In the Eastern Eight Time Zone this week, on-chain tracking data shows that a veteran whale, who previously lost about $13.73 million by buying ETH at a high in November 2025, has made significant moves again, attracting market attention. In this round of actions, this address has used approximately $20.23 million USDT to buy gold token XAUt, while simultaneously building a position in ETH with about $25.35 million USDT, establishing a dual betting framework of "hedging + offense" within its crypto account. With gold prices having surpassed $5,000 per ounce and its XAUt holdings showing an unrealized profit of about $1.83 million, the stark contrast in risk-return structure compared to the average entry price of ETH at about $2,966 makes this set of positions an important sample for observing current capital behavior.
From a $13.73 Million Loss to Returning to the Battlefield
● Loss Review: On-chain records show that this whale made a large purchase of ETH at a high in November 2025, and then chose to sell at a low during the price pullback, resulting in a total paper loss of about $13.73 million. At that time, the market was in the later stages of the previous emotional peak, with increased volatility in ETH, ample liquidity, but a strong atmosphere of chasing highs and cutting losses. This "buy high, sell low" operation was seen as a typical case of emotional capital misallocation, leading to this address being marked as one of the most conspicuous whales in terms of losses during this cycle.
● Change in Risk Appetite: Comparing the high volatility range of ETH in November 2025 with the current average entry price of about $2,966, it can be seen that the whale has shifted from chasing highs to patiently building positions closer to the oscillation center. Currently, there is significant divergence in the fundamentals and narratives surrounding ETH, with noticeable range volatility, but it is no longer in a phase of one-sided surges. This indicates that after experiencing a significant pullback, it has not completely contracted its positions but has accepted a more "balanced price + high volatility" risk combination, reflecting a shift in risk appetite from blind offense to a more rhythmic re-embrace of volatility.
● Capital Volume and Tolerance: Despite having confirmed a loss of $13.73 million, this address has re-entered the market with a scale of about $45.58 million USDT (approximately $20.23 million buying XAUt + $25.35 million buying ETH), demonstrating that its capital volume far exceeds that of ordinary participants, with psychological and financial tolerance for drawdowns at an institutional or quasi-institutional level. This behavior of daring to heavily invest in a single asset and large tokens after a significant loss indicates that its investment framework is closer to a portfolio-level long-term risk control, rather than being driven by the success or failure of a single trade.
7,369 XAUt Betting on New Gold Highs
● Position Building Rhythm: According to on-chain data, this whale first used about $20.23 million USDT to buy a total of 3,983.6 XAUt, and then expanded its XAUt position to the current scale of 7,369 XAUt through additional purchases or off-chain transfers. The segmented increase in position size shows that it is not an "all-in" approach, but rather a gradual increase in line with market confirmation during the upward movement of gold prices, elevating the "gold exposure" in its crypto account from a tentative layout to one of the core assets in its portfolio.
● Data Profile: Currently, this address holds a total of 7,369 XAUt, with a market value of approximately $37.03 million based on the price provided in the report, and an overall average cost of about $4,780, resulting in an unrealized profit of about $1.83 million. With the spot price of gold surpassing $5,000 per ounce, this XAUt position has entered a relatively comfortable range: on one hand, the overall unrealized profit space is not extreme, but it has validated the correct direction; on the other hand, there is still a buffer between the cost range and the current price, providing a strong safety net for continued holding.
● Hedging Role: The spot price of gold has surged above $5,000 due to macro uncertainty and global demand for safe-haven assets, causing the gold-pegged XAUt to naturally assume the role of a "quasi-safe-haven asset" on-chain. For this whale, placing gold positions in a crypto account retains exposure to rising gold prices while allowing for quick transfers and collateral operations in the on-chain environment, balancing efficiency between traditional gold markets and crypto capital, making XAUt a "defensive midfielder" in its portfolio.
8,547 ETH: Seeking Offensive Space Amid Volatility
● Key Position Data: The report shows that the whale has invested approximately $25.35 million USDT to buy 8,547 ETH, with an average entry price of about $2,966. Compared to its XAUt position with a market value of about $37.03 million, the size of the ETH position is of a similar magnitude, creating a relatively balanced weight distribution of "gold + ETH" in its overall portfolio. From a capital allocation perspective, this is not a small position trial but clearly views ETH as one of the main configurations for offense.
● Risk Asset Logic: Currently, there is a significant divergence in the market regarding the fundamentals and valuation of Ethereum, with one side being optimistic expectations surrounding ecosystem expansion, protocol upgrades, and potential on-chain application explosions; while the other side focuses on fee structures, competitive pressures from public chains, and valuation compression risks under tightening macro liquidity. By choosing to heavily invest in ETH alongside XAUt at this time, the whale reflects a willingness to bet half of its portfolio on high-volatility, high-beta assets, while the "safety net" is already provided by gold, aiming for higher overall expected returns through diversification between risk assets and safe-haven assets.
● Strategy Boundaries and Uncertainty: Currently, the external world cannot ascertain the more detailed trading strategies, profit-taking and stop-loss rules, or target price levels of this address; only the position size and cost range are visible on-chain. This means that any judgments about its future operations and profit ceilings can only remain at the level of "risk-return structure inference" and cannot rise to definitive conclusions. Based on the currently disclosed data, its ETH position is built around $2,966; if subsequent price volatility amplifies, the impact of this position on the net asset curve will also significantly increase.
Gold Tokens Gaining Popularity: Safe-Haven Sentiment Overflowing into Crypto
● Hot Case Comparison: In addition to the aforementioned XAUt whale, the report also mentions another trader using 5x leverage to go long on PAXG, currently showing an unrealized profit of 94.95%. On one side, there is an unrealized profit of about $1.83 million from the XAUt position, while on the other side, PAXG is nearing a doubling of returns under high leverage. Together, these illustrate the attention gold tokens are receiving in the crypto market, indicating that during a phase of traditional gold prices hitting new highs, on-chain gold assets are becoming a convergence point for some funds seeking hedging and speculation.
● Macro and Sentiment: The continuous rise in gold prices is closely related to the decline in global risk appetite and the increasing uncertainty of the U.S. political situation. In the traditional financial system, when political and macro prospects appear murky, funds often withdraw from high-risk assets and turn to "hard assets" like gold. This sentiment is spilling over into the crypto world—while some dollar funds are wary of pure risk assets, gold-pegged XAUt and PAXG have become a compromise choice, retaining on-chain liquidity and operational convenience while inheriting the safe-haven narrative of gold.
● Risk Boundaries: Although tokens like XAUt and PAXG are designed to peg to gold prices, they are still fundamentally constrained by multiple risks such as on-chain liquidity, custody arrangements, and the credit of the issuer, far from being an "absolute safe haven" in the traditional sense. In extreme market conditions or issuer risk events, their prices may experience severe volatility deviating from the underlying asset, and they may even face "black swan" scenarios such as redemption and circulation restrictions. Therefore, viewing them as risk-reducing tools in a portfolio is reasonable, but equating them simply with risk-free assets carries significant misjudgment potential.
On-Chain Capital Migration: Bidirectional Bets with USDT Purchases
● Stable Capital Diversion: This whale uses USDT as the main settlement asset while making large purchases of XAUt and ETH, hedging against macro uncertainty on one side and seeking offensive returns in the crypto space on the other, typically reflecting the capital migration path of "stable funds simultaneously flowing to both safe-haven and risk ends." This behavior of shifting from merely holding USDT to holding "gold + ETH" indicates a greater sensitivity to the opportunity cost of a single dollar cash position, willing to pursue higher capital efficiency under controllable risks.
● Dollar Liquidity Signal: The report notes that the recent circulation of USDC has decreased by about 1.3 billion, which is seen as a macro signal of dollar-type funds partially withdrawing from the crypto environment, reflecting a tightening tendency in overall liquidity. Against this backdrop, the total supply of stablecoins is tending to shrink, while individual whales are expanding risk and safe-haven positions with tens of millions of USDT against the trend, highlighting the differentiation in capital structure: one side is generally cautious or passively contracting, while the other side is a minority of funds attempting to leverage liquidity premiums to seek excess returns amid volatility.
● Large Holder Influence: When overall dollar liquidity tightens and the order book depth passively thins, single large holder operations at the level of tens of millions of USDT, like this one, will significantly amplify the marginal impact on the depth and short-term price fluctuations of related tokens like XAUt and ETH. Although the report does not provide immediate impact data on specific prices, based on the scale and market environment, such counter-trend accumulation behavior increases market sensitivity to the capital movements of a single entity and raises the exposure of following funds to liquidity tail risks.
Half Gold, Half ETH: The Whale's Offensive and Defensive Configuration
● Portfolio Structure Summary: Based on the report data, this whale has heavily invested in 7,369 XAUt and 8,547 ETH during the phase when gold prices surpassed $5,000 and Ethereum was in a consolidation range, with funds of approximately $37.03 million and $25.35 million USDT respectively, constructing a position combination that integrates "defense + offense." On one side, it relies on XAUt to share in the gold bull market dividends, while on the other side, it bets on the potential of crypto technology and ecosystem expansion through ETH, together outlining its dual optimism towards macro safe-haven assets and core crypto assets.
● Market Interpretation and Intent Boundaries: Some media commentators believe that this combination shows that this address has a "dual optimism towards gold and Ethereum," with outlets like Planet Daily and Golden Finance viewing its operations as a value sample of gold tokens in a volatile market. However, it is important to emphasize that on-chain data cannot directly reveal its true intentions and decision logic—whether it is long-term value allocation, phase trading strategies, or a more complex hedging combination, the external world lacks verification means, and any "motive interpretation" based on a single position carries the risk of overextension.
● Implications for Ordinary Investors: The reason whale trading is a topic of discussion lies in its scale and potential information advantage, but this does not mean that its path is suitable for simple replication by everyone. When facing high-correlation macro and high-volatility assets like XAUt and ETH, ordinary investors should independently assess the risk-return structure based on their own capital scale, risk tolerance, and holding period, rather than viewing whale movements as "free research." In a phase where macro uncertainty and liquidity tightening coexist, rationally controlling leverage, diversifying exposure, and clearly defining stop-loss boundaries are often more important than blindly following a single large holder.
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