On January 23, 2026, at 8:00 AM UTC+8, an on-chain transfer from a wallet address starting with 0x6b41 has drawn significant market attention: this address transferred 1.8 million PENDLE to the exchange Bybit approximately 7 hours ago, which is worth about 3.83 million USD at current prices. According to a single source, these tokens mainly came from the continuous unlocking of Pendle token allocation contracts from April 2022 to April 2023, currently showing an unrealized profit of over 3.5 million USD. The market sentiment has noticeably heated up regarding whether this early large unlock will create selling pressure on the exchange and its impact on Pendle's short-term price and sentiment.
What Does the Entry of 1.8 Million Tokens Mean?
● Single source unlocking path: On-chain records show that the 0x6b41 address has repeatedly claimed tokens from Pendle token allocation contracts between April 2022 and April 2023, demonstrating a typical long-term allocation unlocking path. The briefing emphasizes that the current claims about the source of tokens from this address mainly come from a single data source, but overall indicate that this is the result of continuous unlocking of early allocation tokens, rather than dispersed purchases in the secondary market.
● Relative market pressure indication: The 1.8 million PENDLE transferred to Bybit at once is worth about 3.83 million USD at current market prices. Although the briefing did not provide precise data on Pendle's immediate circulating market cap and 24-hour trading volume, making it impossible to give a rigorous ratio, this amount is already considered a significant sum among DeFi tokens, enough to amplify short-term price fluctuations when the order book is relatively thin, thus being tracked closely by the market as a potential "whale token" event.
● Investment return range and multiples: According to a single source estimate, the original cost of these tokens is approximately 221,000 to 266,000 USD, corresponding to the current market value of about 3.83 million USD, resulting in a nominal unrealized profit of over 3.5 million USD, with overall returns reaching several times. It is important to emphasize that the specific cost range and multiples remain data pending verification, but the combination of "early large unlock + significant unrealized profit" is enough to amplify the interpretation of this transfer in terms of sentiment.
Common Consequences of Unlocking Tokens Appearing on Exchanges
● Selling pressure path from a token economics perspective: In most token distribution models, teams and early investors typically unlock tokens linearly or in installments through allocation contracts. As unlocking progresses, this previously locked supply gradually enters a circulating state, and if concentrated in the secondary market, it may significantly increase the effective circulating supply in the short term, creating structural selling pressure on prices. Therefore, early token unlocking and circulation are often seen as key variables in mid to late market trends.
● Empirical rules from similar DeFi projects: From past DeFi project cases, when large unlocking addresses concentrate on transferring tokens to exchanges in a short time, the market often anticipates potential sell-offs, leading to intensified short-term volatility and increased slippage. Once some tokens are actually dumped onto the order book, if the buying depth cannot fully absorb them, prices may experience a "sudden drop—emotional panic—further sell-off" chain reaction, even if the actual selling scale is less than expected; the expectation itself is enough to impact prices in advance.
● Differentiating the impact of three stages: It is essential to clearly distinguish three different stages: first, unlocked but still held in allocation or personal addresses, which only creates potential supply pressure on the market; second, transferred to the exchange but not yet traded, mainly affecting sentiment and expectations; third, listed on the order book and actually traded, which will directly impact prices. The current status of 0x6b41 is only clearly defined as "transferred to Bybit," and cannot be equated with having completed a large-scale sell-off.
Transferring to Bybit Does Not Equal Dumping
● Possibility of multiple motivations: On-chain analyst @EmberCN reminds that transferring tokens to exchanges does not necessarily mean an immediate liquidation; it may be for various considerations such as hedging, position adjustment, or fund management. Especially after significant appreciation of tokens, transferring some tokens to centralized platforms for management, collateral, or flexible allocation is a common choice for many early holders, so "entry" cannot simply be equated with "dumping."
● Focus on observable indicators rather than sentiment: Trader @whalertalk suggests that the market should pay more attention to observable data such as PENDLE's spot balance changes, order book structure, and lending market utilization rate on Bybit. For example, if the overall balance on the exchange continues to rise but large sell orders are limited, it may indicate more potential token reserves; if the lending utilization rate rises, it may suggest leveraging or hedging behavior using PENDLE, which reflects real intentions better than a single transfer.
● Cautious interpretation under information boundaries: The briefing currently states that there is no detailed transaction information available for the 0x6b41 address on Bybit, nor is there complete tracking of subsequent on-chain flows or re-transfers, making it impossible to confirm whether a large-scale sell-off has occurred, and it cannot be inferred what trading or hedging strategies the address has adopted. In this information gap, equating "transfer to the exchange" with "already dumped" carries a high risk.
Will the Rising Open Interest in Contracts Amplify Sentiment?
● Interpretation of signals from rising open interest: According to the briefing, the open interest for PENDLE contracts on Bybit has recently increased by about 35%, which is also marked as data pending verification. If this trend is true, it indicates that leveraged trading around PENDLE is significantly heating up, with more funds betting on future price directions against the backdrop of whale tokens entering the exchange, making leverage changes more likely to be interpreted as sentiment polarization.
● The volatility mechanism of leverage as a double-edged sword: Rising open interest may correspond to two entirely different directions: first, bullish chasing, betting that whales may not dump, or even viewing the transfer as an opportunity for short-term bearish exhaustion; second, bearish hedging or speculation, using the event of large tokens entering the exchange to bet on a decline. Regardless of the direction, the presence of leverage will amplify price consistency actions, triggering a more pronounced "chain liquidation—accelerated volatility" chain, causing short-term trends to deviate from fundamentals.
● Comprehensive judgment requires multi-dimensional data: A single change in open interest is insufficient to depict the full picture; a more reasonable approach is to analyze it in conjunction with net spot inflows/outflows, funding rates, and contract basis among other multi-dimensional indicators. For instance, if open interest rises alongside net spot inflows and positive funding rates, it may reflect bullish sentiment; conversely, it may indicate high-level hedging or concentrated shorting. The briefing did not provide specific values, so investors should cross-verify on secondary data platforms rather than concluding based solely on the "35%" figure.
The Tension Between Large Early Tokens and Project Trust
● Lock-up expectations versus profit-taking reality: The market often holds idealized expectations of early holders as "long-term locked, deeply bound to the project," believing that such participants will prioritize the project's long-term development over short-term cashing out. However, in the face of prices rising several times and unrealized profits reaching millions of dollars, taking profits at certain stages also aligns with rational asset management logic. This gap between ideals and reality often translates into the community's sensitive emotions regarding project trust and token distribution.
● The unknown identity and boundaries of the address: Currently, there is no evidence in the public information that can establish a direct, verifiable connection between the 0x6b41 address and Pendle's official team members, nor are there reliable clues indicating it belongs to a specific institutional wallet. The briefing explicitly prohibits speculation or fabrication regarding the identity of the address holder, so on a narrative level, it can only be viewed as "an address holding early unlocked tokens," and cannot extend to accusations of "team dumping" or "institutional offloading."
● Information disclosure and transparency discussion: From the perspective of market trust, similar events may prompt the community to reassess whether the project has sufficiently disclosed information regarding the distribution of major addresses in allocation contracts, future unlocking rhythms, and potential concentrated selling pressure risks. A clearer view of address aggregation and timelines can help investors assess supply shock windows in advance, reducing the uncertainty of each unlocking or large transfer being treated as a "black swan," which is beneficial for establishing a more stable expectation management mechanism between the project and the community.
Can a 3.83 Million Transfer Rewrite the Trend?
● Reorganizing key elements of the event: The transfer of 1.8 million PENDLE (approximately 3.83 million USD) from the 0x6b41 address to Bybit, combined with the fact that these tokens come from early unlocking, current unrealized profits exceeding 3.5 million USD, and the background of open interest for PENDLE contracts on Bybit reportedly increasing by about 35%, collectively amplifies market concerns about short-term volatility and potential dumping. On the sentiment level, this is a typical narrative combination of "whale tokens + leverage heating up."
● Clearly delineating the boundaries of information and speculation: As of now, there are still several key information gaps: the true identity of the address is unknown, the specific transaction operations on Bybit are unknown, and subsequent on-chain flows are unknown. Under these premises, any claims about "inevitable sell-off," "already liquidated," or "sophisticated hedging strategies" exceed the current factual scope and belong to high-risk speculation. Respecting the boundaries of information is a prerequisite for maintaining rational judgment in a highly volatile market.
● Rational response on the operational level: For ordinary participants, a more pragmatic approach is to continuously track the changes in PENDLE balances on exchanges, trading volume, and derivative indicators (open interest, funding rates, basis), combined with the long-term fundamentals of the Pendle protocol and their own risk preferences, to make independent decisions, rather than emotionally following every action of a single whale address. Whether large tokens can rewrite short-term candlesticks depends on actual transactions and market absorption capacity, rather than amplified interpretations on social media.
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