On January 26, 2026, the spot gold price strongly broke through the historical high of $5100/ounce, with an intraday increase of about 2.0%-2.5%, attracting attention in both traditional and cryptocurrency markets. Accompanying the main upward wave of gold, the market capitalization of on-chain tokenized gold and silver also rose in tandem: the overall market capitalization of tokenized gold climbed to approximately $5.27 billion (from a single statistical source, with limited scope), while the market capitalization of tokenized silver was about $439 million, with a 24-hour increase of approximately 4.5%, forming a correlated market for precious metal RWAs. During the same period, BTC was reported at approximately $88,021.74, down 0.81%, and ETH was reported at approximately $2,900, down 1.35%, contrasting sharply with the strength of precious metal-related RWAs, highlighting a phase preference for "on-chain safe-haven assets" and asset migration amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
Gold Breaks $5100 and Risk Aversion Rises
● Price Peak and Increase Range: On that day, spot gold surged above $5100/ounce, reaching a historical high during the session, with a daily increase maintained in the approximately 2.0%-2.5% range, significantly outperforming most traditional risk assets. Such a substantial increase not only reinforced gold's market label as the "ultimate safe-haven asset" but also opened up space for subsequent capital to migrate towards related derivatives and on-chain assets.
● Tariffs and Geopolitical Pressures Heighten Demand for Safe Havens: Against the macro backdrop of U.S.-China tariff threats and geopolitical tensions, global risk appetite has generally declined, leading to a noticeable increase in traditional capital's demand for assets with hedging properties. Gold, as the longest-standing and most widely accepted store of value, naturally occupies a priority position in this narrative, with its price breaking historical highs being one of the results of this concentrated release of risk aversion demand.
● Continued Policy Uncertainty: Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Gao Jianjun emphasized that "China advocates handling economic and trade issues through cooperation rather than confrontation," which somewhat releases a signal of easing but also indirectly indicates that the current uncertainty surrounding tariffs and economic competition still exists. The market's lack of clear expectations regarding future policy paths and timelines has passively increased the allocation weight of defensive assets.
● Disturbance to Traditional Asset Allocation: Gold's continued oscillation at historical high levels is reshaping the asset allocation framework of some institutions and high-net-worth individuals. On one hand, there is a tendency to increase the weight of gold in traditional stock-bond portfolios; on the other hand, the rapid rise in precious metal prices has compressed the attractiveness of some risk assets, laying the groundwork for subsequent capital to extend towards "gold-related derivatives" and even "on-chain gold-like RWAs," hinting at a style switch.
On-Chain Gold Follows Up and Tokenized Market Capitalization Rises
● Overall Scale of the Sector and Limitations of Scope: With spot gold reaching a new high, the market capitalization of on-chain tokenized gold has been pushed up to about $5.27 billion, showing a high correlation with the strengthening of offline gold prices. This figure comes from a single statistical source, and different data providers may have variations in their definitions and coverage, so interpretations should focus on "direction and trend" rather than the precision of absolute values.
● Mainstream Gold Token Holding Structure: According to statistics from Rhythm, the current mainstream tokenized gold contracts represented by PAXG, GOLD, etc., have a total holding of about $165 million, occupying an important share in the entire tokenized gold sector. The moderate increase in holding size indicates that on-chain capital is attempting to gain gold exposure through these contracts, combining macro risk aversion logic with cryptocurrency trading habits.
● Surge in Hyperliquid Transactions and Rankings: On the derivatives side, the Hyperliquid platform's gold contract trading volume has expanded to about $72.42 million during this market movement, and it has briefly entered the platform's TOP 10 trading volume categories. This indicates that the sharp fluctuations in gold prices are being actively translated into speculative and hedging demand in the on-chain and contract markets, with participation and attention significantly increased compared to previous phases.
● Amplified Volatility and Attractiveness of Crypto Capital: Compared to offline spot, on-chain gold products often incorporate mechanisms such as leverage, perpetual contracts, and liquidity squeezes, leading to an "amplification effect" in the price movements of the same underlying asset. With gold itself having significantly strengthened, crypto capital seeks higher beta through tokenized gold and related contracts, which not only hedges against mainstream coin volatility but also capitalizes on sharp price fluctuations for short-term gains, enhancing the attractiveness of this niche RWA sector.
Silver Follows Upward and Plays a Secondary Safe-Haven Role
● Scale and Increase of Tokenized Silver: Driven by the main upward wave of gold, on-chain tokenized silver has also gained significant attention, with an overall market capitalization of about $439 million and a 24-hour increase of approximately 4.5%. Although the absolute scale is still much smaller than that of tokenized gold, the short-term increase and activity level indicate the "catch-up" characteristics of secondary precious metals during a phase of rising risk aversion.
● Volume Differences Between Gold and Silver: Compared to the approximately $5.27 billion market capitalization of tokenized gold, the scale of tokenized silver is clearly in the "secondary tier." This somewhat reflects that the market still views gold as the preferred long-term hedging asset, while silver is more often used as a tactical hedging tool—when gold surges significantly and its cost-effectiveness is perceived to be temporarily weakened, some capital may shift to silver in the short term to capture relative gains.
● Emotional Spillover Drives Resonance in Precious Metal RWAs: In this round of market movement, the emotions and narratives formed by gold's price breaking historical highs quickly spill over, drawing attention to other precious metal RWAs, including silver. Capital spreads horizontally under the same logical framework, representing both a collective revaluation of members in the "basket of safe-haven assets" and a typical manifestation of sector rotation in the on-chain market when new narratives emerge.
● Liquidity Constraints and Risk Warnings: It is important to note that, compared to gold, silver-related tokens and contracts are significantly weaker in depth and liquidity, with shortcomings in order book thickness and cross-platform quote consistency. The combination of amplified volatility and limited liquidity means that during rapid rises or corrections, the silver sector is more prone to sharp fluctuations and increased slippage, making short-term trading riskier than for gold-related products.
RWA Rises Against the Trend Compared to BTC and ETH Corrections
● Mainstream Coin Daily Correction Data: Parallel to the strength of precious metal-related RWAs is the simultaneous weakness of mainstream coins: ETH was reported at approximately $2,900, with a 24-hour decline of about 1.35%; BTC was reported at approximately $88,021.74, with a decline of about 0.81%. This mild correction is not a "flash crash risk event," but it marginally weakens the market's short-term willingness to chase high-volatility, high-beta assets.
● Relative Returns and Style Switching: From the perspective of relative returns, when mainstream coins enter a technical adjustment period, while gold and silver RWAs rise against the trend, the style switching of capital becomes particularly prominent. Some traders are beginning to shift from chasing high-beta trends to focusing on asset forms supported by real-world collateral and risk aversion narratives, attempting to enhance the "defensive attributes" of their portfolios within the same risk budget.
● Boundaries of Capital Rotation Logic: Current signs indicate that there is indeed a possibility of capital shifting from mainstream coins and other high-risk tokens to "quasi-safe asset" RWAs, but in the absence of publicly available data on large on-chain capital inflows or changes in institutional holdings, it is insufficient to support the conclusion of "significant structural migration." Therefore, a more reasonable interpretation is that this is a localized rotation and tentative allocation within the crypto space, rather than a complete asset migration.
● Risk Aversion Sentiment Rather Than Extreme Risk Aversion: Overall, the price performance and volatility of this round of market movement resemble a temporary rise in risk aversion sentiment, rather than the result of a comprehensive bull market initiation or a dominant sentiment of widespread risk aversion. Mainstream coins did not experience panic selling, and the upward movement of the RWA sector is more based on macro narratives and localized incremental capital, rather than a fundamental rewriting of the entire crypto market pricing system.
From Wall Street to On-Chain: Amplified Interest in Gold Contracts
● Monitoring Signals of TOP 10 Trading Volume: According to market monitoring agency HyperInsight, "Gold contracts have entered the TOP 10 trading volume on derivatives platforms for the first time," indicating that the trading activity of gold-related contracts has now paralleled that of traditional mainstream crypto derivatives in this market movement. It is important to emphasize that this statement belongs to monitoring data and observational conclusions, and the specific rankings still depend on the actual trading conditions and statistical definitions of each platform.
● Hyperliquid Trading Volume Reflects Participation: At the platform level, the Hyperliquid gold contract trading volume on that day was approximately $72.42 million, which is significant for a derivatives platform primarily focused on crypto-native assets, proving that the gold theme is gaining broader attention from traders. The warming of the derivatives side indicates that not only is "safe-haven buying" increasing, but "directional speculation" and "leverage games" are also contributing energy to market volatility.
● Amplification Effect of CEX and Derivative Product Lines: As more platforms, including leading CEXs, launch gold-related contracts and spot/leverage trading pairs, the logic of precious metals in traditional capital markets is further transplanted into the crypto trading scene. A richer product line enhances the overall market's liquidity and price discovery efficiency, also inadvertently amplifying speculative demand, making each jump in gold prices more likely to trigger a chain reaction in the crypto derivatives market.
● Amplifier Role of RWA Narratives: In this round of correlated upward movement, RWA narratives act more like amplifiers rather than a single cause. Macro risk aversion sentiment, tariff and geopolitical uncertainties, and the pricing behavior of traditional gold ETFs and futures constitute the deep drivers of the market; on-chain tokenized assets and gold contracts translate these drivers into high-frequency, tradable targets, allowing traditional risk aversion logic to be repackaged, accelerated, and amplified in the crypto world.
Rising Risk Aversion Narrative: How Far Can RWA Go?
● Key Features of This Round of Correlated Market Movement: In summary, the breakthrough of gold above $5100/ounce on January 26, 2026, with an intraday increase of about 2.0%-2.5%, led to the correlated rise of tokenized gold market capitalization of about $5.27 billion and tokenized silver market capitalization of about $439 million (24h +4.5%), combined with Hyperliquid gold contract $72.42 million trading volume and "TOP 10 trading volume" monitoring signals, outlining a top-down linkage chain of "spot gold—on-chain gold—silver and other precious metal RWAs—derivative contracts."
● Data Gaps and Cognitive Boundaries: However, the market currently lacks key public data on what proportion of risk aversion capital actually flows into the crypto RWA sector, specific changes in institutional investor holdings, and term structures. Therefore, any conclusions about "institutions significantly increasing RWA positions" or "risk aversion capital accelerating to go on-chain" should be approached with caution, and it is more appropriate to view this round of market movement as a phase of "narrative-driven + localized incremental capital" amplification, rather than a trend that has been firmly established.
● Focus on Policy and Geopolitical Variables: Future variables that need to be closely monitored include: the subsequent developments of U.S. tariff policies and possible timing rhythms (currently, there is insufficient public information to make detailed projections), responses from China and other economies, and broader changes in the geopolitical landscape. These macro variables will determine whether risk aversion sentiment is fleeting or will maintain high levels over a longer period, profoundly affecting the pricing center of gold and its RWA assets.
● Short-term Outlook and Risks for the RWA Sector: In the short to medium term, as long as macroeconomic uncertainty does not significantly ease, precious metal-related RWAs are expected to continue enjoying relative advantages and high levels of attention, especially in an environment where mainstream coins are volatile and market capitalization competition intensifies. However, investors need to fully assess on-chain liquidity, order book depth, and impact costs as practical constraints when participating, and remain vigilant about potential risks of regulatory tightening. The long-term value of the RWA sector depends on compliance, transparency, and the quality of underlying assets, rather than short-term emotional fluctuations caused by single macro events.
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