidity being siphoned off by all markets, while the liquidity of mainstream coins like BTC is being drained by memes.
Bitcoin ETF vs Gold ETF
If macro factors are a long-term concern, then the flow of funds is a more immediate worry.
The approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF at the beginning of 2025 was seen as the "engine" of a bull market. However, data shows that since mid-January, the inflow of funds into the ETF has significantly slowed, even experiencing a net outflow for five consecutive days, totaling as much as $1.7 billion.
Meanwhile, gold and silver ETFs have been continuously attracting funds. In 2025, gold ETFs recorded the strongest inflow since 2020, with total holdings increasing by over 220 tons. This trend has continued into 2026.
Asset Class | January 2026 Fund Flow
--- | ---
Bitcoin ETF | Net outflow of approximately $1.7 billion
Gold ETF | Continuous net inflow
This stark contrast reflects a fundamental shift in market risk appetite. Against the backdrop of increasing macro uncertainty, funds are flowing from the high-risk Bitcoin to traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver.
Bitcoin, Gold, and Silver ETF January Fund Flow Comparison
Under the macro winter, the crypto market internally presents a stark divide. On one side, Bitcoin continues to decline, while on the other, meme coins are in a frenzy.
A Solana meme coin named "Nietzschean Penguin" ($PENGUIN) surged a hundredfold in two days due to an AI-generated image of Trump with a penguin posted by the White House's official Twitter, briefly reaching a market cap of $170 million.
This phenomenon is driven by extreme market sentiment suppression.
When macro narratives fail, value investing becomes ineffective, and the inflow of incremental funds from ETFs slows, the crypto market, having lost its wealth effect after 1011, sees existing funds flooding into meme coins in search of short-term wealth opportunities. This reflects a "doomsday carnival" mentality: since value coins aren't rising, why not gamble on a worthless coin?
However, this "chasing the rise" and "recovering losses" sentiment among investors is more easily captured and harvested by "manipulators." The "Nietzschean Penguin" received multiple retweets from A16Z, Solana's official account, the White House, and Musk's account within two days, indicating a well-prepared strategy.
The White House's official Twitter posted three "penguin" related tweets within two days.
$Trump, $Binance Life, every time the sentiment heats up, the strong background of the fast-paced market seems to follow with a sharp decline. This spread of sentiment further drains liquidity from mainstream coins, creating a vicious cycle.
Currently, the liquidity in the crypto market is much worse than in December 2024 and October 2025, so the White House and various Twitter accounts' retweets have only pushed the "Nietzschean Penguin" to a cap of less than $200 million.
Will the Storm Continue?
Although the debate over the "four-year cycle" of BTC is intensifying, since Bitcoin fell below $110,000 on October 11, 2025, the crypto market seems to have entered a bear market, with liquidity becoming increasingly scarce during three months of turbulence.
However, this time, the situation we face is more complex. The short-term trend of the market will depend on the political games in Washington, the policy signals from the Federal Reserve, and the earnings reports from tech giants.
From a longer-term perspective, the global economy seems to be in a precarious state due to geopolitical tensions, trapped in a cycle of debt, monetary easing, and bubbles.
And Trump remains like a "bomb" that could explode at any moment.
On January 17, the Trump administration threatened to impose a 10% import tariff on eight European countries, including Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, and Germany, to pressure them to concede on the Greenland issue. Although Trump temporarily abandoned the tariff threat after a meeting with NATO Secretary General on January 21, the "art of the deal" remains filled with uncertainty.
On January 24, Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all Canadian exports to the U.S. to prevent them from reaching a trade agreement with China.
No one can predict what "crazy" moves he will make next in order to secure re-election in the midterms.
For investors, now may not be a good time to chase other assets. In this "January siege," maintaining patience and caution while waiting for the macro fog to clear may be the only choice.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
