In the Eastern Eight Time Zone, by the end of 2024, French hardware wallet manufacturer Ledger has been reported by multiple media outlets to be preparing for an IPO in the United States. According to the Financial Times, the company has hired Goldman Sachs, Jefferies, and Barclays as investment banks to handle the related work, aiming to complete the listing by 2026. This company, which was valued at approximately $1.5 billion during its 2023 financing, is now rumored to have an IPO target valuation that may reach over $4 billion, creating a significant space for controversy between the primary and secondary markets. Prior to this, with frequent hacking incidents in the crypto industry and increasing custodial risk events, user demand for asset security and self-custody has surged, providing a window of opportunity for the hardware wallet sector and a stage for Ledger's attempt to reshape its valuation.

From a Small Parisian Company to the Leading Player in Crypto Hardware

● Founding Path: Ledger was established in 2014, headquartered in Paris, and from the beginning, it has bet on the physical security of crypto assets, focusing on hardware wallet product lines. From early USB-shaped devices that were more geek-oriented to the subsequent iterations supporting multiple currencies and multi-signature, Ledger has continuously upgraded its product experience, usability, and security architecture, gradually growing from a niche player to a branded manufacturer targeting global users.

● Revenue Growth: According to public reports, Ledger has recently achieved record revenues driven by "demand for anti-hacking," with its annual revenue reaching over $100 million, indicating that this hardware sector has transitioned from a peripheral accessory to a business scale capable of supporting large companies. With each round of new funds pouring into the crypto bull market, sales of hardware wallets as an entry point have also risen, forming a positive feedback loop of "security anxiety—hardware purchase—revenue amplification."

● Industry Position: After a round of financing in 2023, Ledger's valuation was approximately $1.5 billion, a figure that far exceeded most similar manufacturers at the time, matching its annual revenue of over $100 million. Whether in global user recognition or in institutional partnerships and brand exposure, Ledger has become the most symbolic leading enterprise in the crypto hardware wallet sector, with its name almost synonymous with "cold wallet."

Under the Shadow of Hackers, the Demand for Self-Custody is Rekindled

● Risk Awakening: In recent years, numerous cases of theft from various trading platforms and risks from custodial institutions have made many investors acutely aware of the hidden dangers of "assets not truly belonging to oneself." When platform accounts are frozen, hacked, or liquidation risks emerge, the issues of asset ownership and private key control have begun to spread from the tech circle to a broader investor audience, driving more people to re-examine the fundamental question of "where to store coins."

● Mental Shift: Under the trend of self-custody, the role of hardware wallets has gradually evolved from being a security toy for early geek players to a secure entry point for ordinary investors entering the crypto world. For many new users, the ability to keep private keys offline, isolated from the internet, and to complete signing and authorization through a physical device has become a more easily understood security solution than complex technical details, directly expanding the potential market for hardware wallets.

● Security and Performance: Golden Finance cites market voices stating that Ledger's recent revenue has set records "driven by investor demand for anti-hacking," linking macro-level security anxiety directly to the company's specific performance. Each industry-level security incident reignites discussions about self-custody on social media and in communities, with Ledger being one of the most prominent beneficiaries of this narrative wave.

From $1.5 Billion to $4 Billion: A High-Multiple Narrative Gamble

● Valuation Leap: According to multiple media reports, Ledger's valuation after financing in 2023 was approximately $1.5 billion, while the target valuation reported during its preparation for the U.S. IPO is over $4 billion. Achieving more than a twofold increase in valuation in just a few years is not merely a result of revenue growth but resembles a high-multiple revaluation centered around future narratives, market space, and industry position.

● Mainline Logic: The core narratives supporting this valuation leap include three main lines: first, as crypto assets become increasingly institutionalized, security infrastructure is assigned a higher premium, with hardware wallets viewed as the "safes" of on-chain assets; second, there is an expectation of a rebound in the next crypto cycle, with new funds entering the market likely to amplify profit margins again; third, the current penetration rate of hardware wallets among overall users remains low, providing investors with a sufficiently large "future incremental market" imagination space.

● Game Dynamics: Between the $1.5 billion and $4 billion valuations lies a game of interests among multiple participants: early shareholders hope to lock in high multiple returns during the IPO; potential U.S. investors will be more cautious in assessing the ceiling and cyclicality of the hardware wallet business; industry observers will view Ledger's pricing as a pricing anchor for the entire hardware security sector. Different participants' varying bets on the future space of crypto security will be amplified in the issuance range and post-listing performance.

Top Investment Banks on Board: What U.S. Markets See in Ledger

● Choosing the U.S.: According to the Financial Times, Ledger has hired Goldman Sachs, Jefferies, and Barclays as top investment banks to manage this IPO and has chosen to list in the U.S. market. This decision is both symbolic—placing itself on the stage with the most concentrated global capital—and practical: U.S. markets are more familiar with high-growth, high-volatility technology and crypto-related companies, with several crypto concept stocks already available for benchmarking, providing references for pricing and liquidity.

● Narrative Packaging: In the U.S. capital markets, Ledger could be shaped into different story versions: one is positioned as a "cybersecurity company," emphasizing its technical strength in protecting digital assets and resisting attacks; the other is described as a "crypto infrastructure company," placing it within a broader category of on-chain ecological infrastructure. Different narrative paths will influence investor expectations and determine which valuation curve it aligns closer to.

● Pricing Impact: The involvement of top investment banks not only enhances the credibility of the issuance but also means they will play a significant role in the valuation range, investor structure, and benchmark samples. On one hand, these banks can mobilize institutional funds familiar with the technology and crypto sectors; on the other hand, they will benchmark Ledger's valuation against existing crypto trading platform stocks, mining stocks, or cybersecurity stocks, seeking a market-acceptable balance between "security premium" and "crypto discount."

The Glory and Shackles of the First Crypto Hardware Stock

● Symbolic Significance: If the IPO ultimately succeeds, Ledger is likely to become the most representative "first crypto hardware stock" in the global capital markets. This identity can not only bring brand premium to the company itself but also provide confidence and demonstration for the entire hardware wallet and broader on-chain security device sector, helping similar companies secure institutional understanding and valuation support in future financing.

● Regulatory Constraints: However, entering the capital market also means stepping into a more stringent regulatory and information disclosure framework. The hardware wallet business is inherently affected by the volatility of the crypto cycle, with revenues potentially experiencing significant fluctuations between bull and bear markets. This high volatility can often be masked by long-term logic in the private equity market, but under Wall Street's quarterly assessment system, it will be placed under a microscope, becoming a focal point of inquiry for analysts and regulators.

● Valuation Backlash: If the $4 billion level valuation is ultimately locked in during the IPO but fails to be digested by the secondary market, it could lead to a situation where the stock price is pressured post-listing or even falls below the issue price. Once the valuation is compressed in the public market, it will not only affect the returns of old and new shareholders but may also create a backlash on the sentiment of the entire crypto security sector, making it more challenging for newcomers to secure financing and tell their stories. This is also a shackle that Ledger must bear while sprinting towards "glory."

The Timeline is Uncertain, and This IPO Remains an Open Gamble

On the official level, Ledger has not yet directly confirmed the finalization of its IPO plan and specific timeline. The speculation about a possible listing in the U.S. by 2026 mainly comes from reports by the Financial Times and signals that several investment banks have already been hired. The various estimates and bets currently being made in the market are essentially pricing an event that has not yet been finalized under limited information conditions, indicating that uncertainty is far from eliminated.

Surrounding this potential IPO, three main lines are intertwined: first, the amplified security demand under the shadow of hacking incidents and custodial risks; second, the trend of self-custody pushing hardware wallets from geek toys to mainstream security infrastructure; third, the capital market's attempt to capture the future returns of the above two trends with a high-multiple valuation. These three main lines not only provide Ledger with an unprecedented stage but also, in an intangible way, raise the threshold it needs to prove itself.

In the next two years, the outcome of this valuation gamble will heavily depend on three variables: first, the cyclical evolution of the global crypto market, which will determine the short-term demand elasticity for security products; second, the regulatory attitudes of various countries towards crypto and related security devices, which will affect compliance costs and accessible market space; third, Ledger's actual performance in product iteration, revenue stability, and brand risk management. The target valuation of $4 billion is both a test of the market's asking price and a pressure test of whether it can uphold the role of "first crypto hardware stock."

Join our community to discuss and grow stronger together!
Official Telegram community: https://t.me/aicoincn
AiCoin Chinese Twitter: https://x.com/AiCoinzh

OKX Benefits Group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=l61eM4owQ
Binance Benefits Group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=ynr7d1P6Z

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。