On January 24, 2026, ARK Invest submitted applications to regulators for two cryptocurrency asset ETFs linked to the CoinDesk 20 Index: one covering the full CoinDesk 20 basket, including Bitcoin, and the other designed to exclude Bitcoin, retaining only the remaining cryptocurrencies. Both products were introduced simultaneously, continuing ARK's aggressive style in emerging assets while also sending a clear signal in a market dominated by panic about “how to slice the crypto market”—traditional funds are no longer passively accepting the narrative of “single-coin volatility” but are beginning to consider: Should Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies be viewed as the same type of risk, or as two completely different asset allocation logics? This step could reshape traditional investors' classification of crypto assets, their risk perceptions, and the underlying templates for asset allocation in the coming years.

Behind the Application: The Symbol of CoinDesk 20 and ARK's Old Story

● Index Symbol: The CoinDesk 20 Index is designed to track the twenty most representative cryptocurrencies in terms of market capitalization and liquidity, serving as the “crypto blue-chip basket” under the lens of mainstream English financial media. By choosing this index as a benchmark rather than creating a more speculative portfolio, ARK is making a statement: treating crypto assets as a standardized asset pool that can be understood by mainstream media and institutional investment committees, rather than as marginal speculative targets.

● ARK's Long-Term Narrative: From Tesla to gene technology, and to its early strong allocation in Bitcoin-related assets, ARK has been known for betting on “long-cycle growth stocks driven by technology and institutional change.” The decision to submit applications for CoinDesk 20-related ETFs on January 24, 2026, continues this same logic—despite short-term price volatility, ARK sees crypto assets as still in the early stages of a curve similar to that of the early internet or emerging tech stocks, warranting the creation of long-term funding channels through public products.

● Asset Spectrum Expansion: Previously, mainstream crypto-related financial products were largely built around single Bitcoin, packaging BTC as “digital gold” or a high-volatility risk asset. By targeting the CoinDesk 20, it signifies a shift from the “single-coin story” to the “basket story”: investors are no longer betting on a single coin price but are exposed to a complete set of multi-coin volatility, correlation, and style, which is closer to the positioning of emerging market indices or tech growth indices in the traditional asset world.

Bitcoin and Non-Bitcoin: A Divided Product Approach

● Design Intent: Submitting both CoinDesk 20-related ETFs that include Bitcoin and exclude Bitcoin essentially divides the crypto world at the institutional level. On one side is Bitcoin, the largest by market cap and most influential, often compared to “digital gold,” while on the other side is a high-beta growth asset group represented by Ethereum and others. This split clearly reflects institutions' judgment that the risk-return structure of “leading assets and long-tail assets is fundamentally different.”

● Dual-Line Betting: For traditional funds, an ETF containing BTC can be more easily packaged as a “gold-like allocation to hedge against inflation and participate in the growth of on-chain infrastructure”; while the product line excluding BTC resembles a high-elasticity growth portfolio betting on smart contracts, public chain ecosystems, and application narratives. Family offices or high-net-worth investors can set different position limits and holding periods on the two product lines, effectively making defensive and offensive choices within the same track.

● Fund Weight and Rotation: Once these layered products achieve scale, the flow of funds between Bitcoin and other mainstream crypto assets may no longer be merely “emotion-driven chasing and panic selling,” but will more reflect mechanical rotation based on index weight changes, correlation management, and risk budget adjustments. The difference in subscription and redemption between the ETFs containing and excluding BTC will also provide a new indicator for observing whether funds favor digital gold or high-beta crypto growth.

In a Market of Extreme Panic, Institutions Choose to Layout Against the Trend

● Emotional Background: On the same day ARK submitted its application, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index was only 25, still in the “extreme fear” zone, indicating that most market participants tend to reduce positions, defend, or even wait and see. By launching two ETFs linked to CoinDesk 20 at this time, ARK is not following the trend but is paving the way for future capital entry with institutionalized products during a panic cycle, which carries a strong contrarian meaning.

● Mismatch of Secondary Stocks and ETF Rhythm: On the same day, blockchain concept stocks weakened overall, with Coinbase's stock price falling about 2.77%, and the traditional equity market gave negative feedback to crypto-related targets. However, ETF applications are institutional events planned over many years and do not synchronize with daily stock price fluctuations. This combination of “secondary stock price decline + institutional product advancement” can easily be misread as bearish on an emotional level, but often prepares for the next cycle's capital channel in terms of time.

● Pullback, Panic, and Large-Scale Allocation Window: Looking back at the history of traditional assets, many large-scale index tools were not always launched at the peak of a bull market but often after the previous round of frenzy receded, prices pulled back, and emotions were low. The current combination of “price pressure + index panic + institutional layout” is highly similar to this typical pattern: when retail and speculative funds recede, institutions have the space to gradually reclaim the next stage of price discovery and liquidity dominance through ETFs.

From Regulatory Games to Asset Allocation Revolution

● Compliance Channels and Infrastructure Promotion: Without predicting the approval time and details, it is reasonable to expect that once these CoinDesk 20-related ETFs are approved, there will be significant advancements in compliance entry channels, standardized custody services, and transparency in index pricing. More funds can indirectly hold a basket of crypto assets through brokerage accounts or bank wealth management channels, without having to manage private keys or exchange risks, thus forcing infrastructure to evolve towards higher professional standards.

● Traditional Institutions' Reconfiguration of Allocation and Risk Control: Once financial advisors, family offices, and public funds obtain officially recognized indexed crypto tools, crypto assets are expected to upgrade from “alternative speculation” to a class of assets that is measurable, traceable, and can be included in risk budgets. Although specific ratios may vary by institution, the general direction will revolve around “low unit allocation, portfolio diversification, and volatility control”: part of the funds will gain exposure to macro narratives through BTC-inclusive products, while another part will seek excess returns in technology and application tracks through BTC-excluding products.

● From Niche Speculation to Standard Asset Basket: Comparing the popularization process of gold and emerging market ETFs reveals a similar trajectory: first dominated by over-the-counter trading and individual stock speculation, followed by the introduction of index products that package dispersed individual risks into standardized baskets, ultimately becoming a regular option on the allocation menu. If CoinDesk 20 is gradually embedded into various asset allocation models, crypto assets may follow the same path, transitioning from speculative venues in forums and communities to regular modules in investment research teams' Excel spreadsheets.

The Subtle Coexistence of Institutions and Cypherpunks

● Complex Relationship Coordinates: Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin once pointed out, “The relationship between institutions and cypherpunks is very complex; they are neither natural allies nor natural enemies.” This statement provides a clear coordinate for understanding the current game: the CoinDesk 20 ETF promoted by ARK is an extension of institutional will in the crypto world, while the cypherpunk tradition emphasizes sovereignty, self-custody, and vigilance against centralized power, creating inherent tension between the two.

● The Double-Edged Sword of Liquidity and Scrutiny: The arrival of indexed ETFs will significantly enhance the liquidity and legitimacy of mainstream crypto assets, providing more stable funding sources for protocol and application layers. However, the same channels will also give regulatory, compliance screening, and scrutiny powers more weight off-chain: which assets can enter the basket, which events will trigger exclusion, and which protocols will be seen as “too high regulatory risk” may all be amplified through changes in ETF components, creating structural contradictions with the ideals of “permissionless and censorship-resistant” decentralization.

● The Outline of a Coexisting Pattern: A conceivable future is one of coexisting states with different dreams: on one end, compliant ETFs continuously absorb mainstream funds, turning indices like CoinDesk 20 into “crypto assets comprehensible to traditional finance”; on the other end, the fundamentalist crypto community continues to insist on self-custody, privacy protection, and the development of anti-censorship tools on-chain. The two are highly coupled in terms of price and liquidity but remain divided in terms of values and governance rights, and this structure itself may be a stage that the crypto world must go through to mature.

When CoinDesk 20 is Incorporated into Institutional Asset Allocation Tables

● Signal Summary: ARK's simultaneous application for two ETFs linked to CoinDesk 20, deliberately distinguishing between “including Bitcoin” and “excluding Bitcoin,” sends a key signal: institutions are no longer satisfied with just looking at Bitcoin but want to use indexed tools to slice the entire crypto landscape. Bitcoin is no longer representative of all crypto assets but is viewed as one, albeit a very special, layer.

● Insights for Investors: For individual and institutional investors, the key observation moving forward should be whether there begins to be a clearer differentiation between Bitcoin and non-Bitcoin assets in terms of valuation systems, sources of funds, and risk premiums. For example, whether BTC-inclusive products are more likely to attract defensive funds, while BTC-excluding baskets may rely more on high-risk preferences and long-term growth expectations; these differences will determine the performance rhythm and relative strength of the two sectors in the next cycle.

● The Outline of a New Narrative: Even though there are many uncertainties surrounding ETF approvals, the new narrative around indexing, compliance, and asset layering in crypto has officially emerged in this application on January 24, 2026. The relationship between Bitcoin and other crypto assets will increasingly be described in terms of “asset classes” rather than “single coins”; the traditional finance and crypto worlds will also embark on a slow yet profound asset allocation revolution along the paths of indices, custody, and compliance.

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