In the Eastern Eight Time Zone this week, on-chain monitoring data shows that large fund addresses represented by 0xFB7…e0A3 and "Maji Dage" are concentrating on increasing their ETH long positions, taking action against the trend during the price pullback phase. On one side, ETH continues to weaken with a bearish sentiment, while on the other side, tens of millions of dollars in spot and high-leverage long positions are piling up simultaneously, creating a stark contrast. This article will focus on these two types of funding paths: first, 0xFB7 continues to accumulate spot (or near-spot) ETH through OTC and institutional channels; second, Maji Dage is amplifying leverage on HyperLiquid to bet on a short-term rebound, analyzing the signals released by "smart money" long positions, potential opportunity windows, and the amplified risk boundaries.
30,000 ETH Purchased by 0xF…
● Accumulation Path and Scale: On-chain data shows that address 0xFB7…e0A3 recently received 10,000 ETH in a single transaction through OTC with market maker Wintermute, amounting to approximately $28.96 million at the time. According to the report, its total accumulation during this round of decline has approached 30,000 ETH. Although the specific timing and matching details of each batch of accumulation are missing, the total amount and concentration indicate that it has formed a medium-sized institutional long position prototype.
● Profit and Loss Status and Cost Structure: According to data provided in the report, the average acquisition cost for 0xFB7's ETH accumulation is approximately $2,945.7 per coin, corresponding to a paper profit of about $973,000 at the current price level (data from a single source, still needs continuous verification). This means it is not "bottom fishing" at extreme lows but is choosing to accumulate in segments during the pullback, overall remaining in a small profit range, leaving room for further accumulation and reserving a certain safety cushion for subsequent adjustments.
● Capital Transfer Chain: In terms of capital flow, 0xFB7 is concentrating on acquiring ETH through the OTC path from Wintermute → 0xFB7, while transferring about $58.13 million in funds to the brokerage and institutional channel FalconX. In the absence of more granular data, a chain can be outlined: market makers and brokers provide OTC and intermediary liquidity, large addresses take over on-chain and redistribute or continue to allocate, thus completing large long migrations from OTC to on-chain without directly impacting the public order book.
OTC and Institutional Channel Whales…
● Reducing Slippage and Impact Costs: For large transactions of thousands of ETH, if placed directly on the exchange's spot order book, a single order can easily cause several percentage points of price impact, raising its own transaction costs and exposing intentions. By negotiating OTC transactions with market makers like Wintermute, prices are usually determined through spread negotiations based on reference market prices, completing large trades without disturbing the public order book, significantly reducing slippage and impact costs.
● Liquidity and Indirect Impact: Wintermute provides customized OTC liquidity, while FalconX leans more towards institutional brokerage and comprehensive execution channels, together forming a "dark pool + brokerage" system for large funds. On the surface, these transactions do not directly reflect in the accumulation of buy orders on the spot matching platform, but market makers and brokers ultimately need to balance risks through hedging and inventory management in the on-chain or other derivatives markets, thereby transmitting large demand into continuous passive buy demand or selling pressure release in a slower, more dispersed manner, indirectly and gently impacting prices.
● Comparison with Ordinary User Paths: Ordinary traders mostly place orders or execute at market prices directly in the exchange's spot or contract matching systems, with orders immediately entering the public order book, and transaction costs fully exposed to market fluctuations and depth conditions. For large addresses like 0xFB7, OTC and institutional channels can provide advantages in execution costs (slippage, fees) and discretion (avoiding being front-run and followed), but they are also constrained by counterparty credit, settlement arrangements, and regulatory compliance frameworks, making their flexibility not as high as small funds that can enter and exit at any time.
25x Leverage Shock from Maji Dage…
● Leveraged Long Position Profile: On-chain and platform data indicate that the "Maji Dage" address recently deposited about $419,700 USDC into HyperLiquid as margin to increase ETH long contract positions. The nominal value of the long position it holds on the platform is approximately $10 million, corresponding to a long position scale of 3,333.88 ETH, which, compared to 0xFB7's more spot-oriented approach, leans more towards leveraged betting on short to medium-term volatility trends.
● Leverage Multiple and Capital Efficiency: Using $419,700 in margin to leverage approximately $10 million in nominal value implies an implicit leverage multiple of about 25 times, with margin accounting for about 4% of the overall position value. This structure is extremely aggressive in terms of capital utilization efficiency: a small amount of own funds can amplify directional exposure, but with every 4% price fluctuation, it approaches consuming a full margin's floating space, with profits and drawdowns also being exponentially magnified, placing high demands on entry timing and risk control.
● Volatility Amplification and Liquidation Chain: In the current context of overall declining ETH prices and increased volatility, such high-leverage longs face not only single-direction risks but also path-dependent capital curve risks—sharp drops or spikes in a short time can trigger passive reductions, additional margin pressure, or even chain liquidations. Due to the report's clear lack of specific liquidation prices and precise leverage configurations, it is impossible to provide a liquidation range, but it can be confirmed that as leverage multiples rise, the speed of margin consumption corresponding to price fluctuations increases dramatically, and systemic "stomp" risks also rise accordingly.
Bearish Sentiment Meets Long Whale…
● Price Pullback and Sentiment Tone: According to the report, ETH has been continuously pulling back for some time, with overall market sentiment leaning bearish, and voices in the media and community about "breaking support" and "weakening trends" are increasing. Planet Daily commented, "These addresses continue to accumulate ETH near the bottom, showing that large funds are bullish on the future," reflecting that mainstream narratives still interpret such behavior as "bottom-fishing signals," while also highlighting the reflexive feedback between sentiment and price.
● Discrepancy Between Behavior and Trends: On one side, funds in the public market are generally cautious, and bearish sentiment in derivatives is heating up; on the other side, there are visible 30,000 ETH level spot longs from 0xFB7 and "Maji Dage's 25x leveraged longs accumulating simultaneously. This misalignment of prices going down while funds are going long indicates that some large addresses are not following the trend to short but are actively increasing long positions during the pullback, viewing the market's pessimistic sentiment as an opportunity to improve entry costs.
● Logic Behind Counter-Trend Accumulation: From a motivational perspective, this type of "smart money" counter-trend accumulation may be based on three considerations: first, a medium to long-term bullish outlook, believing that the current decline is more due to short-term liquidity and sentiment disturbances; second, utilizing liquidity vacuums during panic phases, taking over at better prices when sellers are eager to offload; third, a subjective judgment on the overall liquidity environment and risk-reward ratio, believing that the current downward space is limited while upward elasticity remains. However, these logics are general inferences and cannot replace direct evidence of the true intentions of a single address.
Smart Money Labels and Win Rate Myths…
● Origin of the "Smart Money" Narrative: Addresses like 0xFB7 and "Maji Dage" are labeled as "smart money" and "whales" by the community and media, usually stemming from their historical successful large trading cases and high attention on social platforms. However, this label is more a public consensus and narrative construction, not an official certification from any institution or protocol, and does not mean that every action they take can accurately hit the mark or consistently outperform the market.
● Unverified Historical Profit Claims: The report mentions a claim awaiting verification—that 0xFB7 has accumulated profits of about $98.18 million through ETH swing trading. In the absence of multi-source cross-verification and complete trading backtracking, this figure can currently only be regarded as rumor-level information, not to be treated as a solid fact, and cannot simply lead to conclusions like "this time their accumulation must be successful," avoiding being led by a single narrative.
● Boundaries Between Data and Myths: For ordinary investors, the key is to distinguish between actions clearly recorded on-chain (accumulation scale, path, leverage multiple, etc.) and the "win rate myth" that is continuously amplified in community dissemination. The success of a particular address at a certain stage does not automatically extrapolate to a long-term stable strategy, nor does it guarantee the replication of future profit paths. If these cases are simply viewed as reasons for "mindlessly copying," it often overlooks the significant differences in one's own capital size, risk tolerance, and cycle judgment.
Signal Reference Indicators for Counter-Trend Accumulation…
● Risk Structures of Two Types of Large Fund Behaviors: From the two main lines observed this time, 0xFB7 represents a long-term/medium-term long accumulation leaning towards spot or low leverage, trading scale and time for a smoother risk curve; "Maji Dage" represents short-term amplified betting through high-leverage contracts, trading extreme capital efficiency for a steeper profit and loss curve. The former is closer to asset allocation, while the latter resembles strategic trading; both are "longs," but the risk tolerance ranges and liquidation paths are entirely different.
● Medium to Long-Term Signals and Short-Term Risks: From the data, the accumulation of tens of thousands of ETH in spot and tens of millions of dollars in leveraged longs indeed reinforces the medium to long-term bullish signal for ETH—at least from the perspective of these large addresses, the current price range has certain attractiveness. However, at the same time, the liquidation and passive deleveraging risks faced by high-leverage positions in downward volatility cannot be ignored; once triggered, it may instead amplify downward pressure in the short term, forming a passive chain effect of "first looking long, then crashing."
● How to Use "Smart Money" as a Reference: For ordinary investors, a more realistic approach is to view these large on-chain actions as one of the reference factors, measuring them alongside their own cycle judgments, capital size, and risk tolerance, rather than as a single decision basis. Seeing "smart money" accumulating does not mean one should follow indiscriminately; understanding their position structure, leverage levels, and potential drawdown ranges is far more important than simply mimicking purchases. Whether counter-trend accumulation can be transformed into favorable returns ultimately depends on individual rhythm control and risk management, rather than the address label itself.
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