• XRP's price has not recovered
• On-chain stagnation

Price action and on-chain data are no longer consistent, and XRP is about to enter an uncomfortable phase. The asset spent months creating excitement about network usage and ecosystem growth, but the most recent signals indicate that momentum may be slowing down just when the price needs confirmation the most.

XRP's price has not recovered

Technically speaking, XRP is still stuck in a more general downward trend. The price is repeatedly rejected below the 200-day mark and finds it difficult to maintain above short-term support in the $1.90-$2.00 range, as seen by the chart’s repeated failures to recover important moving averages. In a sense, this region has become a decision range.

For the time being, buyers are defending it, but each bounce is weaker than the last, suggesting a steady decline in conviction rather than renewed strength. In the absence of a clear breakout and consistent volume, XRP runs the risk of falling into another leg lower, especially if broader market conditions fail to provide support.

On-chain stagnation

The on-chain backdrop is what makes the situation more worrisome. Over the past few months, there has been a sharp increase in XRP Ledger activity, with transaction counts and payment metrics rising quickly. The story of a fundamental revival was fueled by that surge and became a core part of the bullish narrative.

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That same important metric, though, is currently stagnating. The number of payments has reached a standstill and is no longer growing at the rate that once supported optimistic projections. In the past, network activity typically preceded distribution rather than continuation when it peaked and ceased to grow while the price stayed high.

Strong on-chain numbers draw attention, prices rise in anticipation, and then growth levels off while market participants continue to be unduly optimistic. This is typical late-cycle behavior. It is possible that the current euphoria on the chain is already priced in, leaving less room for upside surprise.

The market loses one of its most compelling bullish arguments if transaction growth does not pick back up. This does not imply that XRP will fail tomorrow, or that a sharp collapse is immediately inevitable. Consolidation is still feasible, particularly if the overall state of the market improves.

However, there has been a noticeable change in risk. Upside now needs new catalysts and a resurgence of actual usage growth, not just lingering hype. As weak hands leave once the growth narrative breaks, a breakdown below the $1.85-$1.90 range could lead to a deeper retrace.

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