Bitcoin is getting close to the point where long-term investors are compelled to consider probabilities rather than stories. Former Ark Invest executive Chris Burniske provided a clear, objective framework for when Bitcoin becomes appealing once more, based on structure rather than hype, as volatility contracts and the price fights to recover important moving averages.
Chris Burniske's overview
Burniske’s position is straightforward: he has set levels that are important if the market keeps declining, but he is not actively purchasing at this time. The first region is located at about $80,000, which is both the local bottom of the current bearish leg and the low from November 2025. This is the first area where dip buyers are likely to show up, but if overall risk sentiment stays low, it could easily collapse.
I'm not a buyer yet, but if I were to be a buyer, imo the areas to watch for $BTC are:
~$80K: Nov '25 low, local low of this "bear"
~$74K: April '25 low, Tariff Tantrum low, just below $MSTR's cost basis (~$76K)
~$70K: Top of $50-70K range, near '21 high
~$58K: 200W SMA &…
Below that, $74,000 starts to matter more. This level, which is slightly below MicroStrategy’s projected cost basis of about $76,000, represented the April 2025 low during the infamous Tariff Tantrum. This makes it relevant from a technical and psychological standpoint, because responses to big institutional reference points are often acute.
Even more structurally important is the $70,000 area. It is in close alignment with the cycle high of 2021 and represents the peak of the previous $50,000-$70,000 range. To find out if past resistance can serve as long-term support, markets frequently retest such levels. It would not be shocking if there was a strong response.
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Bitcoin is in muddy waters
Bitcoin enters real long-term valuation territory with a deeper decline. The 200-week simple moving average approaches on-chain cost basis estimates at about $58,000, with realized value close to $56,000. This zone has traditionally been used to identify high-probability accumulation areas during significant corrections.
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Lastly, Burniske identifies the psychological capitulation zone as $50,000 or less. This is the point at which “Bitcoin is dead” narratives would violently resurface, frequently in conjunction with forced selling and emotional exhaustion — conditions that usually precede long-term bottoms.
The mindset is more noteworthy than the precise figures. Burniske makes it clear that he does not give a damn about where Bitcoin goes next. He holds and diversifies if the price goes up. He purchases more Bitcoin and a few other cryptocurrencies if it crashes. Rather than forecasting, that strategy reflects disciplined capital allocation.
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