The brief spark of optimism that lifted Bitcoin above $97,000 last week appears to be fizzling out. BTC was recently trading at $93,192, erasing the gains that had traders hoping for a potential trend reversal.

The pullback comes amid a broader risk-off move across markets. President Trump's new tariffs on European nations over his administration’s pursuit of Greenland have spooked investors, sending capital rushing toward safe havens like gold, which hit a new record of $4,680 an ounce.

The global crypto market cap now sits at $3.15 trillion, down 2.38% from yesterday according to CoinMarketCap, with more than $800 million in leveraged long positions liquidated over the last 24 hours, according to CoinGlass.

The carnage is widespread. Of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap, only three are showing gains above 1% in the last day: Midnight, Quant, and Monero—which is on its own bullish run after a renewed interest in privacy coins.

Prediction market traders on Myriad appear cautiously optimistic despite the bloodbath. In the "Bitcoin's next move: Pump to $100K or Dump to $69K?" market, 82% of the money is betting on the upside scenario, a stable pattern in place since last week.



However, in another market asking whether Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high before July, 73% of the money is betting "no." Traders appear to expect a recovery, just not a parabolic one.

Beyond pure sentiment, the technicals also back this cautious optimism.

Still bullish, but…

Bitcoin has been recovering for weeks following its November lows near $80,000. Since then, it was able to briefly pierce above the Ichimoku Cloud—a "cloud" built from several moving averages to highlight dynamic support and resistance, and the prevailing trend—and test the $96,000 zone. That move has now reversed, with Bitcoin’s price retreating back below the EMA50—the average price of the last 50 days—which hovers around $93,000.

This is the critical issue. Bitcoin's much-celebrated golden cross—where the short-term moving average crosses above the long-term average—remains technically intact, but the gap between the two averages is narrowing. If price continues to slide this week and fails to reclaim the EMA50, then that bullish signal could be invalidated—as we warned in our previous analysis—before it ever produces meaningful upside.

The Average Directional Index or ADX sits at 32.7, which is above the 25 threshold that confirms an actual trend is in place—this is a strong reading and is confirmed by prices bouncing at a clear upwards support. This measures trend strength without considering directionality, but given that the last two months have been bullish overall, the direction still points towards a slow price hike.

The Relative Strength Index or RSI at 54.1 is squarely neutral, offering no clear directional bias. This is neither oversold enough to attract bargain hunters nor overbought enough to justify aggressive profit-taking. Overall, traders are not really crazy to buy or sell, with Bitcoin moving in low volume zones.

The verdict? Bitcoin needs to reclaim and hold above $95,000 this week to keep the golden cross narrative alive. A weekly close below $91,000 would flip the short-term structure decidedly bearish, and likely trigger another leg down toward the December lows.

Key levels to watch:

• Resistance:
  
  
  
  • $98,000 (EMA50/Cloud)
  
  
  • $100,000 (approximate breakdown level)
  
  
  • $108,757 (strong)
  
  
  
  


• Support:
  
  
  
  • $91,000 (immediate)
  
  
  • $80,000 (December low)
  
  
  
  

The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.

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