On January 24, 2026, the market in the East Eight Zone is torn between surface highs and underlying fatigue. On one side, Bitcoin's price fluctuates around $89,627, nearing the "90,000" mark, while the premium index has turned negative for nine consecutive days, revealing a diminishing risk appetite and cautious incremental funds; on the other side, Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua boldly states that "ETH will be the biggest beneficiary of the interest rate cut cycle" and "as long as ETH's price is above $1,000, the position is absolutely safe," forming a stark contrast to the macro pessimism. On the same timeline, the established NFT platform Nifty Gateway announces its closure, contrasting sharply with the new meme coins like PENGUIN and memes launched on Binance Alpha: one represents the curtain call of the previous narrative, while the other carries the speculative imagination of a new round, creating a complex scene in the current crypto market of "high prices, low sentiment, and misaligned narratives."
Bitcoin Approaches Ninety Thousand but Shows Nine Days of Negative Premium
● Surface Prosperity: According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin's price on January 24 is about $89,627, nominally approaching the "90,000" threshold, technically still in the bull market high range. However, from the market structure perspective, this high does not accompany a volume-driven upward attack, but rather resembles repeated fluctuations near previous highs. The price curve extends the tail end of the bull market without opening new upward space, creating a sense of oppression in the market of "unable to rise and unwilling to fall."
● Negative Premium Signal: More alarmingly, the Bitcoin premium index has been in negative territory for nine consecutive days, with spot prices trading at a discount compared to derivatives. This usually indicates weak real demand for spot in the secondary market, with institutions and professional funds opting to hedge through futures and options rather than buying large amounts of spot. High negative premiums often correspond to a phase of "chips choosing to exit or wait," where price strength relies more on existing long positions rather than new funds pouring in.
● Long-Short Game: In this environment, Bitcoin mining company Cango still holds 7,873.6 BTC, playing a clear long-term role with a near ten-thousand volume. The holdings of mining companies are more tied to years of asset-liability structure and electricity costs, tending to view price fluctuations across cycles; while the continuous negative premium reflects that short-term funds choose to reduce risk exposure on the derivatives side. The hedging of long-term chips and short-term risk management on the same asset reinforces the sense of "price rising, sentiment falling."
Yi Lihua Bets on Ethereum in the Interest Rate Cut Cycle
● Biggest Beneficiary of the Interest Rate Cut Cycle: Yi Lihua publicly states, "ETH will be the biggest beneficiary of the interest rate cut cycle," directly linking Ethereum to the upcoming expectations of global monetary easing. Under this logic, a decline in interest rates not only raises the valuation discount of high-growth assets but may also shift some preferences for tech stocks and risk assets to smart contracts and L1 assets, viewing ETH as the intersection of "tech growth stocks and crypto-native assets."
● $1,000 Safety Line: He also emphasizes, "as long as ETH's price is above $1,000, the position is absolutely safe," effectively providing a psychological safety anchor. This judgment is not a specific target price but a qualitative assessment of the retracement space and risk-reward ratio: in the current macro environment and Ethereum's network position, he believes that even in the event of a deep adjustment, as long as it does not fall below this level, the risk of long-term holding remains controllable, implying trust in the underlying network effects and cash flow narrative of ETH, rather than merely chasing short-term price differences.
● Counter-Trend Positioning: In contrast to this optimistic attitude, research briefs indicate that the market maintains a large-scale bearish sentiment towards altcoins, with funds leaning towards defensive mainstream assets and reducing high beta exposure. In such an environment, publicly betting on ETH and providing a clear safety range is essentially a declaration of counter-trend positioning, sharply contrasting with the general trend of "reducing altcoin exposure and shrinking risk assets," and reinforcing the proactive power of institutional funds in narrative selection.
● Institutional and Retail Dislocation: From a structural perspective, institutions focus more on cycles and asset combinations, seeking varieties that benefit from both "valuation and liquidity" under interest rate cut expectations; retail investors, on the other hand, are more likely to sway in local fluctuations and social media sentiment, viewing ETH as "blue-chip that isn't rising fast enough." This misalignment in risk appetite often lays the groundwork for subsequent market movements: when institutions preemptively position in mainstream assets while retail investors are still speculating on fringe assets, once liquidity is truly released, price revaluation may first manifest in core assets like ETH.
The Curtain Call of Old NFT Platforms and Cooling Sector Narratives
● Symbol of Early Platforms: Nifty Gateway, as one of the early NFT platforms, was acquired by Gemini in 2019 and was an important market entry point during the last NFT boom. It witnessed the complete narrative cycle from the explosive rise of crypto artists, celebrity collectible launches, to the emergence of blue-chip avatars. For many old players, Nifty represents the first-generation memory of "NFT moving from niche to mainstream."
● The Closing Cycle's Implications: Now, with Nifty announcing its closure, the brief does not provide internal decision details, but the timing is highly symbolic: it materializes the "curtain call of the previous cycle's main stage," indicating that the era of protagonists in the last NFT narrative has ended. The track once seen as a breakthrough for the cultural and artistic aspects of the crypto world, after experiencing sky-high auctions and peak trading volumes, has entered a period of cooling traffic and reflection on business models.
● Emotional Transmission to the Ethereum Ecosystem: As one of the most communicative entry points in the Ethereum ecosystem, the contraction of NFT's liquidity and user attention will inversely affect the market's growth expectations for the entire ETH ecosystem. The platform's closure itself does not rewrite Ethereum's technical path but will weaken the warmth of the "cultural assets + public chain" narrative. For a market that is already generally bearish on altcoins, this event further reinforces the cold feeling of "narrative receding, only prices remain," making it more difficult for ETH to gain additional emotional premiums from the NFT sector in the short term.
As Old NFT Platforms Cool, Meme…
● New Coins Launched on Binance Alpha: In contrast to the closure of the old NFT platform, the tokens PENGUIN and memes are launched on Binance Alpha during the same period. As a section of the leading centralized exchange aimed at early projects and new narrative testing grounds, Alpha emphasizes a positioning of "high risk, high volatility, early participation," providing the market with a new round of high-leverage emotional vehicles, still able to attract short-term funds' attention during a market downturn.
● Volume Comparison and Imagination Space: According to GMGN data, PENGUIN has a market cap of about $59.2 million, while memes has a market cap of about $11.92 million, forming a clear volume stratification within the same sector. For speculative funds, higher market cap projects are seen as relatively stable emotional anchors, while lower market cap coins carry the imagination of "doubling or even tenfold." This market cap difference itself is part of the narrative, providing a script for short-term speculation.
● Speculative Impulse Under Bearish Sentiment: The brief indicates that the market remains largely bearish on altcoins, but this has not stopped funds from continuously probing the meme sector. The more mainstream assets lean towards defense and sentiment is conservative, the more some retail and high-risk funds tend to seek "big opportunities with small bets" through memes, viewing it as a short-term rebellion against a dull market. This mindset does not rely on fundamentals but rather on the immediate feedback of "story + order book."
● Exchange-Induced Waves and Illusions of Liquidity: The launch of new coins on leading exchanges often concentrates traffic and order book depth in a short time, creating an appearance of "excellent liquidity and active trading." However, this type of liquidity heavily relies on platform exposure and short-term funds' presence; once attention shifts or new stories emerge, trading volumes may quickly revert to normal. For participants unaware of the structure, it is easy to misinterpret this temporary prosperity as a long-term trend, overlooking the essence of "liquidity leasing" rather than "liquidity sedimentation."
Emotional Tear: Hedging, Speculation, and Price…
● Multiple Contradictions in the Same Space: By juxtaposing various clues, one can see the current market's emotional tear: Bitcoin operates at a high of $89,627, yet accompanies nine consecutive days of negative premium indicating weak demand; institutional representatives are bullish on ETH and set a "safety line of $1,000"; the closure of the old NFT platform Nifty releases a signal of retreat; while meme coins like PENGUIN and memes spark a new round of speculative enthusiasm on Binance Alpha. Hedging, defense, optimism, and impulse collide within the same timeframe.
● Layered Market Portrait: On one side are mining companies holding 7,873.6 BTC and institutions positioning for ETH's interest rate cut benefits, attempting to build a cross-cycle defense with mainstream assets; on the other side is a group primarily composed of retail and high-risk funds, still eagerly flocking to memes in the generally bearish altcoin world, attempting to replicate the wealth myth of the last round in short-term fluctuations. The same market is clearly divided into a "value anchoring layer" and an "emotional amplification layer," with clear stratification in narrative and fund flow.
● Fund Rotation and Dislocated Opportunities: In such a torn structure, funds may rotate in phases along the path of "BTC → ETH → high beta assets → meme/narrative new tracks." The current high negative premium of Bitcoin and the generally pressured environment for altcoins provide a time window for institutions to quietly increase their positions in mainstream assets like ETH; while retail's short-term revelry concentrated on memes, once the tide recedes, some funds may also flow back to more liquid mainstream coins, forming a "first institutions, then retail" rhythm for catch-up, providing space for identifying dislocations.
● Distinguishing Narratives and Fundamentals: In the environment where Nifty's shutdown, new memes, interest rate cut expectations, and Bitcoin's high fluctuations overlap, single-dimensional emotional judgments are prone to extremism. For participants, it is more crucial to distinguish the gap between "the heat of storytelling" and "actual progress on-chain and in the ecosystem," viewing the closure of the NFT platform as a signal of sector cooling rather than a complete denial of Ethereum's fundamentals; at the same time, it is essential to realize that the popularity of memes is more about liquidity games than long-term value endorsement, avoiding being continuously led by short-term narratives.
Finding the Next Main Line Amidst the Interweaving of Ice and Fire
In the current landscape, Ethereum stands at an undervalued intersection: one end connects to the global potential interest rate cut cycle and liquidity return expectations, while the other end bears the valuation discount brought by the cooling of NFT narratives and the overall bearish view on altcoins. As funds withdraw from high beta tracks like NFTs and reassess the allocation ratio of mainstream assets, ETH has the opportunity to benefit simultaneously as both "defender among risk assets" and "attacker under interest rate cut logic," becoming a key recipient in the redistribution of funds. Bitcoin's high of $89,627 accompanied by continuous negative premiums, combined with the general bearish view on altcoins, constructs a seemingly cautious yet opportunity-hidden defensive environment: on the surface, funds choose to wait and reduce risks, but in reality, it opens a window for mid-term positioning in mainstream assets, especially ETH. Moving forward, the macro-level rhythm and strength of interest rate cuts, whether the ETH ecosystem can tell new growth stories in DeFi, L2, or new application layers, and the rhythm of leading exchanges in new coins and new narratives will jointly determine the direction of funds oscillating between mainstream and fringe assets. In this interweaving of ice and fire, it is more important not to chase any one extreme, but to identify the true soil where the next main line is rooted amidst emotional tears, price misalignments, and accelerated rotations.
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