Ethereum # Bitcoin # Ethereum Real-time Analysis # Bitcoin Real-time Analysis

Hello everyone, I am Lao Lv. The entire decline is still within our prior expectations. If you are still catching up, I suggest reviewing our previous analysis. Now, Lao Lv's analysis will not be as frequent as before, mainly for two reasons: one is that the current market is moving slowly; frequent analysis means frequent trades, which increases the probability of errors. On the other hand, price movements are more accurate on the daily and four-hour timeframes, while other smaller timeframes have basically lost their effectiveness. This is also why it takes me about a week or even half a month to write an article. The main point of the last article was to remind everyone not to chase highs. The title of the last article was already a reminder: Bitcoin's major cycle resistance is at 96,777, and Ethereum is at $3,435. Bitcoin's rise slightly exceeded expectations, with Ethereum's price reaching a maximum of $3,403—one exceeded and one did not. This is how market movements work; the exact points may not be 100% accurate, but once the direction is wrong, it can lead to significant trouble. The direction determines life and death, while the points determine profit; this is something everyone needs to understand. Currently, both cryptocurrencies are within our expectations, so how should we determine the direction next? Let's hear Lao Lv's own views, for reference only.

Bitcoin has an upward pressure at $97,222. Earlier, we considered that this position might not be the limit, so we set the short position at $96,777. However, the price still tested this position. We need to pay attention to the pressure level at $97,222. If the daily line can hold above this, it will be heading towards $100,000. If it cannot stabilize, $97,900 will become the new starting point for a decline. At the same time, we also need to pay attention to the support level, which is $91,888. The key is whether it can continue to hold steady. We mentioned this position in the previous article, and it is also the level we expected it to drop to. Today, it was spot on, with the price dropping to a minimum of $91,816, and it has already started to rebound from this position. As we have repeatedly said, as long as you do not excessively look bullish or bearish, you will not suffer. If it goes above $97,000, you want to see $100,000; if it drops below $91,000, you want to see $85,000. The only one who will suffer is yourself. Therefore, maintain a calm mindset of going long after a decline and going short after a rise. Lao Lv is not criticizing everyone but rather telling you that since it has dropped to this extent, we should go long! Let me share my two personal views. The first view is that $91,888 is a bullish position we had already set up. Currently, the price is close to our expectation, and we will go with whichever side the price approaches; this is unrelated to being long or short. The second view is that the current market can only capture tops and bottoms. During the upward process, if you continue to look for middle positions to go long, it will generally lead to losses. Similarly, during the downward process, looking for middle positions to go short will also lead to losses. I believe everyone can see this. Therefore, Lao Lv's view is that since the price has now dropped to our expectation, we should continue to go long and not think about shorting for now. For shorting, we only focus on two points: one is a breakdown short, and the other is a top short. A breakdown short means we only consider a small rebound short if the price can break through the $91,888 support with a large bearish candle. The other is if the price continues to surge, we look for daily top resistance. For now, everyone should not rush; once there is significant volatility, we will analyze it at the scheduled time. $91,888 has already been tested once; we can continue to look bullish as it retests the $91,888-$92,000 range.

Bitcoin: Continue to go long at $91,888.

Ethereum: The overall rhythm is very good. Previously, I also wanted to short at a middle point, but it failed, which is why I mentioned in the Bitcoin analysis that once long and short positions are stuck at these middle points, the probability of losses is very high. Therefore, I do not recommend looking for short positions but rather looking for long positions below, as the price is close to the bottom support. In terms of operations, we only choose one side, either bottom or top. Previously, we looked for bullishness above $3,400 and anticipated a deep pullback; the rhythm was very good. Therefore, today, as the price pulls back, we still do not look for short positions above but continue to go long. Don't be misled by the continuous bearish candles on the daily line; it does not mean the bulls are gone. For the price to rise, it only needs one large bullish candle on the daily line. In our last analysis, we identified the pullback range at $3,207 and $3,190, which we had analyzed in advance. Today, we will use the same range, but we need to look at it on the hourly line. This morning at 8 AM, the price dropped significantly, threatening to break the $3,190 trend. However, at 9 AM, 10 AM, and 11 AM, the hourly lines consistently held the lowest points at $3,190, indicating that this support is still solid. Therefore, in terms of operations, we will remain unchanged and continue to go long. The lower limit is testing down to $3,135. If you are concerned about the extreme position, I suggest using a divided position to go long. Continue to maintain the view that the closer the price is to either side, the more we operate on that side.

Ethereum: Continue to go long near $3,195.

Today: Written by Lao Lv on January 19, 2026, at 11:54 AM. Note that all strategies are effective once and cannot be reused! Please refer to the text version and specific entry prices in the lower right corner of the image or video.

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